Globalisasi dan Kita

1
Globalisasi dan Kita

• Rizal Mallarangeng
• Freedom Institute
• Pelatihan wartawan muda
• Lido, 9 Juni 2006

2
What an extraordinary episode in the economic
progress of man that age was which came to an end
in August 1914 The inhabitant of London could
order by telephone, sipping his morning tea in
bed, the various products of the whole earth, in
such quantity as he might see fit, and reasonably
expect their early delivery upon his doorstep he
could at the same moment adventure his wealth
in any quarter of the world and share, without
exertion or even trouble, in their prospective
fruits and advantages Most important of all,
he regarded this state of affairs as normal,
certain, permanent, except in the direction of
further improvement the internationalization of
which was nearly complete in practiceJM
Keynes,The Economic Consequences of the Peace,
1919
3
Source Nicholas Craft, Globalization and Growth
in the Twentieth Century, IMF Working Paper
WP/00/44 (Washington DC International Monetary
Fund, 2000)
4
Aspect of Economic GlobalizationForeign Direct
Investment (FDI)Source The Economist
270
150
15
5
Private-sector capital flowsto developing
countriesSource The Economist
300
170
15
6
Money-go-aroundBond and equities,
1980100Source The Economist
7
Globalisasi meningkatkan kesejahteraan?
8
Growth in GDP per head 1820 1998 (annual
average compound growth rates, per cent)
9
(No Transcript)
10
(No Transcript)
11
(No Transcript)
12
(No Transcript)
13
(No Transcript)
14
Cina prestasi besar

• FDI 2005 USD 50 miliar
• FDI dalam 10 tahun terakhir USD 600 miliar
• Pengurangan kemiskinan dalam 10 tahun terakhir
  300 juta jiwa
• Pertumbuhan GDP per tahun /- 9.5 persen

15
Mengapa globalisasi meningkatkan kesejahteraan?

• Though my heart may be left of center, I have
  always known that the only economic system that
  works is a market economy. This is the only
  natural economy, the only kind that makes sense
  because it is the only one that reflects the
  nature of life itself. The essence of life is
  infinitely and mysteriously multiform, and
  therefore it cannot be contained or planned for,
  in its fullness and variability, by any central
  intelligence.
• Vaclav Havel,
• Summer Meditations, 1992

16
Apakah globalisasi lebih adil dan lebih mendorong
pemerataan, equality?
17
(No Transcript)
18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
Apakah globalisasi baik buat demokrasi?
21
demokrasi danpembangunan ekonomi
22
Tiga gelombang demokratisasi
23
Indonesia dalam globalisasi di mana posisi kita?
24
(No Transcript)
25
Jumlah penduduk miskinIndikator BPS
55
37
22
26
Pertumbuhan ekonomidan proyeksi kemiskinan
(under 2/day)
57
47
42
36
We are talking about 11 difference, or 24
million people
27
GDP Indonesia Proyeksi Pertumbuhan
5200
4000
3300
2700
28
Pertumbuhan ekonomi dan tenaga kerja

• Pertumbuhan 1 GDP menyerap 450.000 tenaga kerja
  baru
• Setiap tahun 2,5 juta pendatang kerja baru
• Setiap tahun, dibutuhkan pertumbuhan GDP 5-6
  untuk menyerap angkatan kerja baru

• Jumlah pengangguran terbuka 2003 9.1 juta
• Setengah penganggur (terselubung) 40 juta

29
Investasi di Indonesia
Foreign Direct Investment
Domestic Investment
40
120
100
17
54
40
25
8.5
10
4.7
) Semester pertama
30
Pengeluaran rutin APBN 2005(Rp 337 trilyun)
31
Anggaran pendidikan, etc

• Total pengeluaran APBN 2005 Rp 542 trilyun
• Anggaran pendidikan (Departemen) Rp 26 t 4.7
  dari APBN
• Subsidi Bbm Rp 101 t
• Dep Kesehatan Rp 11 t
• Dep PU Rp 19 t
• Dep Sosial Rp 2 t

32
Globalisasi Ancaman atau peluang?
FDI ratio to GDP ()
33
Negara dan ekonomi

• Yang perlu diperhatikan
• Perekonomian nasional diselenggarakan berdasar
  atas demokrasi ekonomi dengan prinsip
  kebersamaan, efisiensi berkeadilan,
  berkelanjutan, berwawasan lingkungan,
  kemandirian. (33-5)

• Pasal 33 dan 34 relatif tanpa perubahan berarti

34
Komposisi ideologi ekonomipartai-partai besar
liberal
Golkar
sekular
agama
PKB
PDIP
PAN
PPP
Demokrat
PKS
Pro-negara
35
Terima kasih