The Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring Protocol A Monitoring Solution for National Forest Sys

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The Multiple Species Inventory and Monitoring
ProtocolA Monitoring Solution for National
Forest System lands and the Nation

• Patricia N. Manley, Ph.D and Bea Van Horne, Ph.D.
• USDA Forest Service
• Research and Development
• International Monitoring Science
• and Technology Symposium
• September 2004

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Growing Need for Biodiversity Conservation and
Monitoring

• Johannesburg Earth Summit (2002) highlighted
  increasing sustainability challenges driven by
  population growth
• Recent ecoregional assessments in the US document
  a large proportion of all vertebrate species are
  of concern and interest
• Columbia River Basin 37
• Sierra Nevada 46
• Southern California 38
• Southern Appalachian Mtns 29

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Monitoring Shortfalls

• GAO (1997) reports that monitoring has
  historically been given low priority by the US
  Forest Service - not unlike many public land
  management agencies
• Primary reasons for inadequate monitoring traced
  to the lack of.
• clear objectives
• specified sampling design
• standardized monitoring protocols
• commitment to funding

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MSIM Objectives

• Nationally consistent protocol to provide
  spatially and temporally coincident data on an
  extensive array of vertebrate and plant species
  and their habitats across a broad scale in time
  and space
• Data to be used to meet monitoring obligations
  and information needs to support Land Management
  Planning, regional assessments, and national
  assessments (e.g., RPA)

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National Framework

• Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis
  grid exists on all land ownerships

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National Framework

• Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis
  grid exists on all land ownerships
• Set of primary survey methods are specified that
  are standardized, commonly employed methods
  selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and
  animal species

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National Framework

• Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis
  grid exists on all land ownerships
• Set of primary survey methods are specified that
  are standardized, commonly employed methods
  selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and
  animal species
• Presence data are the target for population
  monitoring, but many methods yield more
  information (abundance, population structure)

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National Framework

• Co-located with US Forest Inventory and Analysis
  grid exists on all land ownerships
• Set of primary survey methods are specified that
  are standardized, commonly employed methods
  selected to detect a broad spectrum of plant and
  animal species
• Presence data are the target for population
  monitoring, but many methods yield more
  information (abundance, population structure)
• Regional scale design and implementation (survey
  methods, sample size, grid density, resample
  frequency)

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FIA Grid

• Hexagonal grid across entire country
• 2400 ha cell size one monitoring point/cell

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Primary Survey Methods Birds
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Primary Survey Methods Mammals

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Primary Survey Methods Amphibians and Reptiles

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Primary Survey Methods Vascular Plants
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Monitoring point
Track stations
Lake
Small pond
Bat mist nets
Live trapping
Meadow
Bird point counts
Pitfalls
Aq. vert. surveys
Conifer forest
Plant surveys
Habitat measures
Riparian
Note not to scale.
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Augmented Serially Alternating Panel (ASAP)
Design
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MSIM Simulated Implementation

• We asked the question
• If we implemented 10 primary
• survey methods
• At each FIA grid point on federal lands
• in the Sierra Nevada, and
• Based on estimates of the number of points in
  each species range and their probability of
  detection with the 10 protocols, then
• Which species would we expect to observe at
  enough points to detect gt 20 relative change
  between two time periods with 80 confidence and
  power?

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MSIM Predicted Effectiveness

• Over 70 of all vertebrate species were predicted
  to be observed frequently enough to detect a 20
  change
• Species represented a balance of life history
  characteristics, habitat associations, and
  species of concern and interest

Manley et al. 2004 Ecological Applications
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Sierra Nevada Pilot Study
Sierra Nevada
Lake Tahoe
Lake Tahoe
FIA hexagon
FIA hexagon
clusters
clusters
California
California
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Pilot Test Objectives

• Evaluate effectiveness of survey methods
• Species expected present vs. detected
• Detection probabilities
• Evaluate sampling efficiency per point
• Number of sites
• Number of visits per site
• Evaluate trend detection capability
• Cost, feasibility, sampling options

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Preliminary Pilot ResultsSpecies Detections
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Survey Effort Evaluation
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Power Analysis
P
.5, n328, m263, S
2, S
2,
a
.2
1
1
2
Detection probability
1.0
0.2
0.9
0.3
0.5
0.8
0.7
Simulated Power
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
Baldwin and King in prep
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Change from P1
1
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Potential Yields from MSIM

• Monitoring
• At the scale of most national forests
• For other land allocations of interest, such as
  wilderness
• For hundreds of species of plants and animals
• Proportion of points occupied
• Spatial distribution and site occupancy
• Estimates of abundance for land birds, small
  mammals, and plants
• Measures of population structure (age ratio, sex
  ratio, reproduction) 

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Potential Yields from MSIM

• Scientific Discovery
• Environmental thresholds for populations
• Community structure and dynamics under a wide
  variety of environmental conditions
• Models of suitable habitat at site and landscape
  scales for many species
• Indicators and direct measures of sustainability
  derived from empirical data

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