Jolts Job Openings and Commodity Intraday Tips

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Jolts Job Openings and Commodity Intraday Tips
Crude Oil prices continued to fall for the larger
part of the day, the markets lacked any fresh
data from the major global equities as there was
no major economy or policy related cues. We do
not expect any major cues today either. In other
important updates for the commodity, the US EIA
in its weekly report might show crude stocks
probably increase by 1.85 million barrels for the
week ended 07 March. Crude related cues continue
to press US oil prices as the markets might also
look for any fresh developments in the
euro-zone. Though concerns of outright war
between Ukraine and Russia have receded,
the problems have not resolved completely.
Crimea, which is dominated by people of
Russian origin, has become a point of
contention lately. According to a Bloomberg
update, Russian troops detained Ukrainian border
guards in Crimea as the region prepares for a
March 16 referendum on joining Russia. In case
the aforementioned issues escalate, we could see
some support for crude oil prices both at the US
and Brent, which at the least might protect the
commodity from falling further. Currently
however, the situation continues to be normal.
The backwardation between the Crude April and
May contracts at the NYMEX stayed near the
50 cent mark, though we saw the Mar and
April contract continuo increase to Rs 13.
We have a buying recommendation for the
spread locally on a holding basis. We feel it
will further enhance to Rs 25 in the coming
sessions. Nevertheless, gains might be lost if
international crude prices start rising due to
any unexpected developments in Ukraine and a
surprisingly positive inventory report in the US.
Overall though, we continue to hold a bearish
stance on the commodity and recommend selling on
pullbacks for smaller targets. The rupees
appreciation is also expected to further aid the
selling bias in the local markets Global market
analysis US equities closed marginally
lower overnight. However Asian equities are
trading higher led by Japanese cues after the
Bank of Japan which in its monetary policy,
stuck to its stand of maintaining the easy
monetary policy ahead of the sales tax hikes
which comes into effect in the month of April.
From the currency space the dollar index is
trading marginally higher at 79.78, while the
euro is trading marginally lower against the
dollar at 1.3870. Coming to crude oil,
prices traded down and settled at 101.12
while this morning it is seen trading
steady. We believe oil prices may continue to
trade down amid speculation that crude stockpiles
rose in the US. Meanwhile, Brent oil prices also
traded down after the Chinese data showed exports
number declined sharply. We believe the
weakness may remain on todays trade
however, losses may be minimal. We recommend
selling crude oil from higher levels. From the
economic data front, we have a few important
numbers in the form of German trade balance, UK
industrial production and from the US whole price
index. Commodity Intraday Tips SELL CRUDE OIL
MCX MAR NEAR 6200 SL 6260 TGT 6140 SELL REF SOYA
OIL NCDEX APR BELOW 739.9 SL 743.5 TGT
735.5 Today Economic Data Indicators
DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
12.03.14 1230 JN Machine Tool Orders YoY Feb P --- 40.3
12.03.14 1230 GE Labor Costs SA QoQ 4Q -- -03
12.03.14 1230 GE Trade Balance Jan 15.0B 14.2B
12.03.14 1230 GE Exports SA MoM Jan 1.4 -0.9
12.03.14 1230 GE Imports SA MoM Jan 1.3 -0.6
12.03.14 1500 GE Current Account Balance Jan 16.0B 23.5B
12.03.14 1500 UK Industrial Production MoM Jan 0.2 0.4
12.03.14 1930 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Feb -- 94.1
12.03.14 1930 US JOLTs Job Openings Jan --- 3990.0
12.03.14 1930 US Wholesale Inventories MoM Jan 0.5 0.3