THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF BIOTERRORISM THREAT Episode II. OBJECTIVES, METHOD, TASKS

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THE INTEGRAL ASSESSMENT OF BIOTERRORISM
THREATEpisode II. OBJECTIVES, METHOD, TASKS
Glushkov Institute of Cybernetics National
Academy of Sciences of Ukraine
Konstantyn Atoyev
2
Behold, I give unto you power to tread on
serpents and scorpions, and over all the power
of the enemy and nothing shall by any means hurt
you.
New Testment St Luka 1019
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OBJECTIVES
The Tragedy in the USA has illuminated Two
Problems
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The problem of early recognition of risks
and identification and ran-king of critical
factors, which deter-mine rare events realisation.
The problem of minimizing the effects of
terrorist acts on civilian population.
5
The therrorist attack and mass outbreak of
anthrax spreading through the letters have shown
that even the events with negligible value of
risk can indeed occur. Moreover even if the
realization of rare events causes by oneself
local hazard, its combination with media hypes
leads to a strong multiple effect.
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Rare Events
September, 11
Chernobyl, 1986
Even the events with negligible value of risk can
indeed occur
Problems
Early risk recognition
Minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on
civilian population
Identification and ranking of critical factors,
determining rare events realisation
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It can cause essential damage such as public
fear, undermining of public trust to regulators
up to collapse of economics, depending on its
state. So now we have the principle new threats
for society connected with rare event
realization.
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In this case the task of early recognition of
risks and identification and ranking of critical
factors, which determine rare events, took one
of the central place in modern risk analysis.
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One of the most distinctive features in the study
of such events is difficulty in choice of
adequate mathematical appa- ratus for their
investigation.
10
Indeed, the traditional methods or risk
estimation were elaborated on the basis of theory
of probability. For instance the risk of some
disease is determined as ratio of total amount of
patients with this diseases to total population.

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RISK ASSESSMENT
Mathematical Methods
CATASTROPHESs THEORY
STATISTICS
Approximation to the bifur-cation values of
parameters
UNITS
Probability
RESTRICTIONS
Samples completeness
Unique character of event
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However, the theory of probability can-not be
correctly utilized for risk assess-ment in some
cases, especially with the absence or
incompleteness of data due to unique character of
event.
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METHOD
The bioterrorism as phenomena is con-nected not
only with bio-medical and epidemiological
threats, but also deter-mined by complex
ecological, econo-mical, mental and social
peculiarities of concrete country and time.
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Each bioterrorist act and all problems associated
with its consequences have individual features.
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That is why it is not correctly to utilize for
risk assessment of bioterrorist act in one
country the statistical data received under other
conditions in various countries.
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In this case widespread gets under-standing that
the unique and single character of so
sophisticated subject as bioterrotist attack and
its consequences does not allow in some cases to
use correctly the theory of probability for risk
assessment.
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There is another approach to risk assessment,
which may prove to be more useful here. It allows
not only risk estimation, but also description of
the quantitative characteristic of reserve
possibilities of the system and its components
10-14.
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Risk estimation is carried out using the theory
of smooth functions 15 allowing the
determination of critical parameter values which
describe the levels of control system intensities
and reserve possibilities. The risk is estimated
on a degree of the system parameter approximation
of the bifurcation values, which characterize the
systems transition from one steady state (norm),
to another (catastrophe).
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APPLICATIONS
This approach was utili-zed for following tasks
TASKS
OPTIMIZATION
ANALYSIS
CONTROL
ECONO MICS
ECOSYSTEMS
BIOTER-RORISM
DECIGN MAKING
RISK ASSES- SMENT
MICRO-BIOLOGY
SOCIAL POLITICS
EPIDEMI-OLOGY
DANGEROUS OBJECTS
FIELDS
HEALTH CARE
FORECASTING
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The threat of bioterrorsm
The shit of high risk
The shit of middle risk
Norm
Economical index
Bio-medical index
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The state of society is examined as complex
interrelations in hexagon of security, which is
determined by following factors
epidemiological, social, medico-biologic
al, ecological, mental,
economical
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Economical threats
Social threats
Medico-biolo-gical threats
Ecological threats
Mental threats
Epidemiological threats
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All arsenal of threats, including bioterrorism,
have the potential to upset intricate balance
that exist within the hexagon of security by
either altering the environment, economics social
and epidemiological situation or upsetting
mental and medico-biological spheres.
