Mesoscale Modeling Branch: Where We Are and Where Were Going

1
Mesoscale Modeling BranchWhere We Are andWhere
Were Going
N C E P

• Geoff DiMego
• geoff.dimego_at_noaa.gov
• 301-763-8000 ext7221
• 9 December 2008

Where the Nations climate and weather services
begin
2
Who We Are

• Contractor Scientists
• Ed Colon
• Brad Ferrier
• George Gayno
• Ho-Chun Huang
• Dusan Jovic
• Dongchul Kim
• Pius Lee
• Shun Liu
• Guang-Ping Lou
• Manuel Pondeca
• Jim Purser
• Perry Shafran
• Youhua Tang
• Marina Tsidulko
• Caterina Tassone
• Weiguo Wang
• Jeff Whiting
• Vince Wong

• Government Scientists
• Tom Black
• Jun Du
• Dennis Keyser
• Ying Lin
• Geoff Manikin
• Ken Mitchell LSM Lead
• Jeff McQueen
• Dave Parrish
• Matt Pyle
• Eric Rogers
• Wan-Shu Wu
• lt- Stacie Bender (GWCMB)
• lt- Hui-Ya Chuang (GWCMB)
• Visiting Scientists
• Mike Ek
• Zavisa Janjic
• Fedor Mesinger
• Yoshiaki Sato - JMA

personnel who are less than 100 working on MMB
projects
3
WHAT i.e. T O P I C S

• Production Suite
• Observations Processing
• Marine Connections
• Legacy Stuff
• HiResWindow Upgrades Plans
• NAM / NDAS / DGEX March December Updates
  Plans
• RTMA and DNG (aka smartinit) Plans
• SREF 2008 Package ? 2009 Plans
• Air Quality Ozone Smoke Guidance
• Other Projects

4
NOAAs NWS Model Production SuiteAll the stuff
in BROWN is my worry
Oceans HYCOM WaveWatch III
Climate CFS
Hurricane GFDL HWRF
Coupled
MOM3
2B Obs / Day
Mostly Satellite Radar
Dispersion ARLs HYSPLIT
North American Mesoscale WRF NMM
Global Forecast System
Global Data Assimilation
Severe Weather
Regional Data Assimilation
WRF NMM WRF ARW
Short-Range Ensemble Forecast
North American Ensemble Forecast System
Air Quality
WRF NMMARW ETA, RSM
GFS, Canadian Global Model
NAMCMAQ
Rapid Update for Aviation
NOAH Land Surface Model
5
Five Order of Magnitude Increase in Satellite
Data Over Fifteen Years (2000-2015)
Observational Data IngestMostly Satellite Radar
Daily Percentage of Data Ingested into
Models (Not Counting Radar)
Daily Satellite Radar Observation Receipt Counts
Level 2 Radar
2008 Data
1.7 B obs
1.7 B
100
210 M obs
Received Data
125 M obs
Selected Data
Assimilated Data
100 M obs
Count (Millions)
17.3M
7
6.6M
2
2000
1990
2015
2008
Received All observations received
operationally from providers Selected
Observations selected as suitable for
use Assimilated Observations actually used by
models
6
DOPPLERRADARDATAWill it be an 800 lb gorilla?

• Now Processing Level II Archive-Quality
  NEXRAD-88D Data from 130 Radar Sites
• Still Receiving Level II.5 super-obs (made onsite
  and 1st backup)
• Still Receiving Level III (aka NIDS 2nd backup)
• Still using VAD wind profiles

7
Radar Processing in 2008

• NSSL Level II Radar QC package (Shun Liu)
• Combined radial wind and reflectivity QC
• Not able to deal with new higher-res Build 10, so
  required NCO to make Build 8 lookalike files
• Now includes generation of national 3D
  reflectivity mosaics every hour (used by RUCs
  diabatic digital filter)
• FY2009 plans
• Include estimate of mixed layer depth (and
  transport wind) for NASA ROSES RTMA
• NSSL has moved all its efforts over to WDSS-II
  which might mean our efforts so far are
  effectively orphaned well see

