Integrated Framework for Sustainable Energy Policies, current and future the integrated NEEDS toolbo

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Integrated Framework for Sustainable Energy
Policies, current and future(the integrated
NEEDS toolbox)
SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMME 6.1
Sustainable Energy Systems
Richard Loulou, Kanlo Andrea Ricci,
ISIS Brussels, 17.2.2009
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A View on NEEDS achievements

• Developed and implemented concepts and databases
  for the full cost, full life cycle analyses for a
  number of key energy technologies
• Developed an integrating framework to look at
  energy technologies and at European
  socio-economics, as a single European Energy
  System rather than as separate objects
• Outlined and demonstrated full cost analysis of
  the EU system that internalizes externalities
• Demonstrated the use of such a tool on a few key
  socio-economic-energy-environment scenarios
• Established an important platform for future
  refinements and enhancements of full cost
  analyses

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I. NEEDS Integrated Tool Box
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What to integrate/harmonise?

• Socio-economic fundamentals (POP, GDP, tech.
  progress)
• Common Technology Database
• Life Cycle Data (energy, materials, emissions,
  direct costs)
• External costs (cost of damages from emissions)
• Coherent Technology Pathways
• Risk and Other Social Indicators not captured
  above

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HARMONIZING INTEGRATIVE INTERACTIONS
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1. Socio-economic drivers

• The main Drivers are obtained from a Global CGE
  model (GEM-E3)
• Population, Households growth rates
• Technical progress (e.g. exogenous energy
  efficiency improvements)
• Sectoral outputs growth rates
• The Linkage to the TIMES Pan EU Model (PEM)
• Demand trajectories for energy services are
  calculated from the Drivers
• Energy resources and reserves are established
• Calibration to initial years energy system is
  effected
• Existing Environmental Policies (emission caps,
  taxes, measures) are incorporated into the TIMES
  Models database

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2. Technology database

• List of (EPG only) technologies.
• For each existing and future technology
• Dates of availability, technical life, limits to
  penetration
• Energy related characteristics (efficiencies,
  utilization factors, seasonal availabilities, ..)
• Unit costs (capital, annual) for construction,
  operation, and dismantling
• Construction and dismantling lead-times (if
  applicable)
• Emissions per unit of investment, dismantling,
  operation

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3. Life Cycle Information

• Approach Energy, materials, and emission
  coefficients linked to
• Construction
• Operation
• Dismantling,
• Per unit of each technology considered
• In NEEDS, we obtained emission coefficients for
  Construction and Dismantling, others were already
  accounted for in the PEM

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4. External Costs

• Primary Substances emissions
• Secondary substances
• Impacts (air quality, health,
  environment)
• Monetization (damage
  costs)
• Inputs to TIMES
• 1. Obtain Exernal costs per unit of emission of
  each type (when this emission is modeled in
  TIMES)
• OR
• 2. Obtain external costs incurred per unit of a
  technology (when this type of emission is not
  modeled in TIMES)
• Important remarks
• Valid if cost is a (locally) linear function of
  emissions.
• However, non-linear but convex function is also
  OK.

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5. Augmented common technical database

• List of energy technologies in all sectors,
  existing and future.
• For each technology
• Dates of availability, technical life, limits to
  penetration
• Energy related characteristics (efficiencies,
  utilization factors, seasonal availabilities, ..)
• Unit costs (capital, annual) at construction,
  operation, and dismantling
• Construction and dismantling lead-times (if
  applicable)
• Emissions per unit of capacity, operation,
  investment
• External cost per unit of EPG technology, due to
  construction
• External cost per additional unit of emission
  (each substance)

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6. Coherent technological Pathways
SOCIO-ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCENARIO
TECHNOLOGY, FUEL, TRADE PATHWAY
PAN-EU MODEL (TIMES)
AUGMENTED TECHNOLOGY DATABASE
AS MANY PATHWAYS AS THERE ARE SCENARIOS
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Coherent pathways

• TIMES constructs a coherent technology and fuel
  pathway for the inter-connected EU countries, by
  optimizing technology, fuel, and trade choices
  over the entire horizon, taking into account
  life-cycle energy and emissions, and external
  costs. The model calculates a least cost
  equilibrium solution for the entire system.
• The need for iterating between energy model and
  LCA/External cost calculations is eliminated.
• However, other indicators influencing technology
  selection (risk, other social indicators) are not
  yet taken into consideration.
• CAVEAT Since LCA and External Costs were
  provided only for EPG technologies, the other
  TIMES technologies have a cost advantage ...

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II. From NEEDS onwards
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NEEDS as stepping stone

• The model and data developed in NEEDS are crucial
  for future work on the EU energy system. The
  NEEDS investment has already
• produced a number of spinoff projects,
• inspired new research, and
• allowed new accomplishments

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Current EU Projects ( Proposals)using Pan-EU
TIMES models

• RES2020 2007-2009 Focus on renewable energy for
  EU at horizon 2020 and beyond
• PLANETS 2008-2010 Focus on advances on how to
  deal with uncertainty in global and EU Climate
  Policies
• REACCESS 2008-2010 Focus on Security of Energy
  Supply for EU at horizon 2050
• REALISEGRID 2008-2010 Focus on Intra-EU (
  Balkans) Electricity Exchanges and Infrastructure
• ADAPTER proposal Focus on integrating Impacts
  and Adaptation in EU Climate Policies
• RAGTIMES proposal Integration of uncertainty
  and adaptation measures in the Climate economics
  and policy framework for the EU.

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The way forward RTD

• Extension/harmonisation of LCA, externalities
  valuation and stakeholders perspective to all
  energy technologies (e.g. heating)
• New dispersion models and new background emission
  scenarios to account for non linearities of ER
  functions
• Further reduce uncertainties in the assessment of
  both physical phenomena and their monetary
  valuation (e.g. damage costs of climate change)
• Fresh (original) evidence on health and mortality
  effects in NMS and non-EU countries (limited
  transferability)
• More robust quantification of soft
  sustainability indicators (e.g. social )
• Further integration of non monetizable
  dimensions (e.g. risk comfort, etc.) in coherent
  anlytical framework (e.g. through iterative
  approaches, or through Multi Objective Decision
  Analysis)

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The way forwardexploitation and dissemination

• Additional scenarios to account for emerging
  policy priorities and developments (e.g.
  extension of ETS, enanced decentralization/integra
  tion of energy systems, etc.)
• Incorporating feedback from stakeholders analysis
  into externality valuation and modelling
  (iterations)
• From Pan-EU to worlwide modelling
• Further dissemination gt better understanding and
  wider use of externalities estimates by policy
  and decision makers