The Educational Needs Index Project National Overview for SHEEONCES Network

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The Educational Needs Index ProjectNational
Overview for SHEEO-NCES Network
Houston D. Davis, Ph.D., Tennessee Board of
Regents Brian E. Noland, Ph.D., Tennessee Higher
Education Commission Patrick Kelly, National
Center for Higher Education Management Systems
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This research is sponsored by

• Additional thanks to
• Tennessee Board of Regents
• Tennessee Higher Education Commission
• National Center for Higher Education Management
  Systems
• Austin Peay State University

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Educational Needs Index Project Development -
Background

• Foundation developed in late 1990s as a means to
  evaluate educational challenges in Tennessee
• Tennessee Tomorrow and the Tennessee P-16 Council
• Journal of Social Indicators Research (February
  2003)
• Southern Governors Association (October 2003)
• SREB Adult Learning initiative (2004)
• Lumina grant submission and receipt (2004-05)
• Base project and regional policy audits (2005-06)

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Educational Needs Index Foundational Constructs

• Education and the economy are increasingly
  intertwined as human capital becomes a
  centerpiece of the knowledge economy.
• State budgets are increasingly challenged by
  fluctuating state revenues.
• The demographic characteristics of the states are
  not uniform from region to region. The current
  use of only state-level indicators in the
  planning process limits the ability of planners
  to differentiate between the various regions of
  the nation.
• Educational planning indicators need to be linked
  with economic and demographic variables to
  provide a legitimate representation of our
  citizens.

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Human Capital Theory

• Individuals and society derive economic benefits
  from human capital investments in people.
• Based on the notion that education increases the
  human capital stock of individuals, improves
  their productivity, leads to increases in
  economic productivity, and contributes to the
  general betterment of society. (Denison 1983
  Walberg and Zhang 1998).
• The advancement of educational attainment has
  become an indispensable variable in policy
  efforts to make improvements of society as a
  whole.

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The Knowledge Economy and Higher Education

• In the Knowledge Economy, education, technology,
  and learning are the keys to sustainable economic
  growth.
• Higher education provides the foundation for the
  Knowledge Economy.
• Elected officials must remain diligent in their
  efforts to make significant investments in their
  educational infrastructures.
• In order to remain competitive, states must work
  to develop policies that incorporate human,
  intellectual, and financial capital.

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Educational Needs Index Foundational Constructs

• Education and the economy are increasingly
  intertwined as human capital becomes a
  centerpiece of the knowledge economy.
• State budgets are increasingly challenged by
  fluctuating state revenues.
• The demographic characteristics of the states are
  not uniform from region to region. The current
  use of only state-level indicators in the
  planning process limits the ability of planners
  to differentiate between the various regions of
  the nation.
• Educational planning indicators need to be linked
  with economic and demographic variables to
  provide a legitimate representation of our
  citizens.

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Educational Needs Index Foundational Constructs

• Education and the economy are increasingly
  intertwined as human capital becomes a
  centerpiece of the knowledge economy.
• State budgets are increasingly challenged by
  fluctuating state revenues.
• The demographic characteristics of the states are
  not uniform from region to region. The current
  use of only state-level indicators in the
  planning process limits the ability of planners
  to differentiate between the various regions of
  the nation.
• Educational planning indicators need to be linked
  with economic and demographic variables to
  provide a legitimate representation of our
  citizens.

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Education Factors - Percent of 18-64 Year Olds
with a High School Diploma, 2000
Data Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
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Economic Factors Percent of the Population Age
64 and Under Living in Poverty, 1999
Data Source U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Census
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Market Factors Projected Percent Change in the
Population Age 64 and Under, 2000-2020
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Educational Needs Index Foundational Constructs

• Education and the economy are increasingly
  intertwined as human capital becomes a
  centerpiece of the knowledge economy.
• State budgets are increasingly challenged by
  fluctuating state revenues.
• The demographic characteristics of the states are
  not uniform from region to region. The current
  use of only state-level indicators in the
  planning process limits the ability of planners
  to differentiate between the various regions of
  the nation.
• Educational planning indicators need to be linked
  with economic and demographic variables to
  provide a legitimate representation of our
  citizens.

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Improving the Policy Toolbox

• The geographic and demographic diversity of the
  nation provides challenges to those planning for
  the delivery of private or public goods and
  services.
• As recently noted by the Southern Growth Policies
  Board, states need to build and maintain a more
  complete demographic profile of their workforce
  
• This profile should take into account the
  educational, economic, and population growth
  factors of all counties in the region, thereby
  providing a clear picture of workforce
  opportunities and challenges.
• The purpose of this research is to develop an
  econometric model that answers this call, thereby
  providing direct evidence of the link between
  education and social welfare.

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Educational Needs Index Model Development and
Construction

• Model examines the connections between
  educational, economic, and population
  characteristics at the county level
• Combines 15 county level variables that directly
  impact
• Participation rates in post-secondary education
• Educational attainment levels
• Employment patterns
• Socio-economic status
• Provides for state, regional, and national
  comparisons

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Educational Needs Index Factor Categories

• Educational Factor Indicators assess the
  educational capacity of a countys adult
  population.
• Economic Factor - Indicators in this category
  assess the degree of economic challenges and
  opportunities facing counties.
• Market Demand Factor - Indicators assess the
  present population growth issues facing the
  county and potential need for increased emphasis
  on human capital development to address changing
  demographics of a county.
• Population Factor Indicators serve as
  corrective variables to control for the
  population size of each respective county.

