Title: CHAPTER The Determination of Output in the Short Run
1 CHAPTER The Determination of Output in
the Short Run
8
2The Determination of Output in the Short Run
- Overview of the Short-Run Model, IS/LM
- The Multiplier Model
- Equilibrium
- The Multiplier Effect
- Fiscal Policy
3The Determination of Output in the Short Run
- The Goods Market and the IS Curve
- Shifts in the IS Curve
- Shape of the IS Curve
- The Money Market and the LM Curve
- Shifts in the LM Curve
- Shape of the LM Curve
- Monetary Policy and the LM Curve
4Development of the Short-Run Model
- The long-run model assumes that the economy will
return to its long-run growth path relatively
quickly. - In the 1930s that did not occur
- Real output fell 30 from 1929 to 1933
- Unemployment rose to 25
- J.M. Keynes developed a short-run model that
focused on aggregate demand, rather than
aggregate supply.
5Aggregate Supply when Prices are Fixed
2. High aggregate demand means high output.
1. Low aggregate demand means low output.
Price Level
Short-run aggregate supply
P0
AD1
AD0
Y0
Y1
Real Output
6Short-Run Aggregate Supply and Aggregate Demand
- The short-run aggregate supply curve is perfectly
horizontal. - Prices are fixed in the short run
- Changes in aggregate demand cause changes in
output, not prices - The aggregate demand (AD) curve differs from the
demand curve for a single good. - AD relates the price level of all goods to the
quantity of all goods in an economy. - AD shows combinations of price levels and income
levels where goods and money markets are in
equilibrium.
7The Models Behind Aggregate Demand
8The Multiplier Model
- The multiplier model is a model of the goods
market. - Aggregate expenditures (AE) are total
expenditures are total expenditures on goods and
services. - Consumption expenditures by households (C)
- Investment expenditures by firms (I)
- Government expenditures (G)
- Net exports (X-M)
9Categories of Expenditures
- Induced expenditures are expenditures that vary
with the level of income of the economy. - Autonomous expenditures are expenditures that are
independent of the level of income of the economy.
10The Consumption Function
C C0 mpc(Y-T)
C0 is autonomous consumption, independent of the
level of income
The marginal propensity to consume (mpc), the
change in consumption for each additional dollar
of disposable income, is induced consumption.
11Aggregate Expenditures
AE C0 mpc(Y-T0) I0 G0 (X0-M0)
Autonomous investment
Autonomous investment
Consumption Function C0 - autonomous mpc(Y-T0)
- induced
Autonomous investment
12Aggregate Expenditures
Aggregate Expenditures Curve
Aggregate Expenditures
The slope of the AE curve equals the mpc
The y-axis inter- cept is the sum of
autonomous expenditures
C0I0G0X0-M0
Aggregate Output
13Aggregate Expenditures and Equilibrium
Aggregate Expenditures Curve
The 45o line shows all points where AE equals
output
Aggregate Expenditures
A
AE0
Equilibrium is where AE equals aggregate productio
n
45o
0
Aggregate Output
Y0
14Equilibrium in the Goods Market
- Assume that
- Autonomous consumption (C0) is 100
- The mpc is 0.9
- Taxes are 50
- Investment (I0) is 200
- Government spending (G0) is 50
- Net exports (X0-M0) are zero
- Aggregate Expenditures (AE) are
- AE 100 .9(Y-50) 200 50
- AE 305 .9Y
- Equilibrium is where Y (output) AE
- Y 305 .9Y so Y 3050 at
equilibrium
15Equilibrium in the Goods Market
AE Curve
2. Expenditures are 3905 and...
?
C
Aggregate Expenditures
3. Firms cut production, moving the economy
toward point A.
A
?
B
?
1. When production is 4000
45o
0
Aggregate Output
3050
2000
4000
16Just in Time Inventory Management
17The Multiplier Effect
- The multiplier is the change in output that
results from a one-dollar change in autonomous
aggregate expenditures. - multiplier 1/(1-mpc)
- For mpc 0.9, then the multiplier 1/(1-mpc)
multiplier 1/(1-.9) 10 - If expenditures decrease by 100, equilibrium
income decreases by 10 x 100 1000
18The Multiplier Process
Change in Cumulative Change in
Cumulative expenditures change
output income change Step 1
-100 -100 -100 -100 Step 2
- 90 -190 -
90 - 190 Step 3 -
81 -271 - 81 - 271
. . Final Step 0 -1000
0 -1000
19Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Expenditures
AE0
A
AE1
?
Aggregate Expenditures
?
B
1. A 100 decline in autonomous expenditures
45o
0
Aggregate Output
3050
2050
2. causes a 1000 decline in aggregate output
20The Multiplier and the MPC
Multiplier mpc 2.0 .5 2.5
.6 3.3
.67 4.0 .75 5.0
.8 10.0 .9 100.0
.99
As the mpc approaches 1, the multiplier gets
larger.
