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The value system of people is changing. Development process and momentum ... No 'Yukos-like' oligarchy. Stable and investor friendly legislation in Kazakhstan ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Kein Folientitel


1
NESTOR Osteuropa Fonds Access to the Eastern
European Opportunities (as of 31 Jan, 2006)
2
Performance
  • Performance NESTOR Osteuropa Fonds

69.5 220.5 282.1 170.8 18.5
1 year3 years5 yearssince launchsince
launch p.a.
11.2 7.3 43.1 32.1 69.5
20012002200320042005
Rankings
  • CHART Performance NESTOR Osteuropa Fonds,
    benchmark competitors

A
Source SP Micropal
Data as of 31 Dec 2005
3
Portfolio (31.12.2005)
  • Country allocation
  • Russia 61,20
  • Poland 11,00
  • Caspian Region 6,53
  • Hungary 4,47
  • Czech Republic 2,38
  • Others 4,67
  • Cash 9,75
  • Sector allocation
  • Oil Gas 39,10
  • Metals 12,82
  • Telecoms 9,92
  • Banks 11,82
  • Utilities 5,84
  • Media 3,71
  • Others 16,79

4
Why Eastern Europe? Ideas
  • New Russia
  • The value system of people is changing
  • Development process and momentum of change is
    being underestimated by the west
  • There are a lot undiscovered opportunities
  • Europe is going East
  • Growth potential is higher than in Western
    Europe
  • Process is well known and understood

5
Fund Outlook
  • Priorities
  • Russia
  • Commodities
  • Local Gazprom Shares via a special vehicle
  • Utilities
  • Mobile telephone companies
  • Poland
  • Western Companies with main businesses in
    Eastern Europe
  • Oil companies in Caspian region
  • New potential EU Members Turkey, Bulgaria,
    Romania, Ukraine

6
Growth and Perspectives
  • Russia finds itself in a growth trend
  • Big Central European countries grow less
    dynamically, with problems in state finance

7
Russia More promising than ever
  • Basic background information
  • Improving political stability
  • Democratisation process should sustain, even
    though the way is not easy
  • Structural reforms (not dependent on Yukos
    affair)
  • Basic economic information
  • Russia has investment grade from all three major
    agencies
  • Positive trend in capital flows after all
  • Corporate governance is improving
  • Yukos failure is the one-off

8
Poland Taking off
  • Basic background information
  • EU membership is a stabilising factor
  • Political changes are not harming economic
    situation
  • Structural reforms are being continued
  • Basic economic information
  • Polish companies have been restructured during
    the economic slowdown
  • Monetary policy is not an obstacle anymore for
    economic development
  • Competitive advantage through cheaper but
    nevertheless well educates labour force

9
Caspian Region Oil Bonanza
  • Basic background information
  • No Yukos-like oligarchy
  • Stable and investor friendly legislation in
    Kazakhstan
  • The political system is authoritarian and might
    stay so
  • Western Countries and especially USA have big
    political and economic interests in the region
  • Basic economic information
  • Region holds 5 of world oil and gas reserves
  • Low costs and high profit margins
  • Transportation problems will be solved in the
    near future
  • The majority of western fund managers are not
    familiar with the region

10
Approach
  • Portfolio Approach
  • Benchmark MSCI EM Eastern Europe (EUR)
  • Combination of Top Down and Bottom Up
    approachies
  • No hesitation to go into cash in case of
    negative market development

11
Approach
  • Top Down Approach countries
  • Political situation sources of disturbance /
    social peace / ethnic peace
  • Economic development, business climate
  • GDP Growth and industrial production
  • Current account
  • Fiscal discipline
  • Indebtedness
  • Interest rates
  • Inflation / money supply / currency reserves /
    capital flows
  • Development of real income / trends of labor
    market

12
Approach
  • Bottom up Stock Selection
  • Market capitalization ? 200 Mio. EUR
  • Shareholder-Value-Orientation
  • Leading position in its sector
  • Financials better than in average in the sector
  • Western-minded and well trained management
  • Strategical use of information technology
  • Accounting under western standards
  • Audited by well known western companies

13
Valuation
  • P/E

28.02.2005
14
Market Capitalization (28 Feb, 2005)
  • Peculiarities
  • Russia 58 in oil shares
  • Poland 50 in banking and telecom shares
  • Czech Republic 85 in 6 stocks
  • Hungary 90 in 4 stocks

15
Risk and Return
16
Fund outlook
  • Features of the fund worth mentioning
  • Active management, focused portfolio
  • Fund manager from the region
  • Deep understanding of specific regional risk
    profile of those markets
  • Investment in stocks out of benchmark universe
    many of those not monitored by most of our
    competitors
  • Currency hedging (EUR/USD)

Stand 31.12.2005
17
The Fund manager
Mr. Gegham Ananyan
  • WARBURG INVEST KAG since 01.04.2005
  • Oct 2004 Feb 2005 Bankworld Inc. USA
    USAID Securities Market Strengthening
    Activity in Armenia Securities Market Expert
    2002
  • Jan Sep 2004 IBM Business Consulting
    Services USAID Capital Market Development
    Project in Armenia Consultant
  • June 1998 Dec 2003 Central Bank of
    Armenia Financial Market Operations
    Department Head of Department Treasurer
  • Jan May 1998 HSBC London, UK Treasury
    Secondment
  • July 1995 Oct 1997 Central Bank of
    Armenia State Reserves Management
    Division Head of Division

