southern fire issues

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CANSAC in Context other fire air quality
activities
Doug Fox fox_at_cira.colostate.edu Al
Riebau ariebau_at_fs.fed.us
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CANSAC in Context

• FCAMMS Fire Air Quality research activities
• West-wide demonstration of BlueskyRAINS
• Findings Recommendations
• Fires regional impact on air quality
• Emissions, Monitoring Modeling
• Some suggested potential directions for CANSAC

So. Cal. 10/03 MODIS/Aqua- NRL
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What are FCAMMS?

• National Fire Plan Forest Service RD
• informally coordinated research activities
• Focused on providing real-time, high-resolution
  met simulations for fire smoke application
  tools
• Requiring
• Research capacity building
• Modern computational capabilities
• Improved cooperation with Universities other
  Agencies.

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Fire physics
MODIS WRF-Chem
BlueSky RAINS
Local Smoke
User driven products
Weather DS tools
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FCAMMS fire research

• PSW
• Long term forecasting
• CANSAC.
• Eastern
• FireTech
• Haines index.
• Southern
• Fire Weather index
• Storm effects.

• Rocky Mountain
• MODIS fire footprints
• Weather planner
• FARSITE data files.
• PNW
• Lightening potential.

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FCAMMS air quality research

• Rocky Mountain
• WRF-Chem fire
• Bluesky Westwide.
• PNW
• BlueskyRAINS.
• PSW
• CMAQ fires.

• Eastern
• Bluesky
• CMAQ.
• Southern
• Bluesky GIS
• PB series
• CMAQ.

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Satellite Observation tools
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EPA AirNow
Navy Aerosol Analysis and Prediction
Air Quality Forecasting
NOAA ARL
NWS Eastern O3
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BlueSkyRAINS WEST 2005 Fire Season demo

• Fire data
• Wildfire locations fuels from ICS-209 forms
• Emissions from CONSUME/EPM.
• Meteorology modeling
• 36 12 km MM5 west wide, LAPS initialization
• 12 4 km MM5 northwest. NCEP Eta GFS
  initialization
• Smoke Dispersion modeling
• CalPuff
• Display
• RAINS Web based GIS functionality.

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BlueSkyRAINS WEST 2005 Fire Season demo

• Evaluations
• Ground level smoke concentrations
• Field studies (Gila NF Salmon-Challis NF)
• Usability of BSR outputs
• Telephone (14) Web site survey.
• Findings Recommendations
• Continue regional FCAMMS applications
• Continue research
• Terrain/Met emissions plume rise evaluations
• Improve understanding of potential users needs.

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Fire influences point observations
Data supplied by VIEWS web services
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Fires contribution to regional air quality

• RPO fire emissions
• Using monitoring data to apportion fire sources
• UC Riverside WRAP RMC CMAQ modeling
• 2002 with without fire.

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Regional Planning Organizations
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Inter-RPO Wildfire EI
Acres Burned Tons PM2.5
4.5 Mil Total 1.1
Mil Total
Note WRAP Inter-RPO acres blackened is less
than WRAP Phase II perimeter acres (5.27
million acres).
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WRAP emissions of PM 2.5 types of fires
WFU approximately 81,000
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Apportioning Fire Methodologies

• OC/EC Edge analysis
• IMPROVE Data suggest an Urban ratio 2-4 and a
  Fire ( SOA) dominated ratio 9 or higher.
• Setting urban 2.3 fire 9 calculating of
  fire OC
• Likely to be upper bound because fire OC includes
  SOA.
• Trajectory mass balance regression (TrMB)
• Obtain fire occurrence data (location, size,
  time)
• Parameterize fires contribution to site OC by
  summing distance weighted trajectory fire grids
  intersections
• Regress OC against the fire surrogate variable
• Calculate Fire OC contribution
• Likely to be lower bound because of limited fire
  occurrence data transport approximations.

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OC/EC Edge analysis OC/EC ratios
2000
2001
2002

• Maps of annual OC/EC ratios for 2000 2002.
• Maps are scaled the same in all years, black is
  where OC/EC is less than 2.3, red where it is
  greater than 9.

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TrMB calculations
IMPROVE sites
Fire grids
ATAD Trajectories

• Gridded fire occurrence data serve as surrogates
  for fire emissions
• IMPROVE data provide known receptor aerosol mass
  concentrations
• ATAD back trajectories select fires that impact
  IMPROVE sites
• Blue hatched regions indicate the area swept by
  four daily back trajectories arriving at Gila
  Cliffs National Monument on IMPROVE sampling days
  in August, 2000.

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Apportioning Fires contribution results (mg/m3)

• Fire Apportioned OC Results
• OC/EC edge analysis (all biogenics)
• West 0.6 East 0.9
• TrMB Regression (wildfires)
• West 0.3 East 0.4
• Current OC from IMPROVE
• West 1.0 East 1.7
• RHR regulationsnatural background
• West 0.3 East 1.0

OCM 1.4OC, avg. organic 70C
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Modeled annual average natural fire
contributions to extinction for 2002 (WRAP
attribution report, March, 2005)
http//wrapair.org/forums/aoh/ars1/report.html
Modeled annual average anthropogenic fire
contributions to extinction for 2002 (WRAP
attribution report, March, 2005)
http//wrapair.org/forums/aoh/ars1/report.html
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Pilot Program to DemonstrateMM5/CMAQ Forecasting
System

• Gail Tonnesen, Zion Wang
• College of Engineering
• Center for Environmental Research and Technology
• UC Riverside
• Riverside, CA 92507

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Fire Forecasting

• Goal demonstrate the feasibility of
• operating an Eulerian air quality model in
  forecast mode
• for predicting the effects of prescribed burning
  on air quality
• Models used
• Meteorology model MM5 v3.6.2
• Emissions model SMOKE
• Air Quality Model CMAQ v.4.4

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Fire Forecasting Approach

• Five sequential steps in the MM5/CMAQ air quality
  forecasting system
• meteorological modeling (forecast) with MM5
• meteorological preprocessing, MM5gtCMAQ
• emissions processing (meteorological data are
  needed to calculate plume rise)
• producing IC/BC/JPROC
• air quality modeling
• post-processing presentation of simulation
  results

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Emissions Inventory

• Categories of emissions used
• area sources
• point sources
• mobile sources (on-road non-road)
• fire (agricultural, wild fire, prescribed
  burning)
• road dust
• offshore
• biogenics
• Mexico Emissions Inventory

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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOzone
Base Case
Impact from Rx Fire
Base Case Fire
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOzone
Base Case
Impact from Rx Fire
Base Case Fire
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOzone
Base Case
Impact from Rx Fire
Base Case Fire
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOzone
Base Case
Impact from Rx Fire
Base Case Fire
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOzone
Base Case
Impact from Rx Fire
Base Case Fire
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MM5/CMAQ Ozone Difference
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOrganic Carbon Aerosol
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOrganic Carbon Aerosol
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOrganic Carbon Aerosol
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOrganic Carbon Aerosol
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MM5/CMAQ Forecast ResultsOrganic Carbon Aerosol
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MM5/CMAQ Organic Carbon Diff
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Potential directions for CANSAC

• Bluesky developments
• Ozone impacts model

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Integrate CANSAC products with PFIRS AQMIS
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predict Ozone PM2.5 impacts from fire
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Thank You

• Questions
• Doug Fox
• fox_at_cira.colostate.edu