Hawaii Real Estate Current Conditions UHERO Methods Carl Bonham AUBER Fall Conference Memphis, TN Oc

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Hawaii Real EstateCurrent Conditions UHERO
Methods Carl BonhamAUBER Fall
ConferenceMemphis, TN October 15, 2006
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UHERO Real Estate Models

• UHERO Construction Model
• Key component is home price forecast
• ECM for home price
• Generates cycle-- when Price exceeds
  fundamentals disequilibrium forces prices to
  stall or decline (depends on size of a and
  equlibrium relationship (b1, b2)
• Residential Permits also ECM between permit
  values and affordable price.

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UHERO Real Estate Models

• UHERO MSA forecasts
• Home price forecasts for 300 MSA for Fidelity
  National Information Service.
• Use a variety of specifications including linear
  and nonlinear models, ECM.
• Beginning to study threshold ECM as possible way
  to model bubbles and near bubbles.

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Hawaii Real Estate current conditions
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Hawaii Real Estate Days on Market
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Hawaii Real Estate Oahu Inventory vs Resales
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Hawaii Real Estate County Prices
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Median Resale Prices Oahu vs West Coast
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Median Resale Prices Maui vs West Coast
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Oahu Median Home Price Forecast
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ROC forecast record
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ROC forecast record
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ROC forecast record
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MEM forecast scenarios
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Hawaii Real EstateCurrent Conditions UHERO
Methods Carl BonhamAUBER Fall
ConferenceMemphis, TN October 15, 2006