honolulutraffic'com

1
honolulutraffic.com

• Seeking cost effective ways to reduce
• Oahus traffic congestion

2
HOT BRT Bus/Rapid Transit (BRT) running in
High-Occupancy Toll (HOT) lanes

• or
• RAIL TRANSIT

3
Benefits Costs of the alternatives

• Will they reduce congestion?
• Are the costs reasonable?

The normal way that business people approach
planning on a large project is to first roughly
estimate the costs, then estimate the benefits
and then ask, Are we in the ballpark? If yes,
then the planning proceeds, with constant
refinement of costs and benefits. The city is
not doing that. We know which stations will have
escalators but not whether rail will reduce
traffic congestion, the most important benefit,
or at what cost. So lets look at the chances of
rail giving us a reduction in traffic congestion
and what rail will cost. And then look at HOT
lanes and what they could do for us.
www.honolulutraffic.com
4
Commuting on Oahu, 1980-2000
First, a little history. This is the Census data
for Honolulu. Notice that drivers have been
increasing and transit is in decline both in
percentages and in absolute numbers. The trend
continues.
www.honolulutraffic.com
5
It is the same nationally. A continual decline in
the use of public transportation and increases in
drivers decade after decade.
www.honolulutraffic.com
6
8/80 principle

• The 8/80 principle says public transportation
  is so small a percentage of commuting, that
  unless we triple or quadruple the percentage it
  have little impact on the huge percentage of
  drivers. That has not happened anywhere it has
  declined.

We are coining the idea of the 8/80 principle
to focus people on the importance of the
percentage of commuters using public
transportation of any kind
www.honolulutraffic.com
7
The 8/80 principle

• Oahu commuters
• 8 use TheBus.
• 80 drive

• The city forecasts 130,000 new commuters by 2030.
• If we maintain these percentages
• 10,000 of these new commuters will use bus
  and/or rail
• 100,000 will drive.
• But no metro area has ever increased the
  percentage of transit commuters over any 20 year
  period.

This is where the 8/80 principle comes from How
Oahu commuters get to work. As of 2000, 34,000
Oahu commuters used transit. To keep the same
level of traffic congestion as 2000, about
110,000 commuters would have to use transit, or
about 3.5 times the number currently, or 20
percent of all commuters and that would be
greater than any place other than New York.
8
8/80 principle for Vancouver, 1993-2003
Source www.translink.bc.ca/files/pdf/plan_proj/10
year_project.pdf page 10.
Heres the 8/80 principle as work in the poster
child city of Vancouver. They maintained the same
percentages of commuters using transit and autos.
Consequently their 295,000 new commuters split
7411 resulting in a 32 thousand increase in
transit commuters, which people rave about BUT
two hundred thousand increase in drivers.
www.honolulutraffic.com
9
8/80 principle for Portland 1990-2000
Heres the 8/80 principle at work in Portland.
Net result 21 thousand new transit commuters BUT
one hundred and seventy new drivers.
www.honolulutraffic.com
U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highways
Administration file msacomparison. xls
10
U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highways
Administration file msacomparison. xls
Most of the other cities performed worse than
Vancouver and Portland that is why on average in
the nation, commuter usage of transit slid from
5.3 to 4.7 percent and drivers increased from
73.2 to 75.7 percent. With 13 million new
commuters it meant that we had 13 million more
drivers and no new transit users.
www.honolulutraffic.com
11
Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles
San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston
Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento
Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis
Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh
All 20 Metro Areas with rail in 2000
These are the 20 Metropolitan Statistical Areas
(MSAs) that have rail lines. The U.S. Dept. of
Transportation uses MSAs, or metro areas, in
discussing urban transportation because it only
makes sense to group contiguous urban areas
together.
www.honolulutraffic.com
12
Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles
San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston
Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento
Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis
Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh
All declined in percentage of commuter use
1980-2000
These metro areas with rail all saw percentage
declines in the commuter use of public
transportation in 1980-2000. The only exception
was that San Diego increased from 3.3 to 3.4
percent essentially nothing to nothing.
www.honolulutraffic.com
13

• 1 Atlanta
• 2 Washington, DC
• 3 Dallas
• 4 Los Angeles
• 6 San Diego
• 8 San Francisco
• 8 Chicago
• 11 Miami
• 15 Boston
• 16 Denver
• 17 Seattle
• 20 Portland
• 22 New York
• 26 Sacramento
• 26 Salt Lake City
• 38 Philadelphia
• 43 St. Louis
• 65 Cleveland
• 65 Buffalo

