What You Didn

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What You Didnt Know About Global Warming (and
the current funk the sun is in)Myron Cook
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The Columbia Ice Field and Athabasca Glacier
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Athabasca Glacier
Has retreated about 5000 since 1884.
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Along the Trail to the Athabasca Glacier
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Maximum extent of continental glaciers 15,000 yrs
BP (Wisconsin stage)
The core of the ice sheet was about 8,000 feet
thick.
Cordilleran Ice Sheet
Laurentide Ice Sheet
In North Dakota, the ice sheet was about
4,000-5000 feet thick.
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15,000 yrs of Melting History
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We are currently sitting on the top of a peak
like this last one.
The scale has been stretched to show the top of
our current peak.
The special time we live in is called an
interglacial. Normally, about 90 of the time,
much of North America is covered with ice.
1.0 deg C 1.8 deg F
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Our Recent HistoryVostok Ice Core Data
Antarctica
Major cycles every 100,000 yrs
Wisconsin
Illinois
Pre-Illinois
During the Pre-Illinoian Stage, 11 distinct
glacial periods have been recognized
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Explaining Glacier Cycles
Milankovitch cycles
Named after a Serbian civil engineer and
mathematician.
Because the observed periodicities of climate fit
so well with the orbital periods, the orbital
theory has overwhelming support.
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Science
Montaigne's axiom "Nothing is so firmly believed
as what we least know."
There are three claims that have widespread
scientific support Richard Lindzen MIT
1) Global temperature has risen about 1 degree F
since the late 19th century.
2) Levels of CO2 in the atmosphere have increased
by about 30 over the same period.
3) CO2 should contribute to future warming.
However, what the public fails to grasp is that
the claims neither constitute support for alarm
nor establish man's responsibility for the small
amount of warming that has occurred.
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Our Atmosphere
Since CO2 is at the center of anthropogenic (man
made) global warming hypothesis, it would be
useful to review our atmosphere composition.
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Relative Strength of Greenhouse Gases
Carbon Dioxide 72.4 Methane 7.2 Nitrous
Oxide 19.0 CFCs, etc. 1.4
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But Wait Theres More!
Water vapor and clouds overwhelm all other
natural and man-made greenhouse contributions.
Water vapor and clouds constitutes Earth's most
significant greenhouse contributor, accounting
for about 95 of Earth's greenhouse effect.
Interestingly, many "facts and figures' regarding
global warming completely ignore the powerful
effects of water vapor in the greenhouse system,
carelessly (perhaps, deliberately) overstating
human impacts.
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Diminishing Effect of CO2 With Increasing
Concentrations
1.0 deg C 1.8 deg F
Temperature Change deg C
Level of CO2 before man-made effects.
Level of CO2 at glacial maximum.
Current Level of CO2
CO2 Concentration ppm
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Climate Modeling
We have the new paradigm where simulation and
programs have replaced theory and observation.
Richard Lindzen Prof Atmospheric Science MIT
Nearly all of the global warming hypothesis is
based on computer models. These models claim to
predict the effects of CO2 on climate systems
and, ultimately claim to predict future
temperatures.
Future
Natural
History
Temp.
Time
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Chaos and Predictability
First Run
In 1960 Edward Lorenz was working on the problem
of weather prediction. He had a computer set up
with a set of twelve equations to model the
weather.
Climate Scientists need to get back in touch with
Reality by testing their models (hypothesis,
theory) against hard, empirical evidence.
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Predictability
Nearly every phenomena in nature is non linear or
chaotic making them highly unpredictable at most
scales. Chaotic systems include things like
weather, climate, turbulent air and water flow,
and wave behavior.
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Temperature Deviation Deg C
425,000 yrs
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The IPCC Models
1.0 deg C 1.8 deg F
All but one or two models accelerate through
time. Straight red line for reference.
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Historical Temperature/CO2 Relationship
Temperature begins to fall and later, 1000-3000
yrs, CO2 begins to fall.
Temperature
Increasing Temperature CO2
CO2
Time
Temperature begins to rise and later, on average
1000 yrs, CO2 begins to rise.