8
Sample of the Level II National Reflectivity
Mosaic (Composite)
9
Observation Processing in 2008

• Dennis Keyser had 133 RFCs
• Prepared for observation subtype e.g. aircraft
  airframe or mesonet provider
• To be used in stratifying future bias correction
  work

10
Aircraft Observation Processing

• Adapted NRLs aircraft QC package (S. Bender)
• Process conventional and ACARS data
• Includes improved track-checking
• Ascent/descent reports generated as profiles
• Associated with nearest METAR for surface
  baseline
• Will expand fcst-vs-obs verification beyond just
  RAOBs
• Will expand validation of model boundary layer
• For use in RTMA of mixing height transport wind
  (NASA ROSES project to blend sat sources (COSMIC)
  with in situ estimates from RAOB, ACARS, NEXRAD)
• Looking for an implementation in Q3 or Q4 FY2009

11
Comparison of Diagnosed PBL Heights from 3 ACARS,
NAM Analysis and NAM 30 hr Forecast
Marina Tsidulko
12
Connections to Marine Analysis and Modeling Branch

• NAM fields used to drive Great Lakes Wave Model
  when not being driven by NDFD
• Downscaling technique from Netherlands being
  tested to improve adjustment of winds as you move
  from land to lake or ocean
• Next NAM will use RTG_SST_HR (1/12th degree)
• Overland lakes to be addressed sst, ice or snow
  covered (some invariably need to be filled in
  even in 4 km nests)
• Marine observation station dictionary to improve
  quality control, specification of height / type
  of instrumentation and to ensure brand new
  observations are kept out of operations until
  they can be validated
• Integrating marine verification into EMC-wide
  unified verification efforts

13
LEGACY Eta MOS NGM

• MDL has generated MOS coefficients from 1-year
  of NMM-based NAM
  TIN08-89 REPLACEMENT OF ETA-BASED MOS
  GUIDANCE WITH NAM-BASEDMOS GUIDANCE EFFECTIVE
  DECEMBER 9, 2008
• This will replace the interim Eta-32k-based Eta
  MOS
• NGM and its MOS will be terminated 3 March 2009
  TIN08-90 TERMINATION OF THE NGM AND NGM-BASED
  PRODUCTS EFFECTIVE MARCH 3, 2009
• NCEP will be able to turn off NGM, NGM-MOS,
  Eta-32K run and Eta MOS
• NCEP MDL will avoid having to port these to the
  new computer in FY2009

14
HiResWindow Fixed-Domain Nested RunsExpanded 4-5
km Configuration as of 11 Sep 2007

• FOUR routine runs made at the same time every day
• 00Z ECentral Hawaii
• 06Z WCentral Puerto Rico
• 12Z ECentral Hawaii
• 18Z Alaska Puerto Rico
• Everyone gets daily high resolution runs if
  only if hurricane runs are not needed

Approved OSIP Gate 3 for inclusion in OB8.3
then OB9 then dropped but REINSTATED!! Data
started flowing June 2008
15
Frequency of HiResWindow RunsNo runs at all 50
of time in July August
Ratio of total model cycles
16
HiResWindow Updates in CY2008

