What is happening to the UK population in a global mobility system

1
What is happening to the UK population in a
global mobility system?

• Phil Rees
• School of Geography, University of Leeds
• Paper presented at the ESRC/ONS Public Policy
  Seminar Series on Demographic Change and
  Government Policy, Third Seminar on
• Globalisation, Population Mobility and the Impact
  of Migration on Population
• Friday 21 July 2006
• Royal Statistical Society, 12 Errol Street, London

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Questions about UK international migration

• Q1 What role does the UK play in the global
  mobility system?
• Q2 What is the influence of international
  migration on the future UK population?
• Q3 How does international migration influence
  the composition of the UK population?
• Q4 What improvements in our intelligence about
  international migration and migrant populations
  do we need?

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Q1 What role does the UK play in the global
mobility system?

• In the past 4 decades the world migrant
  population has increased by 138 (UN estimates)
  while the total population has increased by only
  100 (US Census Bureau)
• The migrant population in the UK has increased by
  142 (UN estimates) while the population has only
  increased by 12 (US Census Bureau)
• The UKs share of the Worlds immigrants
  increased from 2.3 in 1960 to 3.8 in 1970 but
  has since receded to 2.3 in 2000
• The UK ranked as 11 (of 208) countries in
  numbers of migrants in 1960 and 2000 though had
  been higher in between
• Despite a long history of emigration, the number
  of UK migrants in other countries is about 935
  thousand lower than the number of overseas born
  living in the UK and the UK is ranked 15 in terms
  of net balance of migration

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UK in a Global System
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Q2 What is the influence of international
migration on the future UK population?

• A comparison of the natural increase only and
  principal and high migration scenarios developed
  by GAD show the substantial impact that
  continuing net immigration has on the future
  population of the UK
• Without this immigration, the UK population would
  decline (as the White British population is doing
  currently)

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Variant Projections of the UK population,
2001-2074 (GAD/ONS)
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Q3 How does international migration influence
the composition of the UK population?

• Context for a set of ethnic populations
  projections
• Pace of ethnic population change 1981-2001
• The need to recognise four migration streams
• A projection model for ethnic groups
• Estimation of projection inputs
• Projection assumptions
• Projection results, 2010 and 2020
• Projection implications
• Comparisons, evaluations and adjustments

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Context for a set of ethnic population projections

• Part of a project on Child Poverty sponsored by
  the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (papers just
  published)
• We were tasked with forecasting an 8 dimensional
  array of social and demographic characteristics
  of the population of the UK for 2010 and 2020
• This has been used to re-weight a microsimulation
  model developed by the Institute for Fiscal
  Studies, London

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The pace of ethnic population change (England)
(Rees and Butt 2004)
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UK International Migration, 1991-2004

• The UK has changed from a country of net
  emigration to one of immigration in the 1990s.
  There were high flows of asylum seekers in the
  late 1990s and early 2000s.
• British citizens dominate emigration. Non-British
  citizens dominate immigration.
• Student immigration is very important. They seem
  to stay and settle. In 2003 there was a net flow
  of 124 thousands of people migrating for
  education reasons.
• v.uk/

Source ONS, online http//www.statistics.gov.uk/.
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2001 Census the key source for migration data by
ethnicity

• Groups harmonised on the England Wales
  classification
• WHITE
• MIXED
• ASIAN OR ASIAN BRITISH
• BLACK OR BLACK BRITISH
• CHINESE OR OTHER
• Commissioned tables used for totals
• All group migration used for age distribution

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Projection model options

• Haskey J. (2002) (ed.) Population Projections by
  Ethnic Group A Feasibility Study. ONS Studies in
  Medical and Population Topics, SMPS No.67. The
  Stationery Office, London. http//www.statistics.g
  ov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk9263
• Three options are put forward
• Microsimulation (Murphy)
• Multiregional (Rees)
• Single region with net migration (Simpson)
• Choice single region with four migration streams
  (as above) cohort-component with single years of
  age to 100 and annual interval. Equations are
  set out in a Chapter being revised currently
• No inter-group interaction or multiregional
  projections as proposed by Rees (2002)
• Not as sophisticated as the ONS ethnic estimation
  model (Large and Ghosh 2006a and 2006b) but the
  ONS model results were not available when they
  were needed!

