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Regional STEO

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Regional STEO Update. EIA/Office of Energy Markets and End Use ... Introduced regional projections for heating oil, propane, and gasoline prices ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Regional STEO


1
Regional STEO Update EIA/Office of Energy
Markets and End Use Meeting of the American
Statistical Association (ASA)Committee on Energy
Statistics with theEnergy Information
Administration (EIA)October 20 and 21,
2005Washington, D.C.
2
Topics
  • Recap April 2005
  • Schedule
  • Overview and Key Components
  • Challenges

3
Purpose and Objectives
  • Maintain a national perspective for EIAs
    short-term outlook AND provide regional detail to
    better understand U.S. energy markets.
  • Add relevance Provide EIA customers with
    outlook relevant to their state or region.
  • Add depth Gain better understanding of
    local/regional supply problems (pipeline/transmiss
    ion constraints, regulations, etc.), which
    national model ignores or distorts.

4
Schedule
  • Launched regional model in August, 2005.
  • Introduced regional projections for heating oil,
    propane, and gasoline prices and natural gas and
    electricity demand and prices
  • Continuing development of regional detail on
    electricity generation still in development
  • Introduced new format.
  • Ongoing
  • Expert review

5
Model Components
  • Electricity
  • Demand
  • Prices
  • Load Generation
  • Dispatch Model
  • Natural Gas
  • Prices and Storage
  • Supply
  • Demand
  • Petroleum
  • Heating Oil
  • Gasoline
  • Propane
  • Macro Bridge

6
Regional Detail Varies
  • Significant regional detail for natural gas and
    electricity
  • Strong regional differences AND available
    regional data.
  • Census Division detail on electricity and natural
    gas demand.
  • Market area price determination for spot natural
    gas.
  • Census-Division (and some State) level
    electricity supply determination.
  • More limited regional detail
  • PADD-level pricing for key petroleum products
  • Census Division detail on household
    heating/cooling costs

7
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8
Observations
  • Resource intensive to build and to maintain
  • Potentially very powerful tool for analyzing
    regional disparities conducting contingency
    analysis
  • Can be fulcrum for data collection and sharing
    within EIA
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