• Feb 12
• Fix WRF Post to get frozen precip included in
  computation of simulated reflectivity for ARW
  runs. (NWS Central Region)
• Apr 15
• 1) Fix a bug in the boundary smoothing along the
  eastern boundary of NMM domains
• 2) Change compilation options for NMM and task
  geometry for both NMM ARW to make codes run
  faster
• 3) Trigger prelim job from 48 h GFS forecast
  rather than 84 h GFS forecast
• 4) Change the NMM namelists to produce hourly
  model output (added to NAWIPS 4/18
• 5) Add updraft helicity to NMM output. (NCEP SPC)
• Aug 6
• 1) Change the generating process code (PDS octet
  6) from 84 to WRF core specific values of 112
  (WRF-NMM) and 116 (WRF-ARW) (for AWIPS NCF)
• 2) Add vertical motion at 200, 250, and 1000 hPa
  isobaric levels (for DTRA)
• 3) Fix WRF Post to properly generate
  precipitation type and total cloud field
  percentage for the WRF-ARW.
• Sep 15
• Generation of GRIB2 is changed so distinct GRIB
  records are made for wind components (AWIPS NCF).
• Nov 4
• WRF post input code is corrected to eliminate
  risk of seg fault failure.

17
Matt Pyle Developmental 4.5 km NMM Run is Made
Daily Backup for SPC http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov
/mmb/mmbpll/cent4km/v2/
18
Plans for HiResWindow

• Improve initial conditions (Liu Parrish)
• Begin tests with Matt Pyles daily run
• Apply GSI analysis (as 3rd outer-loop)
• Using radial winds only
• Sharpen background error covariances
• Apply Diabatic Digital Filter (ala RUC)
• Force latent heating from reflectivity mosaic
• Expand daily Pyle run - 4 km NMM twice per day
  for all of CONUS starting in Q2 FY2009 (for SPC
  AWC)
• Upgrade resolution to 2 km in 2011
• 1st Priority is to get NEMS nesting into NAM

19
31 Dec 2007 Table of Differences Between NAM/NDAS
GFS/GDAS Possibly Leading to Reduced NAM
Performance Relative to GFS

• Table 1. Analysis/Assimilation Differences
• Prediction Model (2) Domain Characteristics (6)
• Assimilation Cycle Characteristics (7)
• GSI Analysis Characteristics (4)
• Observational Differences (17)
• Table 2. Prediction Model Differences (13)
• Next two NAM upgrades
• Mar 08 GFS Gravity Wave Drag Mt Bocking
• Dec 08 Partial Cycling

20
Decision Brief Upgrade to NAM/DGEX
Mesoscale Modeling Branch Eric Rogers, Geoff
DiMego, Tom Black, Mike Ek, Brad Ferrier, George
Gayno, Zavisa Janjic, Dennis Keyser, Ying Lin,
Matthew Pyle, Wan-Shu Wu 14 March 2008
where the nations climate and weather services
begin
21
Mar 2008 NAM Bundle

• Changes to the WRF-NMM model physics
• GFS Gravity Wave Drag
• Fix bug in ozone treatment
• Improved computation of surface longwave
  radiation
• Unified land-surface physics
• Enlarge the computational domain of the NAM by
  18.
• Upgrade WRF-NMM code to IJK (faster) version and
  keep pace with changes to the public version
  distributed by DTC.
• New GSI code and recomputed NMM background error
  covariances
• Assimilation of new/better observation types
  (AIRS, MODIS wind, Mesonet obs, SFOV GOES).
• Use 12-36 h forecast precipitation from the 00Z
  operational NAM as driver for NDAS soil moisture
  in regions outside of the CONUS.
• New terrain after 3 passes of smooth-desmooth,
  fixed oversized GSL and waterfalls

18 Increase in NAM domain
22
GFS Gravity Wave Drag (GWD) Mountain Blocking
(MB)

• Mountain blocking (Lott Miller, 1997 ECMWF)
• Wind flow around subgrid orography
• Low-level flow is blocked below a dividing
  streamline (air flows around, not over barrier)
• Gravity wave drag (Alpert et al., 1988, 1996
  Kim Arakawa,1995)
• Mountain wave stress, pressure drag
• Vertical distribution of the wave stress,
  changes winds aloft (momentum deposition)
• Extensive testing showed NAM did not need subgrid
  orography factor for this component of GFS GWD