The worst traffic congestion increases in the
nation, 1982-2003
The Texas Transportation Institute, the nations
guardians of traffic congestion data, list in the
latest Urban Mobility Report, 85 urban areas
listed in order of the worst increase in traffic
congestion in the period 1982-2003. Note that 7
of the 10 worst have rail transit 16 of the 20
rail areas are in the top half of the worst
increases and the other four had little
population growth.
Congestion data from Texas Transportation
Institute, Urban Mobility Study, Table 4.
www.honolulutraffic.com
14
Urban Area Traffic Congestion

• 11 Very Large over 3 million population. All
  with rail lines, except Houston it had the
  least increase in traffic congestion.
• 27 Large 1 to 3 million population half with
  rail lines. The 4 best had no rail lines.
• 30 Medium ½ to 1 million population, includes
  Honolulu. Only Salt Lake City had rail they had
  the third worst increase.
• Congestion data from Texas Transportation
  Institute, Urban Mobility Study, Table 4.

This is another way the Texas Transportation
Institute looks at it by dividing the cities by
population size.
www.honolulutraffic.com
15

• Investing in public transportation of any kind
  will not reduce traffic congestion.
• It may produce other beneficial outcomes but not
  congestion reduction

This may seem like an extraordinary statement but
the evidence is quite clear and reviewing the
data in greater detail than is done here only
confirms the statement. There may be other
benefits to public transportation such as social
justice benefits, or equity reasons, but not the
reduction of traffic congestion.
www.honolulutraffic.com
16
Leeward Corridor Problem

• Highway traffic congestion
• Not insufficient transit.
• You can only relieve traffic congestion by
  expanding highway capacity
• Construct new highways
• Make them more efficient

We can all agree we need new capacity in the
Leeward Corridor. But we must first be honest
with the public because it is their view that our
problem is traffic congestion we do not have a
public transportation problem. In addition, we
have to recognize that, short of using
politically unacceptable congestion pricing on
all freeways, we can only relieve traffic
congestion by building new highways and making
them more efficient.
www.honolulutraffic.com
17
Leeward Corridor capacity increase needed
Bus/Rapid Transit autos on HOT lanes _at_
900 million? OR Rail transit _at_
4.1 billion?
Flexible Buses, van pools, HandiVans, autos,
trucks, ambulances, civil defense, police, tow
trucks, and other emergency vehicles
Inflexible Train riders only when not on
strike.
This is why we suggested the HOT lanes approach.
www.honolulutraffic.com
18
HOV lanes carry more than most rail lines
Voters have been abused for a long time by rail
proponents making statements such as it takes 12
freeway lanes to equal one light rail line. What
nonsense. As we can see here only NYCs subways
move more people than the three largest HOV
facilities.
www.honolulutraffic.com
19
HOV carries more per hour than rail
Portland Eastside MAX light rail line 1,980
people per hour Portlands 6th Avenue HOV lane
8,500 people per hour Quote Both rail and
HOV can serve the person carrying capacity needs
of about any corridor in North America Parsons,
Brinckerhoff HOV Manual
Portland, the light rail poster city makes the
case for us. Their light rail carries much less
than the average HOT lanes. And their HOV lane
carries over four times as much.
Transportation Research Board Highway Capacity
Manual www.honolulutraffic.com/passperhour.htm
www.honolulutraffic.com
20
Reversible non-stop HOT lanes are better
Two lanes into town in the morning and out in the
afternoon. Buses and vanpools have priority, cars
pay tolls electronically. A fast, reliable trip
when needed makes them popular with everyone.

http//www.honolulutraffic.com/lexuslane.htm
www.honolulutraffic.com
This is the 3-lane Tampa reversible toll lanes
due to open later this year.
21
HOT lanes Waikele to Pier 16
We have suggested running a HOT lanes facility
from around the H1/H2 merge down to Pier 16 near
Hilo Hatties.
www.honolulutraffic.com
22
HOT lanes advantages

• Uncongested HOT lane traffic is at 55-60mph but,
  because of station stops, rail only averages 22
  to 28 mph.
• HOT lanes enable buses to make two trips in the
  time it now takes to make one.
• Buses can travel door-to-door whereas rail nearly
  always requires transfers.