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The disbalance within the hexagon of security is
the most formidable threat, that we all must do
our best to prevent, as it leads to transition
from one systems steady state (norm), to another
(crisis or catastrophe). The dynamics of these
system parameters is determined with the help of
dynamic modeling.
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The main advantage of this approach is the
determination of risk dynamics as the function of
dynamic variables of the investigated system.
It also allows to identify the weakest link of
system and the areas that need improvement
10-14.
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ALGORITHM OF RISK ASSESSMENT
1. Information characterizing interre-lations
in hexagon of security is inputted from Data
Bases.
2. The indices characterizing these
interrelations are estimated by means of
developed mathematical models with the help of
inputted data.
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3. The bifurcation values of the para-meters,
characterizing the balance dis-turbanses in the
hexagon of security are calculated.
4. Restoration possibilities of each of
considered systems are estimated by remoteness of
parameter characterizing appropriate index from
its bifurcation value.
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MAIN TASKS
The computer technology for assessment of
bioterrorism threat and minimization the effects
of terrorist acts on civilian populations,
including the risk of various epidemic spreading.
should allow to solve the following tasks
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TASK 1.
Investigation of bioterrorist threat dynamics on
the basis of risk assessment of bioterrorist
attack and forecasting of the terrorist act
consequences depending on interrelations hexagon
of security
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TASK 2.
Determination of impacts, minimizing the effects
of terrorist acts on civilian population,
specifically the optimal means redistribution to
increase the efficacy of bioterrorist acts
prevention and elaboration the recommendations
for their consequence liquidation.
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TASK 3.
The ranking of different world regions on the
degree of bioterrorist threat and damage after
potential bioterrorist attacks.
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MAIN ADVANTAGE
The main advantage of this approach is the
determination of bioterrorist attack risk
dynamics as the function of dynamic variables,
characterizing the interrelations in the hexagon
of security (social, economical,
political, ecological, epidemiological and
biomedical).
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It allows to solve the
following tasks
1. Identification of the weakest link under
various scenarios of bioterrorist attacks and
means redistribution for help to national
services responsible for bioterrorist attacks
prevention and liquidation of their consequences.
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2. Identification of the weakest link and area of
needed improvement and ranking countries on their
weakness and vulnerability to possible
bioterrorist attack and evaluation of capability
to respond effectively to the threat of
bioterrorism and to deal with consequences of
terrorist attack.
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3. Investigation of bioterrorist threat
dynamics on the basis of risk assessment of
bioterrorist attack and forecasting of the
terrorist act consequences depending on
economical, social and ecological situation.
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4. Determination of effective impacts (controls),
minimizing the effects of terrorist acts on
civilian populations.
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This lecture is based on
10. Atoyev K. Risk Assessment in Ukraine New
Approaches and Strategy of Development //
Asses-sment and management of environmental
risks methods and applications in eastern
European and developing countries-,Kluwer, 2001,
pp. 195-202 11. Atoyev K., Rykhtovsky V. Computer
technology for health risk estimation and
mana-gement // Foresight and Precaution ESREL
2000 and SRAEurope ANNUAL CONFERENCE (Edinburg
2000), Belcema Publishers, 2000, Rotterdam,
Netherlands, pp. 109-115
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12 .Atoyev K. Risk Assessment in Ukraine New
Approaches and Strategy of Development //
Asses-sment and management of environmental
risks methods and applications in eastern
European and developing countries-,Kluwer, 2001,
pp. 195-202 13. ?toyev K. , Slesarev Yu.
Epidemiological Risk Management in Ukraine New
Approaches and Strategy of Development// Proc.
SRA-2001 Annual Meeting , Risk Analysis in an
Interconnected World Seattle, WA
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14. Atoyev K. New Approaches to Epidemiological
Risk Assessment Management // Supercourse
Epidemiology, the Internet and Global Health.-
Pittsburgh Disease Monitoring and
Telecommunication WHO Collaborating Center, 2002.
15. Guastello, S.J. (1988) The
organizational security subsystem some
potentially catastrophic events, Behavioral
Science 33, 48-58.