23
Example of GWD impact Features More
Progressive48-72 h QPF valid 12Z 23 Dec 2006
24
Verification CONUS RMS Height Error SolidOps
Dashed ParallelRetrospective Parallel Test
Periods
March 2007
August 2007
25
Verification CONUS RMS Height Error SolidOps
Dashed Parallel Real-time Parallel Dec 07
Feb 08
26
Verification CONUS RMS Vector Wind Error
SolidOps Dashed ParallelRetrospective
Parallel Periods
27
Verification CONUS RMS Vector Wind
ErrorSolidOps Dashed ParallelReal-Time
Parallel Dec 07 Feb 08
28
Time series of 36-h forecast 500 mb Height
errors NAM vs Pll NAM
29
Q1 FY2009 (16 Dec I hope)NAM / NDAS Change
Package

• Analysis / Assimilation Changes
• Partial cycling use GDAS forecast for
  atmospheric first guess at start (tm12) of NDAS
• Assimilation of TAMDAR, Canadian AMDAR and METOP2
  data
• Updated GSI analysis code w/improved CRTM
• Model Changes (also in DGEX)
• Vertically mix/diffuse each hydrometeor species
  separately
• Radiation double absorption coefficients for
  cloud water/ice
• LSM upgrades related to snow frozen conditions
• New hi-res (23km) AFWA snow depth analysis

30
NAM Parallel Testing

• 1 August 2008 present EMC Real-time
• 26 Feb 2007 31 Mar 2007 Retrospective
• 5 Aug 2008 28 Sept 2008 Retrospective
• 28 Oct 2008 present NCO Real-time providing
  gridded product for subjective evaluation

31
Equitable Threat (top) and Bias (bottom) QPF
Scores LeftMarch 2007 RightAug-Sept 2008.
RedOps NAM, BluePll NAM
Aug-Sept 2008
March 2007
32
24/48/72-h CONUS RMS Height Error LeftMarch
2007 RightAug-Sept 2008. SolidOps NAM,
DashedParallel NAM
Aug-Sept 2008
March 2007
33
Real-Time QPF Stats for Nov. CONUS
34
Real-Time Stats for Nov. CONUS
HEIGHT
WIND
Temperature
Rel. Humidity
35
Real-Time Stats for Nov. Alaska
HEIGHT
WIND
Temperature
Rel. Humidity
36
Q1 FY2009 NAM Upgrade Performance Summary

• Upper air stats are much better
• Precip is slightly better with somewhat lower
  biases (helps if NAM bias is high and hurts if it
  is low regime dependent)
• Surface stats generally neutral/slightly better
  except for Alaska warm season bu

37
NAM Plans for FY2010On New Computer

• Next machine (providing 2-3x) August 2009
• Add CONUS Alaska nests to NAM
• Nests run at NDFD spacing CONUS 4.5km Alaska
  5.5km
• Nests run at least to 48 hours
• Nested guidance similar to HiResWindow except
• Available every NAM run no hurricane preemption
  
• Available 4 times per day no intermittent
  availability
• Available 3 hours earlier
• Nested output additional to existing NAM 12 km
  guidance
• No more NAM changes in CY2009
• Porting to new computer NCO moratorium
• Move to new building
• Move to new ESMF-based NEMS
• (NCEP Environmental Modeling Framework)

38
Future Nests Imbedded in 12 km NAM
39
12 km Terrain
4 km Terrain
GFS 35km
Dots represent water points Domain is San
Francisco Bay
40
DiMegos Preferred Approach to Reinstatement of
FWIS

• Reinstate FWIS after NAM implementation on new
  computer in FY2010 when NEMS one-way nesting
  capability can be used.
• Reinstating FWIS any sooner would mean
• Squeezing it into already very busy 2009
• Having to do it within the WRF-Common Modeling
  Infrastructure and with its nesting
• WRF solution would be very short lived, being
  replaced within a year or so by a NEMS solution
• Efforts would certainly delay next NAM with NEMS
  into late 2010 and even into 2011.