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Models for handling four migration streams in
projections
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Estimation of projection inputs

• Single year populations estimated from five year
  data applying region single year of age (sya)
  proportions
• Single year survival probabilities derived from
  sya national life table (to 100) adjusted by
  regional SMRs (no ethnic dimension)
• Age specific fertility rates estimated by ratio
  of ethnic Child- Woman Ratio (CWR) to all group
  CWR and regional ASFRs
• Migration estimates use national sya intensities
  applied to ethnic group sya populations and
  adjusted to migration totals for ethnic groups
• Regional emigration flows from IPS distributed to
  ethnic groups using out-migration proportions to
  estimate total for adjustment

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Projection assumptions very simple

• Constant fertility rates from 2001
• Mortality rates declining at 2/year
• Migration model 1 used
• Constant intensities and flows
• Plenty of scope for improvement and different
  scenarios

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Results Projected Populations for Whites and
Ethnic Minorities, 2001-2020
The White population grows a little during the
2001-2020 period (mainly because of new
immigration). The Ethnic Minority population
grows very substantially because of demographic
momentum and high immigration.
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Results the Projected Asian population by age
group, 2001-2020
This graph for the Asian population shows the
growth in each broad age group. There is higher
relative growth in the labour force and older
ages than in child ages (as a result of the
ageing of earlier cohorts). Note that fertility
rates in the Asian groups are converging to lower
national levels.
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Results the projected White share of the
population by region in 2001 and 2020
Our projections show what changes are likely in
the ethnic composition of the regions of the
country. There are profound contrasts in ethnic
diversity between the South East regions and
the Celtic periphery.
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Results the Asian Share of Regional Populations
2001 and 2020
What is interesting about this map is that the
greatest relative change occurs in regions that
have lower concentrations. There is thus
de-concentration of the ethnic minority
population at regional scale (and also within
regions and cities see papers by Simpson). The
largest absolute gains occur in the regions of
greatest concentration London and the West
Midlands (Birmingham).
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How much is each group projected to change from
2001 to 2020?
The mixed group grows fastest. Other groups are
growing at a slower rate than they did in the
1981-91 and 1991-2001 periods.
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How will the ethnic composition of the UK change?
Ethnic composition varies hugely across the ages.
The youngest ages show what the ethnic
composition of the whole population will be 20/30
years on. The 2020 percentages for 0-15 year olds
will be those of the whole population by 2050.
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How does the ethnic population vary across the
regions of the UK? (Black example)
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What difference does constraining the ethnic
projection to GAD/ONS total projections make?
Answer not much
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What difference does adding migration make?
Answer migration is a vital contribution to
growth
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What do other projections say?
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Reflections on Q3 How does international
migration influence the composition of the UK
population?

• International migration maintains a low growth
  rate for the UK population
• The groups that grow are non-White British
  (Large and Ghosh 2006).
• The process of ethnic change proceeds a steady
  but reduced pace this is Europes Third
  Demographic Transition (Coleman Scherbov).
• These conclusions are provisional because there
  is no current agreement among the alternative
  projections and because the projections reported
  here could be considerably improved and have been
  by ONS (but not yet published).

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Q4 What improvements in our intelligence about
international migration and migrant populations
do we need?

• Peter Boden (Edge Analytics) and I completed a
  study for Greater London Authority on data
  sources and methods to improve new migrant
  estimates for the GLA and London Boroughs (see
  the GLA web site).
• We interviewed people at GLA itself, Home Office,
  Office for National Statistics, Department for
  Work Pensions.
• We compiled an inventory of data sets and their
  characteristics.

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Data sources
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Actions in the short, medium and long term to
improve international migration statistics

• Short term
• Build a new migrant databank using the census,
  survey and admin datasets
• Medium term
• Re-introduce Embarkation and Landing Cards for
  all passengers. They can deliver the statistics
  needed by HO, ONS and LAs. Response will be
  nearly 100. Questions about address within the
  country, intended length of stay and purpose of
  move can be asked. Modern OCR/database processing
  can cope with the volumes of cards.
• E-borders (electronic passports) will not meet
  the need for information, as the passport does
  not know the answers to the three critical
  questions posed above.
• Long-term
• Introduce more refined migration questions into
  the 2011 Census, that include longer migration
  histories and prior statuses (not wise to refuse
  to consider a better migration question).
• Develop a Population Registers based on National
  Identity cards and the integration of NHS, NI, HO
  records with strong safeguards for privacy.