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Temperature Stations
One of the most important inputs to modeling is
historical temperature data.
Lets review the main source of US based
temperatures which is named the United States
Historical Climatology Network (USHCN)
The USHCN currently has 1221 stations
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In 1979, government specifications for the type
of paint used to paint Stevenson Screens changed
from whitewash to latex paint.
Anthony Watts, a meteorologist, became interested
in the paint properties of Stevenson Screens and
initiated a study.
Stevenson Screens
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Anthony Watts went out to see if the government
had been repainting with latex and this is what
he saw. This revelation changed the whole course
of his study.
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Watts decided to organize a blog and recruit
volunteers to check all of the stations and
document what government class (quality) they
fell into.
NOAA's Climate Reference Network Specifications.
What he is finding is quite astonishing, a full
69 of stations are experiencing measurement
errors of 2 deg C or more.
Classes 1 and 2 have no significant error. Class
3 (CRN3) (error gt1C) Class 4 (CRN4) (error gt
2C) - Artificial heating sources lt10
meters.Class 5 (CRN5) (error gt 5C) -
Temperature sensor located next to/above an
artificial heating source, such a building, roof
top, parking lot, or concrete surface."
NASA reports their global temperature
measurements within one one-hundredth of a degree.
70 of USHCN network surveyed (860 of 1221
Stations)
error gt 2C
error gt 5C
error gt1C
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Correcting and Changing Data
That corrections to climate data should be
called for, is not at all surprising, but that
such corrections should almost always be in the
needed direction is exceedingly unlikely.
Richard Lindzen, MIT
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Hockey Stick Graph
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A NASA Blunder
James Hansen reported that 1998 was the hottest
year ever in the US (based on their processed
data) which was reported extensively in the
media. This was a clear sign of recent global
warming.
After the fix, 1934 remained the hottest year on
record. In fact, 3 of the top 5 hottest years are
in the 1920s and 1930s.
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Another Blunder
In November 2008, NASA's Goddard Institute for
Space Studies (GISS), run by Dr James Hansen,
announced that October 2008 was the "hottest on
record". 
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The First Casualties of Global Warming
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Flatulence A Greenhouse Gas
In an attempt to understand the extent of cow
flatulence on global warming, scientists in
Argentina are strapping plastic bags to the backs
of cows to capture their emissions.
They were surprised to find that a single 550-kg
cow produces between 800 to 1,000 liters of
emissions each day.
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Politicization/Sensationalism
Al Gores An Inconvenient Truth was released in
May of 2006 for which he won two academy awards.
Ultimately, his work lead to him being awarded
the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007
I want to testify today about what I believe is
a planetary emergency - a crisis that threatens
the survival of our civilization and the
habitability of the Earth.Al Gore
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Politicization/Sensationalism
Alarm rather than genuine scientific curiosity,
it appears, is essential to maintaining funding.
And only the most senior scientists today can
stand up against this alarmist gale, and defy the
iron triangle of climate scientists, advocates
and policymakers. Richard Lindzen Prof
Atmospheric Science MIT.
Dr. John Christy (IPCC) We have a vested
interest in creating panic because then money
will flow to climate science.
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Time From heat waves to storms to floods to
fires to massive glacial melts, the global
climate seems to be crashing around us.
Time And with sea ice vanishing, polar
bearsprodigious swimmers but not inexhaustible
onesare starting to turn up drowned.
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March 08- Vast Antarctic Ice Shelf on Verge of
Collapse - Latest Sign of Global Warmings Impact
Shocks Scientists
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Jan 09 New study finds Antarctica warming at
0.22 deg Fahrenheit per decade since 1957.
journal Nature
Feb 09 Scientists say the collapse of the West
Antarctic Ice Sheet would have such profound
effects it would shift the planet's rotation.
Feb 09 Antarctic ice sheet collapse may swamp
U.S. coasts with sea levels in some places higher
by 21 feet or more than today, the researchers
wrote in the journal Science.
It would take over 2,600 yrs just to get the
warmest month to 32deg F !