41
RTMA DNG OSIP

• Analysis of Record (AoR) OSIP 05-009
• Real Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) OSIP 06-069
• Phase 1 of AoR
• RTMA for CONUS since August 2006
• New capability for OCONUS
• Requires downscaled 3-8 hr NAM fcsts for 1st
  guess for AK, HI and PR
• Requires downscaled 3-8 hr GFS fcsts for 1st
  guess for Guam
• Downscaled Numerical Guidance (DNG) OSIP 06-041
• Run AWIPS process SmartInit at NCEP
• Use full resolution model fields instead of the
  degraded versions available locally on AWIPS
• First do NAM to 84 hours CONUS, Alaska, Hawaii
  Puerto Rico
• GFS to follow
• Will provide first guess for RTMA Guam
• Will allow eventual termination of DGEX
• Possible improvements are many, but EMC lacks
  resources to pursue

42
RTMA DNG Accomplishments

• CONUS RTMA Q3 FY2007
• Alaska RTMA Q1 FY2008
• DNG for NAM Q1-Q3 FY2008
• Hawaii RTMA Q4 FY2008
• Puerto Rico RTMA Q4 FY2008
• Unified Upgraded RTMA Q1 FY2009

43
PUERTO RICO NDFD DOMAIN
2.5 km RESOLUTION GRID 177 x 129 GRID POINTS on
a Mercator Projection TERRAIN FOLLOWING
COVARIANCES FIRST GUESS ? SMARTINIT ON NAM FCST
Shaded Contours Topography in meters
44
HAWAII NDFD DOMAIN
2.5 km RESOLUTION GRID 321 x 225 GRID POINTS on a
Mercator Proj. TERRAIN FOLLOWING
COVARIANCES FIRST GUESS ? SMARTINIT ON NAM FCST
Shaded Contours Topography in meters
45
Unify Upgrade RTMA Q1 FY09 Today!

• Unify RTMA codes (CONUS AK same as HI PR)
• Add analyzed surface pressure analysis
  uncertainty (not mslp)
• Add RTMA terrain (comes from RUC not AWIPS)
• Faster code (2.5X faster via better use of
  multi-tasking)
• Improved estimate of analysis uncertainty using
  Lanczos method
• Analyze sensible T instead of Tv (decouples from
  moisture) and give background more weight (both
  help to eliminate overfitting)
• Recompute, recalibrate rescale (if necessary)
  Background Error Covariance using terrain with
  no smoothing
• Broaden correlation lengths over water
• Improved obs quality control
• Moisture checks inside 2D-Var (for dry-lines)
• MADIS reject list (for CONUS but comes from ER)
• Reject lists provided by NWS Regions
• Tuned dynamic reject list

46
Estimated Analysis Error (K)
HAWAII RTMA Estimated Temperature
Analysis Uncertainty Valid 12Z 2 September
2008
Note Analysis Error is Computed via the Lanczos
Algorithm for Solving Eigenvalue Problems in
Connection with the Conjugate-Gradient Method of
the GSI minimization. By-products of the GSI
minimization (gradient vectors and step sizes)
allow us to reconstruct a good representation of
the Hessian Matrix. The Analysis error covariance
matrix is the inverse of the Hessian.
Observations Used
GREEN DOTS MESONETS RED DOTS
NON-MESONETS Analysis error is smaller where
there are obs and is equal to the background
error in data void locations.
47
Unified RTMA Evaluations

• Josh Watson, Eastern Region wholeheartedly
  endorses the suggested changes to be incorporated
  into the RTMA.
• The following (4) individuals and (15) ER WFOs
  have evaluated the parallel RTMA over the last 8
  months and provided positive comments and
  feedback regarding the changes and modifications
  