18
The Fundmanager
  • Key skills and achievements
  • Key fields reserves managements, capital
    markets, macroeconomics
  • Analytical, languages, managerial, teamwork,
    communication skills and contacts
  • Became Head of State Reserves Management
    Division of the Central Bank of Armenia in
  • 1 year after graduation
  • A pioneer of state foreign exchange reserves
    management in Armenia
  • (Author of the number of articles on reserve
    management)
  • Became Head of Financial Market Operations
    Department-Treasurer of the Central Bank in 4
    years after graduation
  • Member of the Committee for Developing of
    Armenian Precious Metals Industry and Gold Market
    under the Prime Minister of Armenia
  • Made headed Committee for conducting primary
    auctions of Government Securities
  • As a key negotiator of the Central Bank and the
    Government of Armenia, was responsible for the
    relations with the international private
    financial institutions
  • Seconded for work in the Capital and Emerging
    Markets desks of the global international bank in
    London
  • Trainings, including on-the-job in the
    leading world financial institutions
  • Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citibank, HSBC, Commerzbank,
    Credit Suisse First Boston, Chase Manhattan,
    Bundesbank, Bank England, De Nederlandsche
    Bank, World Bank, IMF

19
Die Fondsdaten
Investment focus Investment company Fund
managerx ISIN Code Fund currency Initial
issue End of commercial year Dividend
policy Calculation of the Net Asset
Value Registered for sale in
Eastern- and South Eastern European
equities NESTOR Investment Management S.A.,
Luxembourg Gegham ANANYAN,Warburg Invest KAG
mbH, Frankfurt/Main LU0108457267 Euro 21
February, 2000 June, 30 thesaurierend täglich Germ
any, Luxembourg, Austria
20
Die Fondsdaten
  • Depository bank
  • Partner for institutional investors
  • Settlement
  • KassenvereinClearstreamFundsettle
  • Cut-off time
  • Partner for any sales matters

M.M.Warburg CO Luxembourg S.A. Daniela
Schiffels, Sylvia Bono Tel 352 45 45-279Fax
352 42 45 45-405E-Mail depotbankstelle_at_mmwarbur
g.lu Delivery against paymentM.M.Warburg CO
Luxembourg S.A.30493086414878 on every
valuation day in Luxembourg at the latestby 16
p.m. application shall be dealt with at
thefollowing valuation day NESTOR-Fonds-Vertriebs
-GmbHTel 0800/063 78 67E-Mail
info_at_nestor-fonds.de
21
(No Transcript)
22
Rechtlicher Hinweis
Diese Präsentation wurde von der NESTOR
Investment Management S.A., Luxemburg publiziert
und stellt kein Angebot zum Kauf von Anteilen und
keine Aufforderung zur Abgabe eines Angebotes zum
Kauf von Anteilen der NESTOR Osteuropa Fonds dar.
Die bisherige Wertentwicklung ist keine Garantie
für zukünftige Ergebnisse. Der Anteilerwerb
erfolgt ausschließlich auf der Grundlage des
gültigen Verkaufsprospektes in Verbindung mit dem
letzten Jahresbericht des Fonds und, wenn dessen
Stichtag länger als 8 Monate zurückliegt,
zusätzlich mit dem letzten Halbjahresbericht.
Alle Verkaufsunterlagen sind kostenlos am Sitz
der Verwaltungsgesellschaft sowie bei allen Zahl-
und Informationsstellen erhältlich (NESTOR
Investment Management S.A. oder M.M.Warburg Bank
Luxembourg S.A., beide 2, Place Dargent, L-1413
Luxembourg oder NESTOR-Fonds-Vertriebs-GmbH,
Ottostraße 5, D-80333 München). Wertpapieranlagen
besitzen nicht nur die Möglichkeit zur
Wertsteigerung des eingesetzten Kapitals, sondern
sind auch mit erheblichen Verlustrisiken
behaftet. Dies trifft insbesondere auf Anlagen in
Aktien und in davon abgeleitete Wertpapiere wie
Optionsscheine zu, die Eigenkapital von
Aktiengesellschaften und damit Risikokapital im
ureigensten Sinne darstellen. Die in dieser
Ausarbeitung enthaltenen Informationen beruhen
auf Aussagen des Investmentmanagers Warburg
Invest KAG mbH, Frankfurt, die aus verlässlichen
Quellen stammen und ggf. die persönliche Meinung
des Managers wiedergeben. Sie erheben nicht den
Anspruch auf Vollständigkeit und sind daher
unverbindlich. Soweit in dieser Ausarbeitung
Aussagen über Preise, Zinssätze oder sonstige
Indikationen getroffen werden, beziehen sich
diese ausschließlich auf den Zeitpunkt der
Erstellung der Ausarbeitung und enthalten keine
Aussage über die zukünftige Entwicklung,
insbesondere nicht hinsichtlich zukünftiger
Gewinne oder Verluste. Diese Ausarbeitung stellt
ferner keinen Rat oder Empfehlung dar. Vor
Abschluß eines in dieser Ausarbeitung
dargestellten Geschäfts ist auf jeden Fall eine
kunden- und produktgerechte Beratung durch Ihren
Berater erforderlich.
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