Global Cities: From Babylon to Exurbia

1
Global Cities From Babylon to Exurbia

• Presentation by Joel Kotkin, Senior Fellow, New
  America Foundation
• Global Cities Speaker Program
• Munk Centre for International Studies
• University of Toronto March 14, 2005

2
Rise and Fall of Cities

• Human prosperity does not abide long in one
  place

Herodotus Greek Historian 5th Century BC
3
Key Factors for Decline

• Inability to absorb newcomers
• Lack of upward mobility
• Inattention to basic infrastructure and day to
  day livability
• Lack of security
• Loss of Moral Compass

4
Looking Backward in Urban History

• Early Cities were places sacred, safe and busy
• As cities grew, the need to plan and develop
  green space evolved
• Cities did best that were cosmopolitan and open
  to entrepreneurs
• The industrial revolution leads to the
  multi-polar, suburbanized city
• LA as original in the Xerox machine

5
The First Great Metropolis
Babylon the
Gate of the Gods

• Among worlds largest cities for 1500 years
• Endured numerous regime changes due in part to
  its sacred religious, and cultural role
• By the time of Herodotus, 5th Century BCE city
  had estimated population of 250,000 and extended
  for 14 miles by 6 miles
• First complex development of urban gardens here
  and in other major Mesopotamian cities

6
The Early Asian City Homes to Kings,
Bureaucrats, Soldiers

• Capital cities served as religious, political
  centers, with outer walls for defense and
  interior walls around the palace
• Running of state was primary task
• It is the sovereign alone who establishes the
  capital --- the Confucian classic, Zhou Li
• Capitals shifted with each regime change

7
The Islamic City

• Religion conceived by urban merchant, Mohammed
• Islam thinks of urban ideal as celestial garden
  
• The city central to Islam as places men pray
  together

8
An Urban Ideal Delhi in 16th and 17th Centuries
A Garden of Eden that is inhabited
9
Asias Urban Decline

• Loss of interest in trade and exploration after
  1500
• Greater wealth among elites made them turn away
  from seeking contact with outside world for trade
  or knowledge
• Autocracy suppressed entrepreneurs in India, the
  Ottoman Empire, China and elsewhere
• Seeds of resurgence--- Queens of the Further
  East like Bombay, Calcutta, Hong Kong and
  Singapore

10

• Attacks on peoples property remove the
  incentive to acquire and gain property

Ibn Khaldun14th Century Arab historian
11
European Re-Urbanization

• Less than 5 percent of Europeans lived in towns
  and cities by 7th Century
• From meager beginnings in 12th Century, European
  cities begin to grow
• Compact, commercially driven cities, with wide
  latitude for trade
• Search for spices, silk and other luxuries drives
  trade east

12
The Cosmopolitan City
The miracle of toleration was to be found,
wherever the community of trade convened.
French historian Fernand Braudel on Venice,
Antwerp, Amsterdam and London in the early
Modern Period
13
The Crisis of the Industrial City

• Cities grow with enormous rapidityin 1850
  Britain first country with an urban majority
• Industrialization makes pollution and other
  health hazards critical
• Middle Class and aristocrats look for a way out
• Working Class dissatisfaction rises

14
Industrial cities boosted crowding dramatically
Urban Land Use 1400-1850 Square meters/Person
15
Victorian Industrial City
16
Urban Disaster

• The cottages are very small, old and dirty,
  while the streets are uneven, party unpaved, not
  properly drained and full of ruts. Heaps of
  refuse, offal and sickening filth are everywhere
  interspersed with pools of stagnant liquid. The
  atmosphere is polluted by the stench and is
  darkened by the smoke of a dozen factory
  chimneys.

Frederick Engelson Manchester in 1844
17
Bringing Order to the Industrial City Paris

• Let us open new streets, let us clean up the
  populous streets that lack air and daylight. Let
  the beneficial light of the sun everywhere
  penetrate our walls.

Napoleon III,1850
18
Haussmanns Paris
19
The British Alternative The Garden City

• Town and country must be married and out of
  this joyous union will spring a new hope, a new
  life, a new civilization.

