TRANSFERRING LEAN SIX SIGMA AND DFSS DATA SIMPLY AND EFFECTIVELY Baseball Analytics

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TRANSFERRING LEAN SIX SIGMA AND DFSS DATA SIMPLY
AND EFFECTIVELYBaseball Analytics
4th Annual Design for Six Sigma Conference James
M. Wasiloff Cary Young US Army TACOM LCMC 9
February 2009
Baseball is the only field of endeavor where a
man can succeed three times out of ten and be
considered a good performer.  Ted Williams
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Agenda

• Introduction of Baseball Analytics
• Descriptive statistics and graphical data
  analysis
• Hypothesis development and testing
• Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)
• Pearson Correlation Coefficient
• Simple Linear Regression
• Multiple Regression and Best Fit Model
• Predictive Models
• Statistical Process Control
• Next Steps / Application in Other Sports

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Introduction
Baseball quote

• Why the session
• Better way to understand and teach LSS and DFSS
  Tools
• Can Money Spent Wins
• Keep it Statistically Simple
• Just the Beginning

The charm of baseball is that, dull as it may be
on the field, it is endlessly fascinating as a
rehash.  Jim Murray
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Test of Hypothesis

• Null Hypothesis
• Ho m1 m2
• MLB example Ho Mean Batting Average of the NY
  Yankees from 2006-2008 equals the Mean Batting
  Average of the Tampa Bay Rays from 2006-2008
• Alternative Hypothesis
• Ha m1 m2 or m1 m2
• They are not the same

During my 18 years I came to bat almost 10,000
times.  I struck out about 1,700 times and walked
maybe 1,800 times.  You figure a ballplayer will
average about 500 at bats a season.  That means I
played seven years without ever hitting the
ball.  Mickey Mantle, 1970
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Batting Stats
American League
National League
It ain't like football.  You can't make up no
trick plays.  Yogi Berra
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Test of Hypothesis

• Are the batting averages of the National League
  different than the American League?
• T-test
• Interpretation P Low, null must go P High,
  null will fly

Two-Sample T-Test and CI AL, NL N
Mean StDev SE Mean AL 14 0.27086
0.00772 0.0021 NL 16 0.26356 0.00704
0.0018 Difference mu (AL) - mu (NL) Estimate
for difference 0.007295 95 CI for difference
(0.001717, 0.012872) T-Test of difference 0 (vs
not ) T-Value 2.69 P-Value 0.012
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Are Salaries Correlated to Team Performance?

• The trend is
• Problem statement
• Will increasing player salaries lead to more
  success?

Baseball was the major American sport in which
money bought success. George Will, Moneyball
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2008 MLB Salaries and Win Count
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Correlation Between Salary and Wins?
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Use these Derivation Formulae or?
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Use This Simple Graphic? Pearson Correlation
Coefficient Definition Values of r
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Correlation Coefficient

• Graphic approximation what do you think?
• Minitab results Pearson correlation of Total
  Salary 2008 and Wins in 2008 0.323
• Interpretation of results

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American League West in 2002(Moneyball Data
Set)
Pearson correlation of Wins and Payroll -0.928
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ANOVA
A baseball fan has the digestive apparatus of a
billy goat.  He can, and does, devour any set of
diamond statistics with insatiable appetite and
then nuzzles hungrily for more.  Arthur Daley

• Null Hypothesis
• Ho m1 m2 m3 mn
• MLB example Ho Mean Batting Average of the NY
  Yankees equals the Mean Batting Average of the
  Tampa Bay Rays equals the Mean Batting Average of
  the NY Mets equals the Mean Batting Average of
  the
• Alternative Hypothesis
• Ha At least on mk is different from one
  other mk
• MLB example At least one team has a Mean
  Batting Average different from all other teams

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Regression Analysis

• Is it possible to model and predict number of
  wins for a season based on statistical
  parameters?
• The initial simple linear regression model, 2002
  data

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Multiple Regression and Best Fit Model

• Regression studies the relationship between the
  mean value of a random variable and the
  corresponding values of one or more independent
  variables.
• A model for predicting one variable from
  another.
• A statistical analysis assessing the association
  between two variables.Regression analysis is a
  method of analysis that enables you to quantify
  the relationship between two or more variables
  (X) and (Y) by fitting a line or plane through
  all the points such that they are evenly
  distributed about the line or plane.
• Multiple regression is a method of determining
  the relationship between a continuous process
  output (Y) and several factors (Xs).

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American League West in 2002(Moneyball Data
Set)
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Exploratory Data Analysis
What does it mean?
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Testing the Predictive Model

• Tigers 2008 data
• Here is the predictive transfer function from
  Minitab
• Testing on 2008 Data
• Actual win count 74
• Predicted win count 74.26

Wins 32.1 1.48 Average Age - 34.5 Team ERA
154 Team Batting Average 0.582 Saves (P)
0.150 Runs (P) - 0.0202 Walks (P) - 0.0087 SO (P)
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Statistical Process Control and Statistical
Thinking

• Statistical process control is the application
  of statistical methods to identify and control
  the special cause of variation in a process
  iSixSigma.com
• Statistical Thinking The process of using wide
  ranging and interacting data to understand
  processes, problems, and solutions.
• The opposite of one factor at a time where the
  tendency is to change one factor and see what
  happens.
• Statistical thinking is the tendency to want to
  understand situational phenomena over a wide
  range of data where several control factors may
  be interacting at once to produce and outcome.
• Common cause variation becomes your friend and
  special cause variation your enemy.
• Attribute judgements of good and bad are replaced
  with estimates of significance with given
  confidence.

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Example 1 Notional Data Status at Game 37
Range outside UCL indicates out of control
-Need to investigate special cause
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Which Method is Earliest at Detecting a Special
Cause?
Analytics Approach
Old Way
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Next Steps

• Additional MLB Analytics
• System approach to baseball
• Other sports?
• Golf Fishbone Cause and Effect Analysis example

Baseball statistics are like a girl in a bikini. 
They show a lot, but not everything.  Toby
Harrah, 1983
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Our Mission Develop world class batters who
use consistent, disciplined, and proven methods,
of eliminating or preventing hitting problems
thereby providing our fans excellence in batting,
league leading run creation resulting in high
level fan satisfaction  

• Lean Six Sigma Analytics
• Design for Six Sigma
• Statistical Methods
• Correlation/Regression Analysis
• Design of Experiments
• VOC / QFD
• Taguchi Methods
• Innovation Methods

Systems Based Potential Causes
Stadium
Accessories
Optimal Batting System Design
Pre Emptive Batting Problem Discovery
Wasiloff Young Baseball Analytics Systems
Approach to Batting
Analytic Based Reactive Batting Problem Solving
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Baseball?  It's just a game - as simple as a ball
and a bat.  Yet, as complex as the American
spirit it symbolizes.  It's a sport, business -
and sometimes even religion.  Ernie Harwell,
"The Game for All America," 1955
Questions / comments? Thanks!