Buses can make two trips by returning in the
reverse direction using regular, relatively
uncrowded freeways.
http//www.honolulutraffic.com/railspeed.pdf
www.honolulutraffic.com
23
HOT lanes are more efficient

• A regular freeway lane, such as the H-1
  between Mapunapuna and Kaimuki, during the
  congested peak rush hour now carries just 1,500
  vehicles (cars and buses) per hour with an
  average load of 1.25 people, or 1,875 per lane
  hour.

Freeways peak out at over 2,000 vehicles an hour
when uncongested. As more and more vehicles crowd
onto the freeways at peak hours, the throughput
of vehicles declines until it reaches bottom at
around 1,500 an hour.
www.honolulutraffic.com
24
HOT lanes are more efficient

• A HOT lane during the peak rush hour carries
  1,800 vehicles per hour because of pricing.
• The two HOT lanes will take 3,600 vehicles off
  the regular freeways guaranteed in addition
  to those switching from cars to buses. These will
  be about 25 of auto commuters in the corridor.

The higher average load is because of a greater
ratio of buses to autos and more use of
carpooling on priced lanes. See Poole and Orski.
There is a seeming paradox here that by
restraining drivers from entering the freeway, we
get greater throughput but that is the way it
works. The variable is not whether HOT lanes can
take 3,600 cars of the regular freeway but rather
the toll price that it will take to do that. It
may be 5, or 5 but between these two numbers is
a price that will entice drivers to fill the HOT
lanes.
25
HOT lanes are more efficient

• A HOT lane during the peak rush hour carries
  1,800 vehicles per hour with an average load of
  2.5 people, or 4,500 per lane hour.

The higher average load is because of a greater
ratio of buses to autos and more use of
carpooling on priced lanes. See Poole and Orski.
You will have noticed that the 4,500 people is
2.4 times that of a regular freeway lane.
www.honolulutraffic.com
26
HOT lanes are more efficient

• The two HOT lanes together carry 9,000 people an
  hour.
• Thats the same as nearly five regular freeway
  lanes
• That is more than the people carried by either
  the H-1 or Moanalua freeways.

www.honolulutraffic.com
27
The cost of rail

• Waiau to UH in 1991 1.8 billion
• Inflation 1991-2005 0.7 billion
• Kapolei to Waiau ext 1.6 billion
• Total cost 4.1 billion
• Less Federal funding 0.5 billion
• To be locally funded 3.5 billion

Before cost overruns
The ½ percent GE tax hike is not enough. In the
out years it only covers interest and operating
losses. We will still owe 3 billion 15 years out.
The 1.8 billion is arrived at by taking the
total 1992 FEIS LPA costs and deducting the
No-Build costs.
www.honolulutraffic.com
See honolulutraffic.com spreadsheet
28
HOT lanes do not need a tax hike

• 10 miles _at_ 90 mm a mile 900 million
• Less federal funding (450 million)
• Net local funding needed 450 million
• Toll revenues, 20 million annually growing at ½
  annually plus inflation, will retire a 450
  million bond issue in 25 years.
• According to Braden Smith, CFO of
  Tampa-Hillsborough Expressway Authority (813)
  272-6740 Tampa cost should be 28 million a mile.
  

We are understating the HOT lanes costs somewhat.
The main issue is that they do not need a tax
increase.
www.honolulutraffic.com
29
Summary

• Rail has never improved traffic congestion.
• We have a traffic problem, not a transit problem.
• HOT lanes gives motorists a choice.
• HOT lanes outperform rail transit.
• We can afford HOT lanes we cannot afford rail.

www.honolulutraffic.com
30
Atlanta Washington, DC Dallas Los Angeles
San Diego San Francisco Chicago Miami Boston
Denver Seattle Portland New York Sacramento
Salt Lake City Philadelphia St. Louis
Cleveland Buffalo Pittsburgh
Honolulu would be the smallest metro area with
rail in the U.S. There are 32 larger than us with
no rail.
And worse, the 3.5 billion in local funding
needed would burden our local taxpayers per
capita far more than any other metro area in the
country.
www.honolulutraffic.com
31
honolulutraffic.com

• Seeking cost effective ways to reduce
• Oahus traffic congestion

Thats it. Thanks for staying with us through the
whole presentation!
Questions to info_at_honolulutraffic.com