The Ten Year Horizon: Volatile, Intense, and Mostly Harmless (1)

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The Ten Year Horizon Volatile, Intense, and
Mostly Harmless (Opportunity, Irrationality,
Transformation, and Absurdity Book 4) This book
explores the next decades more frequent and
intense economic, geopolitical, fiscal, and
market volatility, technological innovation,
disruption, and hype.

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Long-term opportunity exists, and this book uses
a 10-year horizon as a surrogate for a long-term
perspective. Some of the worlds most important
industries are being disrupted, especially
finance via digital assets and Blockchain-based
businesses, life sciences via gene editing, DNA
sequencing, and CRISPR, and communications via
advanced wireless data networks, software
technologies including artificial intelligence,
and new interactive platforms such as the
Metaverse. Success requires not only
understanding how to assess these industries, the
potential disruptions, the sustainability of new
business models, and other economic forces, but
also understanding that human emotions swing
market cycles, impact values, and skew
competitive dynamics. This is not a hyperbolic
this time its different sermon, but we are
entering an era that will be characterized by
persistent uncertainty and rejection of the
halcyon days of growth equals value regardless
of profitability. Vulnerability to economic and
social shocks will also be higher and there may
be many dark days along the way to the
horizon. The world is becoming a zero-sum chess
game. The players, China and the US, hope to
either control or influence other pieces queens
to pawns ranging from Russia and Ukraine to
India and Turkey. This book explores the chills
of discontent that ignited these fractures and
looks at potential avenues for re-engagement and
mutual benefit. The foreseeable future is
disjointed and fractured, but, there may be an
ultimate realization that long-term benefit from
reigniting mutual engagement will be in
everyones best interest. Traditional industries
that drive the world economy metals, minerals,
plastics, and energy are essential to any
green revolution. Technology, innovation, and
disruption need minerals, metals, plastics, and
energy to build and deploy their products.
Technology, and potentially life-saving
innovation, are useless without these basic
industries - now impacted more than ever by
geopolitics and global trade. Technology and
innovation can solve potentially existential
threats from climate change to food scarcity to
global pandemics But, as I discuss, technology is
also an uncontrollable monster that can lead the
world into a downward spiral of distraction and
meaninglessness - and solve nothing. I explore
whether the future needs the Metaverse,
cryptocurrencies, or NFTs (it doesnt),
Blockchain technology and other digital assets
(it can), or artificial intelligence and machine
learning (it does). The Metaverse and
cryptocurrency are mostly a sideshow.
Blockchain and digital assets are platforms
enabling the digitization and potential
disruption of finance. While all these
technologies are often lumped together, I discuss
the significant distinction between them. I
also explore what can be predicted, what should
be ignored, and why basic science and
fundamental discovery are our most potent weapons
and greatest opportunity to create value and
benefit society. I emphasize the need to ignore
policy recommendations that attempt to manage
outcomes for a shortsighted, politically popular
goal. I close this book with some very personal
thoughts from my experiences.
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