Development%20of%20agricultural%20weather%20policy%20as%20it%20relates%20to%20climate%20issues

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Development of agricultural weather policy as it
relates to climate issues

• Ray Motha
• USDA

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Introduction

• --Key Points--
• Sustainable agriculture
• Agricultural weather climate extremes
• Agroclimatic system
• Risk management
• Agricultural weather policy

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Background - Agriculture

• The decline of ancient civilizations in
  Mesopotamia, the Mediterranean region,
  Pre-Columbian southwest U.S. and Central America
  is believed to have been strongly influenced by
  natural resource degradation from non-sustainable
  farming and forestry practices.
• Water is the principal resource that has helped
  agriculture and society to prosper, but it has
  been a major limiting factor when mismanaged.
• In drought years, limited water supplies depletes
  both surface and groundwater, with major
  consequences.

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Background - Agriculture

• Food production risen dramatically since 1940s
  due to new technologies, mechanization,
  pesticides and fertilizers, seed hybrids, farm
  management and government policies.
• While these changes have had many positive
  effects and reduced many risks in farming, there
  have also been significant costs that, if left
  unchecked, would cause great harm to the natural
  resources and environmental health.
• What are the vulnerable issues?

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Background AgricultureWater Resources

• Soil moisture reserves are an essential but
  limiting resource.
• Water quality involves such issues as
  salinization and contamination of surface and
  ground waters by pesticides and nitrates.
• Changing patterns of agriculture affect water
  resources through the destruction of riparian
  habitats within watersheds. The conversion of
  natural land to agricultural land reduces fish
  and wildlife through erosion and sedimentation,
  the effects of pesticides, removal of riparian
  plants and the diversion of water.

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Background AgricultureAir and Land Resources

• Many agricultural activities affect air quality.
  Smoke from agricultural burning dust from
  tillage pesticide drift from spraying and
  nitrous oxide emissions from the use of nitrogen
  fertilizer all contribute to air quality.
• Soil erosion continues to be a serious threat to
  the agricultural systems ability to produce
  adequate food.

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Background AgricultureSustainable Agriculture

• A growing movement has emerged during the past 25
  years to address these issues, and to offer
  innovative and economically viable opportunities.
  
• Concept of Sustainable Agriculture

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Sustainable Agriculture

• Goals environmental health economic
  profitability and socio-economic equity.
• Principle meet the needs of the present without
  compromising the ability of future generations to
  meet their own needs.
• Stewardship of both natural and human resources
  is of prime importance. Land and natural resource
  base needs to be maintained or enhanced for the
  long term.
• A systems perspective is essential to
  understanding sustainability from the
  individual farm to the local ecosystem and to
  communities affected by the farm.

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Sustainable Agriculture

• An emphasis on a systems approach allows more
  thorough interconnections between farming and
  other aspects of our natural environment.
• The transition to sustainable agriculture is a
  process, usually a series of small, realistic
  steps for farmers.
• However, it is important to note that reaching
  the goal of sustainable agriculture is the
  responsibility of all participants in the system.

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Sustainable Agriculture Farming Strategies

• Drought water conservation measures
  drought-tolerant crop species improved crop
  management practices.
• Water quality conversion of farmland to
  drought-tolerant forages or removal from
  production restoration of wildlife habitat or
  use of agroforestry to minimize impacts of
  salinity.
• Air Quality incorporate crop residue into soil
  reduce tillage plant wind breaks, crop covers
  and strips of native grasses to reduce dust.
• Soil reduce or eliminate tillage manage
  irrigation to reduce runoff and, keep soil
  covered with plants

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Sustainable Agriculture-Plant Protection
Strategies

• Selection of species and varieties well suited to
  site and condition of farm, including
  pest-resistant crops, topography, and climate.
• Diversified farming spreads economic risks and is
  less susceptible to instability in
  agro-ecosystem.
• Healthy soil is a key component of
  sustainability and, proper soil, water and
  nutrient management can help prevent some pest
  problems brought on by crop stress.
• Sustainable farmers rely on natural, renewable
  and on-farm inputs to develop efficient systems
  that do not need high levels of input.