Ebenezer Howard
20
Progressive Reform

• Reformers in Britain, US, Canada and other
  industrial countries develop new sanitation
  systems sewer socialism
• Development of parks in cities in Europe, North
  America and Australia
• Commuter trains spur development of suburbs to
  bring people to the countryside

21
The Evolution of Global Cities

• London and Paris --- 1750
• New York and Chicago --- 1900
• Tokyo, Los Angeles, Hong Kong --- 1970s
• Sydney, Singapore, Seoul, Sao Paolo --- 1980s
• Shanghai, Beijing, Mumbai , Toronto, Houston ---
  1990s
• Many more to come from Phoenix, Bangalore to
• Kuala Lumpur
• Declustering The Revenge of the Smaller Cities?

22
The Global City in Modern Times

• Spread of Urbanism
• Shift from Europe to Asia
• Technology and de-clustering in western
  metropolitan areas
• Rise of smaller hubs (Bangalore,Tel Aviv,
  Singapore)
• A new phenomenon Cities that grow and become
  less important
• Prospects for Toronto, Canada and the
  Aspirational City

23
An Urbanizing World
People in Urban Areas
24
Growth in Urban Population
25
The European Era
Largest cities1900 London New York Paris
Berlin Chicago Vienna Tokyo St.
Petersburg Philadelphia Manchester Birmingham
Moscow
Source Villes et Campagnes, Paris, 1988
26
Urbanity Shifts towards Asia

• Largest Cities 1950
• New York
• London
• Rhineland (Germany)
• Tokyo
• Shanghai
• Paris
• Buenas Aires
• Chicago
• Moscow
• Calcutta
• Los Angeles
• Osaka

Source Villes et Campagnes, Paris, 1988
27
European Cities Gone from the Top

• Largest Cities 1994
• Tokyo
• New York
• Sao Paulo
• Mexico City
• Shanghai
• Mumbai
• Los Angeles
• Beijing
• Calcutta
• Seoul
• Jakarta

Source World Bank
28
In the United States, Canada and Australia the
Single Family Home Predominated as The
Universal Aspiration

• The suburban house is the idealization of
  every immigrants dream--- the vassals dream of
  his own castle. Europeans who come here are
  delighted by our suburbs. Not to live in an
  apartment! It is a universal aspiration to own
  your own home.

Los Angeles urbanist Edgardo Contini
29
Paradigm Shift Median Population Growth By Decade
Source US Census - Rappaport
30
Declustering in US 1995-2000 Migration Trends
31
Domestic Migrationby Population of Area 2000-2004
Millions
32
Despite Some Back-to-the-City Movement, More
People Are Still Leaving for the Suburbs
Source Center for Housing Studies at Harvard
University.
33
Minorities to suburbs
Percentage of Population Residing In Suburbs by
Race/Ethnicity 1990-2000
34
Another Kind of DiversitySuburb and Central
City Household Change by Household Type,
1990-2000
Metro Areas with Population Over 500,000
35
Declustering A Global Perspective
Percentage Change in Population 1965 - 2000
Source Demographia
36
Vancouver Growth Pattern
Source Demographia
37
Montreal Urban/Suburban Balance
Source Demographia
38
Toronto The Los Angeles of the North

• A vast, sprawling relatively dense region with 20
  percent of Canadas Urban Population (only
  greater LA is more dense in North America)
• Metro area growing rapidly
• Population in suburbs is almost as dense as in
  the city
• Immigration key factor in growth

Demographer Wendell Cox
39
Toronto Growth Pattern
Source Demographia
40
Wide-flung Density
People per square km
Source Demographia
41
Canadian CitiesPopulation Growth (1991-2001)
Source Demographia
42
Economic Declustering US Job Growth Remains
Centered in Low- and Moderate-density Areas
Average Employment Growth ()1990-1998
County Population Density
Low
High
Source Joint Center Tabulations of the Regional
Economic Information System (REIS) database
43
Changing Economic Order Job Growth by Metro Area
2001-2005

• Source Michael Shires for Inc. Magazine

44
Increasing Insecurity in NYC
Source Securities Industry Association
45
Declustering Business Service Growth by Metro
Region 2002-2005
46
Job Growth (Jan 2005-Jan 2006)
Source stat can
47
Canadian Declustering
Job Growth Around CBD 1996 - 2001
Source stat.can
48
Again the LA Pattern
Downtown Jobs as Percent of Region
Source Demographia
49
Global Perspective Technology Shifts the
Locational Paradigm

• New Technology could telescope the distance
  between communities
• Corporate functions can be more efficiently
  dispersed to suburbs
• Technology turns former backwaters into potential
  global hubs
• Bigness less important than efficiency (Rise of
  Tel Aviv and Singapore)

50
Telecommunications Changes Everything

• Monthly Cost of leasing a line from Bangalore to
  Los Angeles

sourceOncept,Inc.
51
Vast Differences on a Global LevelInternet Users
per 10,000

• Source Nationmaster, Inc.

