Atmospheric composition

1
Atmospheric composition Hennie Kelder et
al. KNMI, TU Eindhoven, NL
2

• Examples of Achievements
• Examples of Challenges
• Future needs

3
Ozone near real time delivery,assimilation and
forecastingAnalysis vs TOMS 15 April 2001
4
The ozone hole above Antarctica in 2006
5
Stratospheric chemical forecast based on MIPAS
www.bascoe.oma.be
Courtesy Dominique Fonteyn
6
Tropospheric information SCIAMACHY/GOME/OMI air
quality
Courtesy of J. Gleason, NASA-GSFC, and J.P.
Veefkind, KNMI
OMI Tropospheric NO2 (Jan.-June 2006)
7
Better emission and sink estimates of greenhouse
gases, example methaan
Inverse modelling
8
(No Transcript)
9
Stratospheric Ozone and Surface UV Radiation
Service

• Products
• Global ozone columns (record, NRT, forecasts) and
  profile (record)
• Global UV records
• On-demand personalized sunburn-time
  information
• Delivery status
• all products, except records, currently
  operational with daily delivery
• Users (Service Level Agreements, SLA)
• Full range of users international, national,
  local, citizens

10
ESATropospheric Emission Monitoring Internet
Service

11
Ozonverlies waargenomen en verwachtingen voor de
komende dagen
12
The GEMS Project
Global regional Earth-system Monitoring using
Satellite and in-situ data EU 6FP, GMES,
2005-2009, ECMWF lead, 27 partners Subprojects
Greenhouse gases Reactive gases Aerosols R
egional air quality Production Validation
13
(No Transcript)
14
(No Transcript)
15

• Challenges

16
Climate chemistry interaction sensitivity for
ozone changes
Climate-chemistry coupling
?T ? ?F
It matters where greenhouse gas concentrations
change ! Dedicated satellite observations in
tropopause regions
17
Climate-chemistry couplingImpact of climate
change on troposperic ozone Challenge accurate
estimates of tropospheric column
Trop.Ozone cloud slicing method, Ziemke et al.
MLS/OMI tropospheric ozone,Monthly average July
and October 2005, Ziemke et al., JGR 2006
24 and 28 June 2005
18
Satellite observations of the tropospheric
composition Some challenges Better
understanding of NO2 distribution and its changes
in time
Sat
NO2 is produced by combustion. There is less
combustion on the Days of Rest.
(Beirle et al., ACP, 2003)
19
Tropospheric satellite observationschallenge
information on diurnal behaviour
20
Better estimate of trends in emissions by inverse
modelling is needed
21
Integration of atmospheric chemistry observations
bynext generation global/hemispheric and
regional NWP models
Satellite
Air quality prediction
Assimilation
Model
Surface network
22
Integration Surface - Model - Satellite
23
GEMS assimilation approach
Extension of the existing 4D-Var operational
system of ECMWF to greenhouse gases, reactive
gases and aerosols Supplemented by assimilation
and inverse modelling approaches
24
Surface ozone assimilation
observations no optimisation
initial value opt.
emis. rate opt.
joint emis ini val opt.
assimilation interval
forecast
Courtesy Hendrik Elbern, Köln
25
Are models good enough ?GOME nadir profile
assimilation
Segers et al., Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc., 131,
477-502, 2005
26
Total ozone anomaly correlation
meaningful forecasts up to 7 days (outside the
tropics) UV index forecast
27
Ozone Findings and challenges
Satellite ozone measurements and
assimilation Many instruments measuring ozone,
but small fraction assimilated operationally To
tal ozone measured accurately by UV-Vis
spectrometers Still lack of tropospheric
satellite ozone measurements Challenges
1. Create operational analyses and re-analyses
based on multiple- satellite observations
limb-nadir, trop-strat-meso 3D view 2. Realistic
tropospheric analyses, e.g. by combining total
ozone observations, stratospheric profile
observations and well tuned data assimilation
scheme. Improve retrievals specifically with
respect to troposphere.
28
Ozone modelling Findings and challenges
Ozone modeling Dynamical features in the
lower stratosphere (and total column
anomalies) modelled well with considerable
detail Ozone and clear-sky UV forecast work
well useful up to D7, also for extreme events
like sudden warmings Challenge Find
efficient way to accurately represent ozone
chemistry in NWP models All ingredients of the
models characterised by uncertainties Sources
and sinks often based on yearly-total
emissions, with added simple time
variation needed detailed temporal description
(diurnal, weekly, seasonal) dep. on
meteorological conditions, incidental releases
(fires) top-down inversions Convection,
boundary layer mixing Transport (eg
Brewer-Dobson) Chemistry (eg hydrocarbon
chemistry, heterogeneous)
29
Assimilation Meteo vs chemistry
Thoughts Maturity - chemical assimilation new
field Chemical time scales from seconds to
years. Length scales global to street level.
Can a single model/assimilation approach be
sufficient/efficient ? Involvement of sources
and sinks and need for combined inverse
modelling/assimilation. Look for parameters
with the longest memory emissions are often
more constant factor than concentration Strong
correlations between species (intrinsic
multivariate)
30
Tropospheric chemistry
Assimilation, inverse modelling Few studies up
to now. Focus on CO from MOPITT. Joint state
emission 4D-Var promising approach for all
tropospheric tracers. Challenge Set up
assimilation/inverse modelling approaches for
tropospheric chemistry. Use of satellite
observations to improve tropospheric chemistry
models, emission inventories, air-quality
forecasts.
31

