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Floods to Droughts

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NOAA NWS Central Region Headquarters, Kansas City, MO ... U tube. Online Radio. TV station web pages. News Papers Online. Blogs. Twitter ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Floods to Droughts


1
Floods to Droughts
  • Wendy L. Pearson, Hydrologist
  • NOAA NWS Central Region Headquarters, Kansas
    City, MO

2
Living Near the River
http//www.classzone.com/books/earth_science/terc/
content/investigations/es1308/es1308page01.cfm
3
NOAAs NWS Mission
  • Provide weather, hydrologic, and climate
    forecasts and warnings for the United States for
    the protection of life and property and the
    enhancement of the national economy

4
Flood Safety
http//www.floodsafety.noaa.gov
http//www.floodsafety.com/

Vehicles can be swept downstream in as little
as 6 inches of moving water.
5
Water Cycle
6
How Water is Used Reused
7
Reliable Water Information and Services for
Decision Makers
Water Management
Drought Mitigation Flood Control Public Safety
(Flash Floods, Debris Flow) Water Supply Waterway
Commerce Power Generation Agriculture Recreation E
cosystem Health
Weather and Climate Information Temperature Preci
pitation Wind,
Water Information
Hydrology and Water Resource Modeling
Summit to the Sea
Socioeconomic Sciences
8
What is a Flood?
  • Flash Flood
  • River Flood
  • Low Water Crossing
  • Hurricane Storm Surge
  • Hurricane Inland Flooding
  • Snowmelt Flooding
  • Overland Flooding
  • Dam Failures

9
Severity of Flooding
  • Minor Flooding
  • Moderate Flooding
  • Major Flooding
  • Record Flooding

10
Frequency of Flooding
100 year flood 1 Flood 500 year flood 0.2
Flood
11
NOAA Water Forecasts Where you are, when you
need them
  • Snowpack
  • Precipitation
  • Soil moisture
  • River flow
  • Surface storage
  • Ground water

Flood warnings for local communities
Critical hydrologic information for
neighborhoods and watersheds Water
supply and soil condition forecasts
for drought risk management
Working Together Federal, Tribal, State, and
Local Agencies, Private Sector and Academia
12
NOAA Hydrologic Service Delivery
13 River Forecast Centers (Areas are in Color)
122 Weather Forecast Offices (Areas Outlined in
Black)
Hydrometeorological Prediction Center
(HPC) Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) Climate
Prediction Center (CPC) Camp Springs, MD
13
NWS Products and ServicesRiver Forecast Centers
NCEP QPF
WFO NEXRAD 1
WFO NEXRAD 2
WFO NEXRAD 3
  • Short and Extended Range Streamflow Forecasts
  • Flash Flood Guidance
  • Interagency Support Activities
  • Hydrometeorological Discussions
  • Hydrometeorological Support Products and Services

NCEP Graphical and
Gridded Products
14
NWS Products and ServicesWeather Forecast Offices
NEXRAD
(many)
RFC Graphical, Gridded,and Tabular Products
(many)
Warnings


Public Forecasts

  • Public Forecast and Warnings
  • Flash Flood Forecast and Warnings
  • Service Hydrologist Customer Coordination
  • Warning Coordination Meteorologist Service
    Coordination / Outreach

NCEP Weather and Climate Graphical and Gridded
Products
15
River level data
16
Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
http//www.weather.gov/ahps/
  • Provide improved water availability and flood
    warning information by leveraging NOAAs
    infrastructure and expertise
  • Modernize services through infusion of new
    science and technology
  • Enhanced decision support
  • Quantification of forecast certainty
  • More accurate and timely forecasts and warnings
  • Flood mapping
  • Visually products

17
Outlook vs. Forecast
18
Probability Information
Two Ensembles
  • Conditional Simulations (CS)
  • 55 simulations each starting with the current
    model states only
  • Blend of forecast and historic data drive the
    model
  • Historical Simulation (HS)
  • one simulation for entire period of record
  • 55 Hydrographs starting over a range of initial
    conditions
  • Represents the hydrologic model climatology

19
Decision Support InformationConveying Certainty
Difference indicates relative departure from
normal
Low Flow Information
20
Fargo, ND 2009
Iowa City 2009
Cedar Rapids 2009
Cedar Rapids 2008
21
Distributed Hydrologic Modeling
  • Generate high resolution soil moisture estimates
  • Agricultural use
  • Debris flows
  • Drought
  • Extend to finer scales
  • Accommodate land use change impacts

22
Flood Inundation Mapping
Located with NWS river forecast
locations Depicts flooding from minor to
historical levels Communities can see potential
impacts to the flood-prone areas NOAA is working
with partners states, FEMA, USGS, and USACE to
communicate Flood Risks.
23
NOAA National Weather Service
  • AHPS Flood Mapping depends on partnerships,
    diligence, dedication, and commitment.