21A More Realistic Multiplier
- Tax payments and purchases of imports reduce the
multiplier. - To include the portion of income paid in taxes
(t) and spent on imports (m), we replace the mpc
with the marginal propensity to expend (mpe). - mpe mpc(1-t) - m
- multiplier 1/(1-mpe) 1/?1-mpc(1-t)m?
- If mpc .8, t .25, and m .1, the multiplier
is - multiplier 1/?1-.8(1-.25).1? 2
22Fiscal Policy and the Multiplier
- Government Spending
- An increase (decrease) in government spending
will increase (decrease) output by the
multiplier, 1/(1-mpe), times the change in
government spending. - Taxes
- An increase (decrease) in taxes will decrease
(increase) output by -mpc/(1-mpe) times the
change in taxes.
23The IS Curve
- The IS curve shows all combinations of real
interest rates and incomes where the goods market
is in equilibrium. - The multiplier model assumes that investment is
autonomous. - The IS model assumes that investment is inversely
related to the interest rate. - I I0 - I(r)
24Derivation of the IS Curve
AE curve when r4
B
200
?
AE curve when r6
Aggregate Expenditures
?
A
45o
3000
0
1000
Aggregate Output
Real Interest Rate
A
?
6
B
?
IS Curve
4
Aggregate Output
3000
1000
25Shifting the IS Curve
If the multiplier is 3, an increase in
government spending of 1,000 shifts the IS curve
to the right by 3,000.
Real Interest Rate
A
B
?
?
4
IS1
IS0
Aggregate Output
3000
6000
26 Slope of the IS Curve
1. The decline in interest rates increases I0
slightly and the AE curve shifts up by a small
amount.
AE curve when rr0
B
AE curve when rr1
?
?
Aggregate Expenditures
A
2. The multiplier is small, so output rises by
only slightly more than the increase in
autonomous expenditures.
?I
45o
0
Y1
Aggregate Output
Y0
Y0
27Slope of the IS Curve
A
3. The IS is steep because the multiplier is
small and investment is not very sensitive to
the interest rate.
?
r0
B
Real Interest Rate
?
r1
IS (steep)
Y0
Y1
Aggregate Output
28The Money Market and the LM Curve
- The interest rates on the IS curve are determined
by the demand and supply of money in the money
market. - The money market is a financial market where
highly liquid assets (money) are traded. - The LM curve shows equilibrium incomes and
interest rates in the money market.
29The Demand for Money
- The general equation for the demand for money is
- MD MD(Y,i)
- MD represents the demand for money
- Y is income
- MD is positively related to Y
- i is the nominal interest rate
- MD is inversely related to i, the opportunity
cost of holding money -
30Interest Rates, Income, and Money Demand
If income increases from Y0 to Y1, the
quantity of money demanded increases at each
interest rate.
If the interest rate decreases from r0 to r1, the
quantity of money demanded increases from M0 to
M1.
Real Interest Rate
Real Interest Rate
r0
r0
MD (r, Y1)
MD (r)
r1
MD (r, Y0)
Quantity of Money
M0
Quantity of Money
M1
M1
M0
31Autonomous Influences on Money Demand
- Innovation in the financial services industry
- Automatic teller machines decrease the cost of
transferring funds from one account to another
and decrease the demand for money - Expected interest rates
- If higher interest rates are expected in the
future, the demand for money increases
32Equilibrium Interest Rate in the Money Market
Real Interest Rate
The equilibrium interest rate is determined where
the demand and supply of money are equal, at
point A and r0 and M0.
r2
A
r0
r1
MD (Y0, r)
Quantity of Money
M0
M1
M2
33Derivation of the LM Curve
When Y increases from 2000 to 4000, MD increases
and r increases from 4 to 6.
On the LM curve, a higher r (6) is associated
with a higher Y (4000).
Ms
LM Curve
Real Interest Rate
Real Interest Rate
B
B
6
MD (r, Y4000)
A
4
A
MD (r, Y2000)
Aggregate Output
2000
4000
Quantity of Money
34Shifts in the LM Curve
LM3
Aggregate Output
Aggregate Output
35Slope of the LM Curve
Ms
B
B
r1
LM Curve when money demand is very sensitive to
income changes.
Real Interest Rate
MD (r, Y1)
Real Interest Rate
A
r0
A
MD (r, Y0)
Ms
Aggregate Output
Quantity of Money
Y0
Y1
LM Curve when money demand is very sensitive to
interest rate changes.
Real Interest Rate
MD (r, Y1)
D
Real Interest Rate
r1
D
r0
C
C
MD (r, Y0)
Y0
Y1
4
36Monetary Policy and the LM Curve
Quantity of Money
Aggregate Output