• Future needs

32
Data issues (IGACO/Capacity reports)

• Satellite
• Operational satellites to be preferred.
  Long-term availability. (for operational and
  reanalysis purposes)
• Near-real time (air-quality monitoring vs
  long-lived tracers) ?
• How good/useful are present-day satellite
  observations of the tropospheric composition
  (gases, aerosols) for air-quality and chemical
  weather applications? Sampling, accuracy. How to
  improve?
• Satellite data post Envisat/Aura? (GEMS
  operational 2009)
• Ground
• Surface networks and long-term measurements
  (aircraft) What is needed for
  assimilation/monitoring.
• Long-term stable high quality data sets, common
  standards for calibration retrieval for
  satellite and assimilation calibration, stations
  at optimal locations (tropics, SH, remote
  polluted areas)

33
Data/assimilation issues (IGACO/Capacity)
Biases (systematic retrieval errors) are the
first concern. Biases need to be characterised
and removed as much as possible before the
assimilation. Osses (Observations system
simulation experiments) important tool for
Testing the impact of (future) satellite (and
other) instruments.e.g. Impact of SCIA
observations of CH4 on emission
estimates. Auxillary data sets
cloud/aerosols/surface reflectivity for trace gas
retrievals, fire observations and on-line
emission modelling for the models. Is this
satisfied by future missions? Coordinated data
assimilation activity in Europe concerning the
Earth system. Effort in data assimilation very
minor compared to cost of satellite projects.
34

• Mission concepts for operational atmospheric
  chemistry monitoring
• 2010-2020 for air quality, climate change and
  ozone layer.
• ESA CAPACITY study
• Main gaps in current / planned operational system
• High temporal/spatial resolution space-based
  measurements of tropospheric (PBL) composition
  for application to Air Quality
• Climate gases (CO2, CH4 and CO), aerosol
  monitoring with sensitivity to PBL
• High vertical resolution measurements in UT/LS
  region for Ozone layer and Climate applications
• Recommendations from CAPACITY(In line with IGACO)
• to implement a system of GEO and LEO satellites
• Implement 1 LEO satellite with UV-VIS-SWIR
  payload for global air quality and climate
  protocol monitoring with small pixel sizes as
  soon as possible
• Perform a trade-off between GEO LEO and LEO
  constellation in inclined orbit, and implement
  complete air quality climate protocol
  monitoring mission
• Consolidate choice and requirements of
  instruments for a UT/LS mission for climate and
  ozone NRT and assessment applications, and
  implement the mission

