Structure of the Presentation

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Structure of the Presentation

• Current state of foresight/strategic intelligence
• Unusual Case 1 structural priority-setting
• Unusual Case 2 thematic priority setting
• The role for quantification
• Conclusions

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Current state of foresight/strategic intelligence

• A climate of urgency to address the future
• Increased adoption at many levels and in many
  forms
• Varied roles
• an expert-based policy informing tool
• an integral part of policy processes, operating
  by forward looking strategic support to informing
  and co-ordinating functions
• a pacemaker through capacity building for policy
  intelligence
• a tool for impact assessment.

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Structural priority-setting in the Australian
Innovation Reviewhttp//www.innovation.gov.au/in
novationreview
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The Reviews Perspective on Innovation

• Innovation is commonly described as creating
  value by doing things differently. From this
  viewpoint we can only identify innovation after
  the event.
• If we are going to influence innovation outcomes
  we need an active appreciation of the dynamic
  processes associated with innovation that lead to
  change. Thus the focus should be on innovating
  and being innovative.

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The Context of the Review

• change of Government after 11 years
• a series of reviews of education, universities,
  industrial relations, the federal system of
  government, the tax system, emissions trading,
  the auto and TCF industries, and the CRC program
• declining investment and performance,
  particularly in the past 5 years
• A decline by 25 of Govt funding for RI as of
  GDP
• Investment in education declined as a of GDP
  while other OECD countries were massively
  increasing theirs
• Zero increase in multi-factor productivity

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A Systems Approach

• The Review takes a systems approach to
  understanding Australias innovation performance
  and challenges. This means treating all the
  elements of the innovation system as a dynamic
  and interconnected whole, not just concentrating
  on single components.

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Issues for Submissions

• Can we imagine a better world? Are we asking the
  right questions?
• How do we solve the big challenges we face?
• Could we do everyday things better?
• How do we make it easier for people to apply
  ideas in novel ways?
• How do we educate our people to be more creative?

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The Strategic Intelligence Component

• Not a formal foresight process
• Extraction of views of a desired future contained
  in gt700 submissions
• Interpreted through the experiences and a strong
  vision of the Committee of Review
• Projection of a series of structural targets

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Structural targets (quantitative)

• Total factor productivity growth gt2.5pa
• gt40 of employees with tertiary education
• 50 of firms produce new-to-market innovations pa
• 70 of firms produce non-tech innovation pa
• Firm collaboration with PROs gt50
• Firm collaboration with HEIs gt30

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Thematic priority-setting via the CSIRO Flagship
Programhttp//www.csiro.au/partnerships/NRF.html

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National Research Flagships

• the largest scientific research programs ever
  undertaken in Australia with total investment
  to 201011 of more than 1.5 billion
• Flagships recognise that complex large-scale
  challenges require sophisticated cross-boundary
  responses that can only be delivered by bringing
  together the best and the brightest from across
  the Australian innovation system
• Focused on major national priorities
• Focused on outcomes. committed to delivering
  research solutions that target clearly defined
  goals
• They have a larger scale, longer timeframes and
  stronger focus on adoption of research outputs
  than other programs

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Nine Flagships

• Energy
• Water
• Health
• Light metals
• Oceans
• Food
• Climate adaptation
• Minerals
• Niche manufacturing (nanotechnology)

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Energy Transformed Flagship

• Goals To
• halve greenhouse gas emissions
• double the efficiency of the nations new energy
  generation, supply and end use
• position Australia for a future hydrogen economy
• by 2050

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Some Activities

• SolarGas- a new energy source which contains 25
  more energy than the natural gas used to feed the
  process
• Post Combustion Carbon Capture
• Enhanced Coal Bed Methane extraction
• The Ultra Battery
• Responsive intelligent distributed energy network
• Distributed generation
• CO2 sequestration in coal
• CO2 behaviour in deep saline aquifers

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The Crucial Steering Mechanism - The Energy
Futures Forum

• The Energy Futures Forum brings together
  Australias energy and transport stakeholders to
  identify plausible scenarios for energy in 2050
  and their implications for the nations energy
  future.
• Stakeholders included energy suppliers,
  generators, distributors, major energy end-users,
  financiers, government and community
  representatives.
• Eight scenarios were developed from a base case
  with variants incorporating nuclear, renewable
  energy, distributed energy and deep greenhouse
  gas cut scenarios.

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The Role for Quantification in Foresight
important qualifiers

• Quantification does not provide greater truth or
  precision unless the supporting theories and
  models adequately reflect underlying structures
  and relationships
• Processes (like foresight) are largely defined in
  qualitative terms eg management, strategy, but
  can be supported by metrics

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Some Quantitative Approaches being used in
Foresight

• Process and decision-models embedded in software
  eg scenario generation
• Simulation tools
• Complex adaptive systems modelling
• Cross-impact analysis
• Gaming
• Data mining
• Impact evaluation

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Conclusions

• Foresight/strategic intelligence processes, tools
  and applications are multiplying
• Practice is far in advance of an adequate
  theoretical conception
• There is need for both radical and incremental
  development of both qualitative and quantitative
  approaches