• Joshua Watson, David Radell, David Novak,
  Richard Watling
• WFO CAE, WFO AKQ, WFO CTP
• WFO CAR, WFO BOX, WFO PBZ
• WFO RAH, WFO RNK, WFO ILM
• WFO GSP, WFO BTV, WFO GYX
• WFO ILN, WFO CHS, WFO PBZ
• Greg Mann, Detroit WFO DTX
• Florida Institute of Technology Prof. Stephen
  Lazarus

• Dave Myrick (WR SSD), The following WR folks
  have participated (some more than others) in the
  evaluation of the parallel RTMA over the past 8
  months
• WR HQ / SSD David Myrick
• WFO Seattle - Kirby Cook and Brad Colman
• WFO San Diego - Greg Martin
• WFO Reno - Shane Snyder
• WFO Spokane - Ron Miller
• WFO Hanford - Larry Greiss
• WFO Missoula - Gene Petrescu
• WFO Great Falls - Dave Bernhardt
• WFO Billings - Don Moore
• WFO Medford - Dennis Gettman
• WFO Pocatello - Dawn Harmon and Dean Hazen
• WFO Flagstaff - Mike Staudenmaier
• WFO Elko - Ryan Knustvig

TIN08-95 ADD NEW EXPERIMENTAL NCEP RTMA GRIDS TO
NOAAPORT AND NDGD EFFECTIVE JANUARY 28 2009
48
D E D I C A T I O N

• Were all dedicating this RTMA implementation to
  the memory of
• Lee Anderson

49
DNG Includes a New Method for Generating PoP
Old smartinit method totally based on model QPF
and RH such that high model QPFhigh PoP
PoP
With higher resolution we get mesoscale bands
which lead to narrow bands of high PoP
surrounded by large areas of low or 0 PoP
NAM precip
New method combines old method with SREF
pops
50
NAM DNG Distribution

• On 1 December, 2008 Brian Gockel wrote NCEP's
  NAM-Based Downscaled Numerical Guidance grids
  (for the CONUS area) are scheduled for addition
  to the SBN/NOAAPort ... into AWIPS.   The
  activation is scheduled for tomorrow (Tuesday Dec
  2), effective with the 12UTC distribution.
• This activation is for the CONUS NAM DNG only
• TIN08-87 ADDITION OF NCEP NAM-BASED CONUS-AREA
  DNG GRIDS TO NOAAPORT EFFECTIVE DECEMBER 2, 2008
  
• The activation for the OCONUS NAM DNG is
  scheduled for late January 2009.
• TIN08-92 ADDITION OF NCEP NAM-BASED OCONUS-AREA
  DNG GRIDSTO NOAAPORT EFFECTIVE JANUARY 28, 2009
  
• Note that the collective additional data volume
  is considerable (139MB for each six-hourly batch,
  or 556MB/Day).  For this reason, staff at the NCF
  are included and should be aware (Jon Beach and I
  spoke this evening, about this activation).
• AWIPS users have found that local storage space
  needed after conversion from GRIB2 to local
  NETCDF is considerably larger.

51
NAM DNGLocal Storage Issue Could Be Reduced
WithMore Grid Clipping to the Local Domain
52
RTMA DNG Future Plans

• Funding 10K (NWS/OST) 20K (NCEP/OD)
• Adapt the NAM smartinit to GFS
• Generate DNG from GFS out to 7-8 days
• Expand RTMA to Guam
• Declare RTMA Operational
• Generate Weather Type for DNG NAM GFS
• Upgrade to 2.5 km over CONUS
• Upgrade to 3 km over Alaska
• Upgrade to 1.25 km over Puerto Rico
• Upgrade to 1.25 km over Hawaii and Guam
• Apply DNG to RUC
• Expand RTMA variables (visibility, wind gust etc)
• Bias correct 1st guess prior to applying
  smartinit
• Retire DGEX