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Sustainable Agriculture-Animal Production
Practices

• Farm capabilities and constraints, including feed
  and forage sources, landscape, climate and
  management must be factored into livestock
  operations.
• Long-term carry capacity, stocking rate, and
  proper grazing management are essential for both
  economic and environmental impacts.
• Animal health, waste management, and surface and
  ground water pollutants are growing issues of
  concern.

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Sustainable Agriculture-Summary

• By helping farmers to adopt practices that reduce
  chemical use and conserve scarce resources,
  sustainable agriculture research and education
  can play a key role in building public support
  for agricultural land preservation.
• Educating land use planners and decision-makers
  about sustainable agriculture is an important
  priority to promote environmentally safe farming
  practices, and to protect prime farmland and
  wildlife preserves from over-development.

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Agricultural Weather

• While focusing on sustainable agriculture,
  farmers have to cope with variable weather
  throughout the growing season, extreme events
  during the season, and changing climate patterns.
• Agriculture has learned to adapt to climate
  variability and climate change, but past changes
  have been relatively transitional.

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Climate Issues

• Agriculture has developed over time in a given
  region based on normal or average climate
  conditions.
• The frequency of occurrence of extreme climate
  conditions dictates the response of agriculture
  to climate variability/change.

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Extreme Events

• Examples
• hurricane
• flood
• tornado
• drought
• heat wave/cold wave
• winter storm (ice storm)
• new max and/or min (temperature, precipitation)

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Extreme Events

• How can extreme events change with climate
  change?
• Shift in the mean of a distribution, e.g. global
  warming of 0.6oC over the past century
• Variance of the distribution e.g. decrease in
  diurnal temperature variance, increase in
  precipitation variance over Sahel
• More or less skewed distribution e.g. decrease
  in weak storms, increase in stronger storms
• Increase in tropical events e.g. Hurricane or
  Tropical Cyclone

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Extreme Events

• Simple extremes
• higher maximum summer temperatures
• more hot summer days
• increase in heat index
• lower minimum winter temperatures (more frost
  days)
• more heavy 1-day precipitation events (increased
  intensity of precipitation events)
• more heavy multi-day events (increased intensity
  of precipitation events)

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Extreme Events

• Complex event-driven climate extremes
• more heat waves
• More cold waves
• more drought
• more wet spells (floods)
• more tropical storms
• more intense mid-latitude storms
• more intense ENSO events
• more common ENSO conditions

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Greenhouse Gas Concentrations(GHG)

• The concentrations of CO2, CO4, N2O and CFCs have
  been steadily increasing since the industrial
  revolution.
• Human activities are responsible for these
  increases, which, in turn, impact global
  temperatures, precipitation patterns and climatic
  variability.
• Climate change will alter agro-ecosystem.
• Agriculture can reduce the net GHG emissions that
  cause climate change by storing carbon in the
  soils and plants reducing emissions from
  livestock operations and, more efficient use of
  fertilizers.

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GHG- Carbon Sequestration

• Management practices Conservation
  tillage/no-till for row crops reduce summer
  fallow for wheat increase winter cover crops
  improver water nutrient use rotational
  grazing/improved grazing crops conversion of
  marginal croplands to grassland, forests, or
  wetlands.
• In addition to storing carbon in plant materials
  and in soil, greater benefits to these management
  practices include improved soil fertility
  productivity reduced soil erosion improved
  water quality and improved wildlife habitat.

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Agroclimatic SystemObjective

• Incorporates the physical properties of the
  atmosphere-land surface (vegetation) and
  hydrology interactions into the planning and
  management of agricultural (food and fiber)
  products.
• The objective of a such a system is to achieve a
  sustainable, optimized production level through
  the use of weather and climate information, while
  maintaining the environmental integrity and
  minimizing the degradation of the soil, nutrient
  and water resource base.
• Technology (fertilizers, new seed varieties,
  farming practices) is to be used to boost
  production as long as it is not detrimental to
  the resource base in the long term.