24
New Business Model for Water Forecasting
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
  • The new approach provides
  • Open system architecture to easily accommodate
    addition of models, data, and procedures
  • Modern platform for collaboration with
    national/international agencies, universities,
    and private sector to leverage work of others
  • Historically, organizations and groups
  • Worked independently
  • Developed their own unlinked systems
  • Duplicated efforts
  • Used disparate tools and processes



HistoricalApproach
New Approach
25
Emerging Strategy to Advance Water Forecasting
  • Enable Full Use of Existing and New Observing
    Systems
  • Accelerate Research-to-Operations
  • Incorporate models and science developed by
    partners
  • Deploy integrated (water, climate, ecosystem
    information) services for time scales of hours to
    months

Private Sector
Bureau of Reclamation
Integrated Water Resources Science and Services
(IWRSS)
EPA
User Needs and Requirements
NOAAs RD and Testbeds
High Resolution Observations and Models
Community Hydrologic Prediction System
NASA
USGS
NOAAs Unified Mission Delivery and Support
Services
Regional Demonstration Projects
USACE
USDA
Academia
26
Initial Federal Partnership for Integrated Water
Resources Science and Services
Hydraulic Engineering Center
Hydrology Program
Water Resources Institute
Coastal Services Center
USACE
NOAA
Remote Sensing Centers
Hydromet Testbed
Forecast Offices
Cold Regions Research Lab
USGS
Water Discipline
Water Science Centers
Geography Discipline
  • Aligning multi-agency collaboration is essential
  • Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of
    consistent water resources monitoring and
    forecast information summit to sea
  • Sustain quality of life and the natural
    environment
  • No water agency can meet the full array of
    climate change-induced water problems on its own

27
Integrating to Address the Challenges ForAll
Water Agencies
  • In this century, the U.S. will be challenged to
    provide sufficient quantities of high-quality
    water to its growing population.
  • - National Research Council
  • Estimates of economic losses from recent western
    droughts are billions of dollars.
  • - Western Governors Association
  • Competition for increasingly limited freshwater
    resources will make water supply availability a
    major economic driver in the 21st century.
  • - Nature
  • The provision of adequate fresh-water resources
    for humans and ecosystems will be one of the most
    critical and potentially contentious issues
    facing society and governments at all levels in
    the 21st century.
  • - American Meteorological Society

Integrating Water Science and Services
  • To address growing demand for relevant and
    reliable water information, we must integrate
    our water science and services to provide our
    Nation with water information when and where it
    is needed.

28
Drought Monitor
29
Homework
  • Safety is always 1
  • Water runs down hill but which way is that?
  • What kind of flood is it?
  • What were the contributing factors?
  • What factors will increase uncertainty of
    forecast?
  • Can I help explain forecasts?
  • Societal and Economic Impacts?
  • What are the roles and responsibilities of local,
    state, and federal organizations involved?
  • Media of all types are partners with NOAA NWS.
    We need storytellers to tell the flood forecast
    story!

30
When FLOODS make Headlines
  • Deaths
  • Record Flooding
  • Evacuations
  • Possible Disasters
  • Millions of Sandbags and thousands of volunteers
  • Road closures and washouts

31
NWS Message
  • Text and Graphics online
  • Talking Points and Sound Bites
  • Headlines
  • Complex Situations
  • Scientific Jargon
  • Uncertainty

32
New Media
  • Internet
  • U tube
  • Online Radio
  • TV station web pages
  • News Papers Online
  • Blogs
  • Twitter

33
Flood News in Pictures
  • http//www.boston.com/bigpicture/2009/03/red_river
    _flooding.html
  • http//www.iowaflood.com/
  • http//nd.water.usgs.gov/photos/1997RedFlood/
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