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Quiet Headlines
Feb 08- In some parts of China and central Asia,
snow fell for the first time in living memory,
the NCDC noted.
Sept 08- Anchorage Alaska "With only two days
above 70 degrees this year, that sets a new
record for the fewest days to reach 70,''
Since about 1970, many of the glaciers have
stopped retreating and some are now advancing
again. And, frankly, we don't know why. Richard
Lindzen
Feb 07- Experts question theory on global warming
(Himalayan glaciers not shrinking) Study of 50
glaciers.
January 5, 2001 NOAA scientists announced today
that the U.S. national temperature during the
November through December two-month period was
the coldest such period on record.
Jul 08- All seven glaciers on Californias Mount
Shasta are growing.
Feb 08- China is surviving its most brutal winter
in one hundred years.
Feb 09- Britan is in the grip of the coldest
winter in 30 yrs.
Jan 09- How cold is it? Flint's (Michigan)
95-year-old record low falls as 19 below zero
hits city. The previous record? Minus 10, set in
1914.
March 09- Edmonton Canada breaks coldest day in
March record by 22 deg F (-42 deg F).
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Report Card for IPCC Modeling
Albert Einstein once said, No amount of
experimentation can ever prove me right a single
experiment can prove me wrong. 
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The 29-year global warming trend is 1.5 degC
(2.5deg F) per century.
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Temperature for Last Eight Years
Not one of the climate models relied upon by the
IPCC predicted this downturn.
Experts warned that global warming would return
with a vengeance in 2009.
The Max Planck Institute moved the date for
anticipated resumption of warming to 2015.
"This is nothing like anything we've seen since
1950," Kyle Swanson of the University of
Wisconsin-Milwaukee said. "Cooling events since
then had firm causes, like eruptions or
large-magnitude La Ninas. This current cooling
doesn't have one.
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Sea Level Gores Armageddon scenario is not
occurring
12.6/ 100yrs
Al Gore Sea level could rise up to 20 feet. An
Inconvenient Truth James Hansen Sea level could
rise as much as 246 ft.
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Arctic sea-ice extent has declined about 3 in
the 29 years of satellite records.
About 500,000 sq km below normal or about 3 of
total ice area.
Al Gore Entire north polar ice cap will be gone
in 5 years Dec. 2008.
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Hurricane and tropical cyclone activity reached
new low in 2008
Al Gore We can expect more storms like Katrina
in a greenhouse-warmed world.
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Our Sun
Typical Sun
A sunspot is a region on the Sun's surface that
is marked by intense magnetic activity, forming
areas of reduced surface temperature.
Overall, more sunspots increase the sun's solar
brightness (rims are brighter). However, this
effect is very small and shouldnt affect global
temperatures significantly.
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Sunspot Cycles
10.7 year cycles 7-16yr range
The period of the Dalton Minimum was the last
time the Thames froze over in the City of London.
The Little Ice Age in the late 17th century was a
period when the Thames regularly froze over.
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Scientists Issue Unprecedented Forecast ofNext
Sunspot Cycle
BOULDERThe next sunspot cycle will be
30-50 stronger than the last one
The scientists have confidence in the
forecast because, in a series of test runs, the
newly developed model simulated the strength of
the past eight solar cycles with more than 98
accuracy.
March 6, 2006 The scientists expect the cycle to
begin in late 2007 or early 2008, which is about
6 to 12 months later than a cycle would normally
start.
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When Will Solar Cycle 24 Start?
April 09
As of April 09, we are 109 months from the peak
of cycle 23. It is now too late to get a late
19th century-type outcome for cycle 24.
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Cosmic Rays and Clouds
The solar winds from sun spots help protect us
from cosmic rays.
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Observation
Troposheric Temperature Correlation to Cosmic Rays
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The Next Ice Age
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Closing Thoughts
This could be remembered as the greatest mass
delusion in the history of the world - that CO2,
the life of plants, was considered for a time to
be a deadly poison. Richard Lindzen MIT
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Thank You
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Headlines
Flesh-eating disease is on the rise due to global
warming, experts warn.