35
ESA Camelot 2007-2009 Study objectives

• Contribute to the definition of the air quality
  and climate protocol
• monitoring parts of GMES Sentinels 4 and 5 in
  time frame 2012-2020.
• Key issues are
• Comparison of advantages and disadvantages of
  three orbit configurations
• Recommendations for an optimum configuration to
  meet user needs and a practicable implementation
  schedule
• These recommendations will take into
  consideration opportunities and constraints
  arising from other components of the future
  operational system, principally Eumetsat's MTG,
  EPS and post-EPS and US NPOESS
• Factors which determine observational attributes
  (i.e. compliance with user requirements) and
  efficacy (i.e. potential value to the
  applications) including geographical coverage and
  impact of clouds on spatio-temporal sampling.

36
Ongoing European and international activities

• GMES (ESA /EU/EUMETSAT), Global Monitoring
  Environment and Security satellite missions for
  atmospheric chemistry
• Sentinel 4 (GEO)
• Sentinel 5 (LEO)
• EUGAS, GMES Atmospheric Services
• ESA Earth explorer missions
• National initiatives for air quality/climate
  mission in GMES context,
• Nl, Be, UK, Fi,..
• GEMS / PROMOTE /TEMIS/ O3SAF (gt MACC), user
  service based on satellite data
• GEOSS, air quality in societal benefit areas,
  integrated approach
• WMO, Strategy 2008-2015, Global Atmosphere Watch,
  Implementation IGACO recommendations, integrated
  approach ground, in-situ and satellite data,
  models, data assimilation

37
The Six Candidate Core Missions

• ESA EE7 Candidate missions for phase 0 study
• BIOMASS
• A BIOMASS Monitoring Mission for Carbon
  Assessment
• TRAQ
• TRopospheric composition and Air Quality
• PREMIER
• PRocess Exploration through Measurements of
  Infrared and millimetre-wave Emitted Radiation,
• FLEX
• FLuorescence Explorer
• A-SCOPE
• Advanced Space Carbon and Climate Observation of
  Planet Earth
• Core-H2O
• Cold Regions Hydrology High-resolution
  Observatory
• Potential for monitoring or pre-operational
  monitoring

38
ESA explorer mission candidate TRAQ Payload
TROPOMI Backscatter instrument (trop) columns of
O3, NO2, SO2, HCHO, aerosols CO and CH4.Swath
2600, 10 x 10 km2 Heritage Aura-OMI,
Envisat-Sciamachy SIFTI (FTIR) O3, CO, CH4
trop columns and profiles with intelligent
pointing for cloud free pixels.Swath 2000 km, 10
x 10 km2 Heritage IASI OCAPI POLDER type of
instrument AOD, single scattering albedo (w0),
Air quality index (AQI), aerosol sizes and
aerosol type.Swath 2000 km, 5 x 5 km2 Heritage
POLDER, PARASOL
39
National initiative( NL, Be, UK, Fi,) precursor
candidate Tropomi Payload
TROPOMI Backscatter instrument (trop) columns
of O3, NO2, SO2, HCHO, aerosols CO and
CH4.Swath 2600, 10 x 10 km2 Heritage Aura-OMI,
Envisat-Sciamachy
40
Conclusions

• In last decade European satellite instruments
  are providing key information on ozone/UV,
  climate and air quality by GOME, MIPAS, GOMOS,
  SCIAMACHY, OMI, GOME-2 and IASI
• Assimilation of atmospheric composition data is
  a field in strong development and is an essential
  element to use in an optimal way observations
• Infrastructure and user services have been set
  up for a wide variety of user from public, health
  and environmental authorities to scientists and
  policy makers through ESA Promote, O3SAF and EU
  funded project GEMS/MACC
• In the next years the user community is growing
  further and GMES Atmospheric user Services will
  reach maturity due to EU, ESA and EUMETSAT and
  national efforts
• In the next decade the satellite part of the
  information regarding air quality and climate
  will be significantly reduced in capacity in
  Europe. The perspectives after 2018 and later are
  more positive.
• Maintaining a mature satellite component and
  mature user services requires decisions in the
  near future by ESA, EU, EUMETSAT and European
  countries