Transition Initiatives From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience'

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Transition InitiativesFrom Oil Dependency to
Local Resilience.

• May 7th 2008. Rob Hopkins
• Transition Town Totnes TransitionCulture.org
  Transition Network

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The Petroleum Interval
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Peak Oil.
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From Energy Watch Group (2007) Crude Oil the
supply outlook.
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Oil Producers (98)
www.lastoilshock.com
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Post Peak Oil Producers (64)
www.lastoilshock.com
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Production peaks follow discovery. (You have to
find it before you can produce it).
Source Association for the Study of Peak Oil
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President Bush in Saudi
Terry Moran "What can you say to the king here
to get those high oil prices down?" George Bush
Well, I will say to him that if it is possible,
your majesty, consider what high prices is doing
to one of your largest customers . . ."
Moran then asks whether Americans might expect a
tougher approach, one in which we essentially
say, "you owe us" for all we have done for you.
Bush "If they don't have a lot of additional
oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask
somebody to do something they may not be able to
do."
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World Unconventional Production 1936 - 2006
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Filling the Gap the Unconventional Oils.
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New Brazilian Superfield

• Will require
• equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per
  square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup
  truck
• pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above
  500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius)
• drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more
  than one mile thick and cost 50,000 each
• This is a very, very technically challenging
  environment where no one's ever done this, these
  discoveries are in very deep water, and once you
  get to the seabed they are very deep under the
  floor, with a layer of salt that is definitely a
  difficult barrier

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The Growth in Biofuels
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Gas? UK Continental Shelf Annual Forecast
Import Requirement
Source National Grid
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• The UK is a secondary priority. Like it or not,
  that is a fact.
• Thor Otto Lohne, executive vice-president,
  Gassco.

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...Climate Changing Faster Than Expected...
Spratt, D. (2007) The Big Melt Lessons from the
Arctic Summer of 2007. Carbon Equity.
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The Climate Challenge
From Spratt, D. Sutton, P. (2007) Target
Practice where should we aim to prevent
dangerous climate change. Carbon Equity.
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Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)
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Carbon Emissions