WASHINGTON - Another reason to worry about global
warming more and itchier poison ivy. AP
"We're looking at a scenario where there's no
more agriculture in California." "I don't
actually see how they can keep their cities
going" either. Sec Energy Seven Chu Feb 3, 09
Increasing levels of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the
atmosphere will slow the Earth's rotation,
increasing the length of a day. Belgium's Royal
Observatory
As the oceans warm up, Earth will start rotating
faster, reducing the length of a day. Max Planck
Institute
The trains carrying coal to power plants are
death trains. Coal-fired plants are factories of
death. James Hansen 09
Global warming can potentially cause an
additional 2 million kidney stone cases.
Hamburgers are the Hummers of food in global
warming.
More Shark Attacks Global Warming to Blame?
Gender inequalities will likely worsen with
climate change.
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Websites
http//wattsupwiththat.com/
This is probably my favorite website. I think
this site has the most consistent even-handed
science. You can learn a lot by going into their
archives etc. Also, posts from others is often
quite interesting.
http//www.climateaudit.org/
A good blog but often gets quite technical on the
statistics side.
This is the major blog that all the pro
anthropogenic global warmers use. I use it a lot
to get both sides of the debate.
http//realclimate.org/
http//icecap.us/
This website has political roots but also tracks
good science papers and commentary.
Provides some thoughtful insight.
http//www.climate-skeptic.com/
A higher end site where one can find a lot of
interesting published papers.
http//climatesci.org/
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Correcting Ocean Cooling
Not surprisingly, says Willis wryly, that paper
got a lot of attention, not all of it the kind a
scientist would appreciate. In speaking to
reporters and the public, Willis described the
results as a speed bump on the way to global
warming. On blogs and radio talk shows, global
warming deniers cited the results as proof that
global warming wasnt real and that climate
scientists didnt know what they were doing.
In 2006, Josh Willis updated the ocean
temperatures for 2003-2005. Surprisingly, the
ocean seemed to have cooled.
According to Argos data analysis, the ocean
energy has dropped 20 percent starting in 2003.
It wasnt a large number of floats, but the data
were bad enough, so that when I tossed them, most
of the cooling went away. But there was still a
little bit, so I kept digging and digging.
The Argos systems with 5,000 drifting buoys,
1,500 deep floats, and 300 moored buoys and fixed
stations, fitted with transmitters, are measuring
ocean properties in real time.
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NASAS Temperature Corrections
NASA continually updates their interpretations of
the raw data to account for inaccuracies.
Curiously, they dont correct for the Urban Heat
Island effect but rather, account for it in their
margin of error.
1973
NASA reports their global temperature
measurements within one one-hundredth of a degree.
1895
"large-scale hog producers are a greater threat
to the United States and U.S. democracy than
Osama bin Laden and his terrorist network."
Robert Kennedy Jr
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Jan 09- New Study Shows Antarctica has Actually
Been Getting Warmer
NASAs View 2009
A new study on Antarctic temperatures (no new
data) - which is contrary to the findings of
multiple previous studiesclaims that since
1957, the annual temperature for the entire
continent of Antarctica has warmed by about 1
degree Fahrenheit, but still is 50 degrees below
zero.
Despite the fact that the study was immediately
viewed with major skepticism by scientists who
believe in anthropogenic global warming, many in
the media seized on the study as a chance to
attacks those skeptical of man-made climate doom.
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History of the Anthropogenic Global Warming Theory
In the late 19th century, Svante Arrhenius coined
the term greenhouse effect to explain how
carbon dioxide traps heat in the Earth's
atmosphere.
In the 1950s, amateur scientist G.S. Callendar
warned that the greenhouse effect was true and
dramatically impacting the atmosphere of the
Earth. Scientific studies began to predict that
increased carbon dioxide emissions, due to
increased use of fossil fuels, would trigger an
outbreak of global warming.
In the 1980s James Hansen, a climatologist and
current head of the NASA Goddard Institute for
Space Studies, testified before congressional
committees and helped raise broad awareness of
the global warming issue.
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Antarctic Sea Ice up 4.7 since 1980
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