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Educational Needs Index Factors
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Educational Needs Index Key Questions

• What is the current level of educational
  attainment of the state and its respective
  counties?
• What is the current health of each states
  counties from an economic perspective?
• Are there counties in the state that are quickly
  growing and have shifting demographics that skew
  toward youth, young adults, or at-risk minority
  populations?
• What counties in the state can be identified by
  the ENI to be under-educated, facing economic
  challenges, and facing robust population growth
  and shifting demographics in categories of youth,
  young adults, or at-risk minority populations?

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Educational Needs Index ModelThe Education
Factor and Its Four Indicators
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ENI Education Factor by Quartile
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ENI Education FactorComparison of States by
Quartiles
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Educational Needs Index ModelThe Economic
Factor and Its Five Indicators
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ENI Economic Factor by Quartile
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ENI Economic FactorComparison of States by
Quartiles
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Educational Needs Index ModelThe Market Demand
Factor and Its Five Indicators(plus the
Population Adjustment)
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ENI Market Demand Factor by Quartile
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ENI Market Demand FactorComparison of States
by Quartiles
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ENI Overall Analysis by Quartile
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ENI Overall AnalysisComparison of States by
Quartiles
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Educational Needs Index Project
Final report to be published by Lumina and
include national highlights, region profiles,
analysis of best practices, and policy
recommendations.
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Educational Needs Index (ENI) and Examples of
Supporting Data Employed in Regional Policy Audits
Southeastern Kentucky and Northeastern Tennessee
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Southeastern Kentucky and Northeastern Tennessee
Counties and 5 PUMS Areas High ENI Region
Kentucky Counties Bell Harlan Knox Whitley
Tennessee Counties Campbell Claiborne Hancock Morg
an Scott
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Educational Needs Index Average Index Scores
for Each Measure, Southeastern KY and
Northeastern TN
Low Need
High Need
Percent 18-64 Year Olds with a High School
Diploma () 2000
Percent 25-64 Year Olds with an Associates Degree
() 2000
Education Factors
Percent 25-64 Year Olds with a Bachelor's Degree
or Higher ()
Difference in College Attainment Between Young
and Older
Unemployment Rate () 2003
Percent of Population Under 65 In Poverty () 2000
Median Family Income 2000 ()
Economic Factors
Per Capita Personal Income - 2000 ()
Percent Manufacturing Employment () 2000
Projected Percent Change in 64 and Under
Population 2000 to 2020
Percent of Population Ages 0 to 19 () - 2000
Market Factors
Percent of Population Ages 20 to 44 () - 2000
Rate of Population Growth 64 and Under (1990 to
2000)
Percent Minority () 2000
Population Adjustment
Percent of State Population Ages 0 to 44 ()
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
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Educational Attainment of the Young Adult
Population Ages 18 to 24 in 2000
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
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Educational Attainment of the Adult Population
Ages 25 to 64 in 2000
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
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Percent of the Population In Poverty, 2000
U.S.
SE Kentucky and NE Tennessee
36.0
Under 5 years
18.2
37.7
5 years
17.6
35.5
6 to 11 years
16.9
31.4
12 to 17 years
14.8
24.8
18 to 64 years
11.1
19.4
65 to 74 years
8.5
22.4
75 years and over
11.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
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Percent Employment by Occupation in 2000
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census
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Percent Employment by Industry in 2000
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Average Annual Earnings (18 to 64 Year Olds) by
Level of Educational Attainment 2000
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use
Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
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Difference in Average Annual Earnings Between
College Graduates and High School Graduates 2000
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use
Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
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Average Annual Earnings (18 to 64 Year Olds) by
Occupation, 2000
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use
Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
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Net Migration of 18 to 64 Year Olds by
Educational Attainment (1995 to 2000)
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use
Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
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Net Migration of 18 to 64 Year Olds by Occupation
(1995 to 2000)
Source US Census Bureau, 2000 Public Use
Microdata Samples (based on the 2000 Census)
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Educational Needs Index Urban and Rural Policy
Audits
Rural Targets
Urban Targets
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Educational Needs IndexRegional Research Strategy

• Shared with NCHEMS, SHEEO, WICHE, SREB, and MHEC
• Visit state SHEEO agencies
• Rural and urban site visits
• provide in-depth analysis of expanded data set
• environmental scan
• examination and discussion of best practices and
  public policy intervention
• site visits include meetings and focus groups
  with key policy-makers and other regional
  officials

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Educational Needs IndexImproving the Policy
Toolbox

• Regional education organizations using the ENI in
  their outreach and policy/planning discussions
• Project has aided several organizations in the
  development of grant proposals and building a
  case for need and importance of selected areas
• Institutional researchers have found the ENI to
  be helpful in strengthening the depth and scope
  of their environmental scanning activities
• Educational systems seeking the establishment of
  P-16 regional networks have employed the ENI in
  raising awareness of the growing importance of
  partnerships.
• Various education, economic development, and
  advocacy groups have found the comparison data at
  local, regional, and state levels to be
  particularly useful in public presentations
  seeking to inform the public debate surrounding
  the relationship between education and the economy

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For additional information on the Educational
Needs Index contact
Dr. Houston Davis, Tennessee Board of
Regents houston.davis_at_tbr.edu or 615/366-3975
Dr. Brian Noland, Tennessee Higher Education
Commission brian.noland_at_state.tn.us or
615/532-3862
Mr. Patrick Kelly, NCHEMS patrick_at_nchems.org or
303/497-0307
For detailed information about ENI visit
http//www.educationalneedsindex.com