52
Cities with an Obscured Future

• She knew neither the sea or the mountains,
  mustard bloom, the meeting of sun and horizon,
  ripeness of medlar trees, nor any simple
  loveliness.

Carlos Fuentes, describing a resident of Mexico
Citys slums, in Where the Air is Clear
53
A Regional Tragedy

• The whole Middle East stands in danger of
  being left behind again in the information age
  just as had occurred in the industrial era.

--- Syrian scholar Sami Khiyami, 2003
54
In Asia, The Vertical City One Possible Urban
Future

• glass skyscrapers would rise like
  crystals, clean and transparent in the midst of
  the foliage of trees.
• -Le Corbusier

55
Is the Future of the Vertical Cityin East Asia?
The Tallest Buildings, 2006

Sears Tower, Chicago (1974)
Jin Mao Building, Shanghai (1999)
Petronas Tower1 Kuala Lumpur (1998) Petronas
Tower2 Kuala Lumpur (1998)
Taipei 101 (2004)
Shun Hing Square, Shenzen (1996)
Central Plaza, Hong Kong, 1996
Civic Plaza, Guangzhou (1996)
Empire State Building, New York (1931)
56
The Problem with Verticality and Ultra-High
Prices Plunging Birthrates/Aging Populations
Birth Rates per 1000
Source indexmundi.com
57
The Ephemeral City The Future of the Core in the
West?
a bazaar, a great gallery of shops and places of
concourse and rendezvous.
H.G. Wells ---description of urban centers in
the future,
58
The Ephemeral City

• Cities with low percentages of Children
• Lifestyle Orientation
• Declining Economic Role

Examples San Francisco Berlin Vienna Portland Ams
terdam
59
Thoughts on Ephemeral Cities
Poor but sexy."

• Mayor Klaus Wowereit on Berlin

A cross between Carmel and Calcutta
Kevin Starr on San Francisco
60
Demographics U.S. Cohort Changes
Percent Less than 18 Years, Select Major U.S.
Cities
61
Population Trends Selected Cities Trend towards
Sprawling, Multipolar Cities 2000-2004
62
Toronto and the Future of Cities in the Countries
of Aspiration

• Younger Demographics
• Evolving successful multi-ethnic societies
• Greater Land Mass/Ability to spread
• Great Resource Base
• Anglo-Saxon Political System

63
Countries of Aspiration The Immigrant Factor
(percent foreign population)
Source UN, Nationmaster.com
64
World-Nations New Citizens, 2000
per thousand

214,600
70000
1 in world
898,000
Source Nationmaster.com, UN
65
Making Babies, Fertility Rates
Source CIA
66
Healthier Long Term Demographicsa Younger
Future Population Growth Rates, 2004

67
Getting Older Slower
Population Over 65
Source CIA
68
Room to Grow Total Arable Land
69
Arable Land Per Capita
Hectares
70
Economic Dynamism Countries of
OpportunityInflation-adjusted GDP growth 2002-
2005

• Source CIA

71
Best Course for Metropolitan Areas Getting Back
to Basics

• Build on advantages of urban life such as
  culture, shorter commutes, religious institutions
• Stress basic improvements in schools,
  neighborhoods, infrastructure, business climate,
  preserve some economic function
• Address middle class flight and keep families
  around as long as possible
• Building an Archipelago of Villages

72
The New Suburbanism Learning to Live with Sprawl

• Housing near jobs
• Emphasis on families
• Strong role for village shopping streets and
  markets
• Provision of open space around the village core
  and housing estates
• Solving the problem of sprawl within the Sprawl

73
The Big Trend Digital Impact
Percent change by mode, journey to work 1980-2000
Source US Decennial Census
74
The Future Beckons Towards an Archipelago of
Villages

• The dispersed, multi-polar city is here to stay
• The biggest opportunity for community building
  and economic growth will lie in suburban in-fill
  and the periphery
• Time to stop complaining about historical trends,
  and learn to adapt to them
• Digital technology offers huge, long-term
  opportunities for dispersed, livable cities
• The goal remains making places sacred, safe and
  busy whether in city, suburb or exurb