SAE 599 Modeling and Simulation for Systems Architecting and Engineering - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 21
About This Presentation
Title:

SAE 599 Modeling and Simulation for Systems Architecting and Engineering

Description:

Review of basic structures and behaviors for continuous systems. Monte Carlo analysis ... Open book, calculator and computer* 6:30 9:10 on November 14 ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:38
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 22
Provided by: rayma5
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: SAE 599 Modeling and Simulation for Systems Architecting and Engineering


1
SAE 599 - Modeling and Simulation for Systems
Architecting and Engineering
  • Dr. Raymond Madachy
  • November 7, 2007

2
Outline
  • Review of basic structures and behaviors for
    continuous systems
  • Monte Carlo analysis
  • Homework review
  • Test preparations
  • Project discussions

3
Level Integration
  • Calculus integral
  • System dynamics code

Level(time) Level(time-dt) (inflow -
outflow)dt
4
Basic Structures
  • Rate/level system (no feedback)
  • Positive and negative feedback systems

5
Behaviors from Rate/Level Structure
6
Behaviors from Rate/Level Structure (cont.)
7
Behaviors from Feedback Structures
8
Rate and Level Worksheet
Level(time) Level(time-dt) (inflow -
outflow)dt
9
Monte Carlo Analysis
  • Monte Carlo is a "game of chance" technique that
    applies random sampling from known input
    probability distributions to create output
    distributions. It estimates the likely range of
    outcomes from a complex random process by
    simulating the process a large number of times.
  • The following steps are performed for n
    iterations in a Monte Carlo analysis, where an
    iteration refers to a single simulation run
  • For each random variable, take a sample from its
    probability distribution function and calculate
    its value.
  • Run a simulation using the random input samples
    and compute the corresponding simulation outputs.
  • Repeat the above steps until n simulation runs
    are performed.
  • Determine the output probability distributions of
    selected dependent variables using the n values
    from the runs.

10
Inverse Transform Method
  • A random number r is chosen that is uniformly
    distributed between 0 and 1. It is set equal to
    the cumulative distribution, F(x) r, and x is
    solved for. A particular value r0 gives a value
    x0, which is a particular sample value of X
  • x0 F-1(r0).

11
Monte Carlo Example Input Sampling
12
Monte Carlo Example Outputs
13
10/31 Homework Problem
14
10/31 Homework Problem (cont.)
15
10/31 Homework Problem (cont.)
16
10/17 Brookss Law Model Homework Review
  • Per Systems Architecting principles, ambiguous
    and unbounded problems require creative heuristic
    thinking, cut and run approaches
  • Choice of staffing levels, structures and
    resource allocation
  • Allocation between new and experienced separate
    flow chains for design and construction vs.
    sharing resources in existing personnel chain
  • Phasing and overlap assumptions
  • Unknown project size in lines of code
  • Provide rationale for your model architecting
    decisions
  • Due November 21

17
Resource Allocation Example
Squeaky wheel gets the grease
fractional resources to task 1 (task 1
backlog/task 1 productivity) / ((task 1
backlog/task 1 productivity) (task 2
backlog/task 2 productivity)) task 1 work
completion (total resources available
fractional resources to task 1) task 1
productivity
18
Reconciling COCOMO II Phase Distributions and
Dynamic Staffing Profiles
19
Test Logistics
  • Open book, calculator and computer
  • 630 910 on November 14
  • Remote DEN students will not be proctored, but
    are required to email or fax their tests to DEN
    at the end
  • open Internet only if 100 of students will
    have access

20
Test Topic Coverage
  • All lectures and demonstrations
  • Readings covered
  • Law-Kelton Textbook
  • Chapter 1 basic simulation modeling
  • Chapter 3 simulation software
  • Chapter 4 basic probability and statistics
  • Chapter 5 - validation
  • Software Process Dynamics
  • Chapter 1 (part) introduction to applied system
    dynamics modeling
  • Chapter 2 the modeling process with system
    dynamics
  • Chapter 3 model structures and behaviors
  • Appendix A statistics of simulation

21
Test Topic Coverage (cont.)
  • Homework problems
  • Tool survey
  • Discrete event simulations
  • Continuous simulation (10/31 problem on hardware
    components and defects not 10/17 Brookss Law
    model homework)
  • Be able to simulate by hand
  • Discrete event scenarios (e.g. waiting times,
    queue lengths)
  • Continuous systems levels from rate inputs
  • Monte Carlo random variate generation
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com