53
NCEP Provided 10 WRF runs daily run at 15 km
resolution
RDP????(?????)(0-36h), Initial08080712
CAMS
NMC
JMA
During the Opening Ceremony in Beijing 8/8/08,
little precipitation was predicted at National
Stadium by five RDP participants except Fr.
Aust.
Fr.Aus
Canada
NCEP
54
Accumulated Precipitation ( 04pm Aug.806am
Aug. 9)
National Stadium
55
Precipitation Forecast for National Stadium for
Opening Ceremony by Deterministic Models
WRF 17002400 ??
MM5 17002000 ?? 20002300
4mm 2300--9?02006mm
GRAPES 17002300 ?? 23009?200,??,lt1mm
T639 17009?0200 ????,
T?-0.2mm
56
Q1 FY2009 SREF Changes - 1

• Upgrade model versions for NMM (2.2), ARW (2.2)
  and RSM (2008)
• Increase horizontal resolution for non-Eta
  members (Eta members run at 32km)
• To 32km from 40km for NMM (2x)
• To 32km from 45km for RSM (2.8x)
• To 35km from 45km for ARW (2.1x)
• Keep membership at 21 members, but
• Add 4 WRF members from 6 to 10 (5 NMM 5 ARW)
• Remove 4 Eta members from 10 to 6 (3 BMJ 3 KF)
• Add more initial condition diversity using ET
  method instead of breeding
• WRF members use 10 different GEFS initial
  conditions
• GEFS uses ET method instead of breeding

57
Q1 FY2009 SREF Changes - 2

• More physics diversity
• Replace Zhou with Ferrier in 3 SAS members for
  RSM
• Replace Ferrier with WSM3 in all members for ARW
• SREF Output
• Fix serious bug in ARWs BUFR skin-temperature
  calculation.
• Breakout single bufr file into individual station
  time-series used by forecasters
• Upgrade the WRFBUFR code to use MPI I/O
• Add aviation fields for AWC
• Add wind-variance fields for DTRA
• Add hourly output of each member a late
  requirement from SPC and AWC to support aviation
  in Northeast corridor during 2009 convective
  season

58
Performance During EMC Testing

• Large scale features are similar between old and
  new versions
• New versions show
• More detailed spatial structures (especially in
  the mountainous West)
• More intense in precipitation amount (expected
  due to resolution increases
• Detailed structures are considered an improvement
  over the current system but traditional scores
  such as rmse and threat scores may suffer
  slightly
• Reduced 2m Temperature bias

59
Cold Season Retro Runs

• While NCO ran Real-Time Parallel in warm season,
  EMC ran cold season retrospective cases
• HPC requested 3 cases
• Dec. 14-16, 2007
• Jan. 1-6, 2008
• Feb. 9-14, 2008
• SPC requested one case
• Feb. 2-5, 2008 (Super Tuesday Tornado)

60
SPC Requested Rerun of 3 Feb 2008 63-hr
Forecasts Valid 00 UTC 6 Feb 2008
SREF Verf
SREF Forecasts of Probability of Sig. Tornado
Parameter gt3 SREFp indicates higher probability
over lower MS Valley (also note mean STP 3
contour in SREFp but not in SREF)
SREFp
61
HPC ZR forecast verifying at 00 UTC on 17 Dec
2007 SREFP shows better areal coverage and amount
F48hr
F24hr
OPS SREF
F24hr
F48hr
PARA SREF
62
Precip Scores 4 Cold-Season Retro Runs (Ying Lin)
ETS
ETS
bias
bias
(1) Feb. 9-14, 2008, HPC
(2) Feb. 2-6, 2008, SPC (Super Tue Tornado)
ETS
ETS
bias
bias
(3) Jan. 1-6, 2008, HPC
(4) Dec. 14-16, 2007, HPC
63
Precip Verification from NCOs parallel SREF
both ETS and Bias scores improved (from Ying)
64
SREF 09z Calibrated Lightning Verification of
Lightning Fcsts Valid 00 UTC 5 Nov 2008
SREF 3 Day Sample
SREFp 3 Day Sample
SREFp Thunderstorm Calibration Statistics
SREF - 6 Month Sample

