General trends of Armed Conflicts (Kegley and Wittkopf)

1
General trends of Armed Conflicts (Kegley and
Wittkopf)

• Less and less countries are involved in wars.
• Most wars occur in the Global South.
• The conquest of territory has ceased to be a
  motive for conflict.
• Wars among Great Powers are becoming obsolete.

2
However

• Conflict has hardly disappeared and since the end
  of World War II not a single day has gone by
  without a war being fought.
• International wars still occur.
• Civil wars still occur.
• Terrorism still occurs.

3
Why?Individuals Human Nature

• Aggression is an inherent part of human nature.
  The drive to power is innate.
• Not true, war is a learnt activity, we are
  socialised into it.
• Aggression is explained through the territorial
  imperative.
• Not true, territory can be defended through other
  means.
• Aggression is explained through the national
  character.
• Not true, history shows that the so-called
  national character does not exist.

4
Why?States Domestic Features

• Poverty drives to violence.
• Not true, poor countries almost never start
  conflicts.
• Geopolitical position.
• Not true, territory and location are not as
  important as they used to be.
• Type of government.
• Not true, democracies fight just as much as
  authoritarian states, if not more.
• Nationalism.
• Not true, nationalism needs not to be aggressive.
  

5
Why?Cycles of War in the System

• The nature of the international system with its
  emphasis on the sovereignty of the nation state
  is inevitably leading to conflicts.
• Not true, the cyclical pattern of war and peace
  can be broken and a lasting peace can be
  achieved.

6
So, what are the lessons?

• There are a number of lessons that can be learned
  from analysing armed conflicts.
• The nation-state is still important. Civil wars
  are a testimony to that. Nationalism matters.
• Explanations based on human nature have failed.
• Domestic politics matters.