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Agroclimatic SystemRequirements

• A climatic observation systemstate of weather
• A biological and geophysical monitoring
  systemstate of land surface, soil, and
  vegetation
• An assessment system for land- and water-use
  strategies
• A data processing and information dissemination
  system to guide both operational and planning
  decisions
• A research component to establish or improve
  relations of weather and climate to soil and
  hydrology for various crop varieties.

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Agroclimatic SystemCommunication of Information

• Information for farmers/local decision makers
• Advisories on planting/harvesting dates etc.
• Disease reports, spraying advisories
• Irrigation scheduling
• Media reporting (telephone, newspaper, radio, TV,
  mail, Internet) of forecasts and advisories

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Agroclimatic SystemCommunication of Information

• Information for government/agro-business
• Land use planning, agricultural management
  strategies
• Water resource management
• Depletion/erosion of soil resources, economic
  evaluation of impact on yield

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A Call To Action

• Recognition of the urgent need for a
  comprehensive strategy to focus on climate
  change/variability, involving the combined
  efforts of federal, university and research
  institutions.
• Recognition of the urgent need for proactive
  planning activities rather than reactive response
  measures.

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Agroclimatic Risk Management Plan

• Vulnerability Analyses
• Impact Assessments
• Mitigation Planning
• Adaptation Strategies

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Adaptation Strategies

• 1. Adaptation measures are assessed in a
  developmental context.
• 2. Adaptation to short-term climate variability
  and extreme events are explicitly included as a
  step toward reducing vulnerability to longer-term
  climate change
• 3. Adaptation occurs at all levels, ranging from
  local to national and international levels.
• 4. Equal importance is placed on both the
  adaptation strategy and the process needed for
  its implementation .

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Integrated Climate Risk Management

• Preparedness to improve the effectiveness of
  response and recovery, such as establishing
  early-warning systems.
• Mitigation measures to prevent or reduce the
  impact of a catastrophic event prior to its
  occurrence.
• Adaptation strategies to prepare for and minimize
  the potential impacts of climate variability and
  climate change.

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Agricultural Weather and Climate Policy

• Develop an agricultural weather and climate
  policy with preparedness as its foundation
  (concept similar to U.S. National Drought
  Policy).
• Outline a course of action that includes a
  preparedness initiative to help reduce the
  economic hardships caused by extreme climate
  events.

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Agricultural Weather and Climate Policy

• Recommending a paradigm shift in policy from
  Response to Readiness.
• Goal Reduce the impacts of climate variability
  and change on the agricultural sector.
• Objective Preparedness must become the
  cornerstone of an agricultural weather and
  climate policy.

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Agricultural Weather and Climate Policy

• Preparedness is the key to a proactive policy.

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Agricultural Weather and Climate Policy

• GOAL 1
• Incorporate planning, implementation of plans and
  proactive mitigation measures, risk management,
  resource stewardship, environmental
  considerations, and public education as the key
  elements of an effective agricultural weather and
  climate policy.

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Agricultural Weather and Climate Policy

• GOAL 2
• Improve collaboration among scientists and
  managers to enhance the effectiveness of
  observation networks, monitoring, prediction,
  information delivery, and applied research, and,
  to foster public understanding of and
  preparedness for climate variability and change.

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Agricultural Weather and Climate Policy

• Implementation Process
• - Sustainable agriculture objectives
• - Vulnerability assessments
• - Potential climate variability/change
  analyses
• - Agroclimatic system requirements
• - Adaptation strategies.

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Summary

• Developing an agricultural weather and climate
  policy that addresses climate issues for policy
  makers and scientists would aid risk management,
  conservation of natural resources, and mitigation
  of climate variability/change.
• A win-win scenario!

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THANK YOU