• SREFp Brier score slightly improved
• (13 vs 9 improvement over climo)
• SREFp ROC area slightly improved
• (0.83 vs 0.78)
• Expect results to continue to improve as
• calibration adjusts to SREFp

65
Summary of SREF Evaluations

• Strong low-level temperature cold bias is gone
  for NMM members
• Both individual members and ensemble mean perform
  better
• Ensemble spread quality improves
• Probabilistic forecast improves
• More detailed features are seen such as precip
  and T fields due to model resolution increase
• More frequent forecast outputs (hourly) and new
  aviation ensemble products available to
  forecasters
• More balanced in membership among four models
  used (about 5 each)
• SPC, HPC, AWC and Rich Grumm gave Thumbs Up

66
Chronology Current Status

• July Code handed over to NCO
• August Major changes to produce hourly output
• August/September EMC ran cold season retro runs
  for HPC and SPC and NCO EMC worked to construct
  the NCO parallel system
• Sept 20 NCO parallel starts to run regularly
• Oct. 14 Nov. 14 Official forecaster evaluation
  period
• Nov. 17 Fix to turn on precipitation rate field
  for ARW members (discovered and requested by
  SPC/David Bright)
• Nov. 19 Failure due to script error (shared
  working directories)
• Nov. 21 ARW member fails due to bad input data
• Nov. 22-23 Three 21z runs fail with fix for
  shared directory problem
• Nov. 25 New SREF implementation is postponed
• EMC will establish a SREF parallel on new Cirrus
  machine
• Produce hourly output for SPC calibrations
• Re-submit clean SREF package for implementation
  later in 2009

67
FY2010 SREF Upgrade

• Expand bias correction to full domain (grids 221
  for all of No. Am., 216 for AK and 243 for
  Pacific Region)
• Downscale all members to at least 12km with NAM
  hi-res control
• Downscale all members to 5 km for those variables
  provided by RTMA
• Add ensemble product based on BUFR
• Bias correct precipitation
• Replace breeding with ET method
• Add 10-50-90 precentile output

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FY2008 Experimental NAM-driven HYSPLIT Alaskan
Smoke ProductNow Run by NCO in NWPROD
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Operational FY08 Forecast Domain 48 h forecasts
of Sfc Ozone at 06 and 12Z
259 grid cells

• CONUS 5x Domain
• (clean, static BC)
• Operational NAM-CMAQ
• Exp NAM-CMAQ w/ PM

442 grid cells
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2008 Real-time Runs WRF-CMAQ 48 h forecasts
Results with CB05 were slightly worse so no SMAQ
upgrade this year.
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8hr Max Ozone July 10, 2008

• Experimental Run
• Better over SJV, SAC valleys
• Stronger Overprediction over LA basin by as much
  as 40 ppb comp. to obs

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Air Quality FY09 Milestones

• Add experimental Ozone runs for Alaska and Hawaii
  domains
• Declare Alaska HYSPLIT smoke run operational
• Add experimental Hawaii HYSPLIT smoke run and
  CONUS dust product
• Upgrade HYSPLIT physics and test a CONUS dust
  capability
• Continue exp dev Particulate Matter runs with
  CMAQ

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Proposed O-CONUS Domains in FY09
Alaska 2.5X
Hawaii 0.5X
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Other Projects

• DTRA / dispersion (McQueen)
• Verification implementation unification
• http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwp
  rod/
• Aviation products for ICAO Transition of FAA
  AWRP algorithms from AWC to NCEPs CCS.

• DTRA / dispersion (McQueen)
• Verification implementation unification
• http//www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/gplou/emchurr/nwp
  rod/
• Aviation products for ICAO Transition of FAA
  AWRP algorithms from AWC to NCEPs CCS.

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• Cyclone tracking verification system