U'S' Premises Wireless Forecast

1
U.S. Premises Wireless Forecast

• Presentation to 1998 ICFC
• June 9-12, St Louis, Missouri
• Bern Paniak
• Lucent Technologies
• [phone]
• bpaniak_at_lucent.com

2
U.S. Premises Wireless Forecast

• o What is Premises Wireless?
• o New Product Forecasting Methods
• o Current Wireless Forecast

3
Emerging Wireless Technologies

• o Cellular Telephone Networks
• o Personal Communications Service
• o Premises Wireless or In -Building Wireless
• o Fixed Wireless Networks Local Loops
• o Satellite Networks
• o Circuit Data
• o Paging Packet Data
• o Wireless Local Area Networks

4
Basic Need for Wireless Communications

• o Residential Households - Over 50 penetration
• o Cellular Telephone - 50 million in use
• o Pagers Paging Systems - 18 of population
• o Business Cordless - Niche Market

5
Why is Premises Wireless Growing?

• o Accessibility
• o Increase Productivity
• o New Services
• o Lower Costs

6
Characteristics of In-Building Systems

• o Single-zone vs Multi-zone
• o Frequency Band
• o Radio Standard

7
TransTalk 9000 Digital Wireless System

• Single-zone system for small-to mid-size
  businesses and departmental solution for large
  businesses
• Up to 30 users per zone
• 900 MHz ISM unlicensed spectrum
• Provides coverage in 500-900 ft. radius from base

8
Mobility Around the Workplace
DEFINITY Wireless Business System

• Many Cells - Workplace/Campus
• Total Coverage up to 4M sq. ft.

9
Choices for In Building Wireless Technologies

• o Unlicensed ISM 902-928 MHz
• o Licensed Cellular 824-894 MHz
• o Unlicensed PCS 1920 - 1930 MHz
• o Licensed PCS 1850 - 1990 MHz

10
UTAM Inc.Unlicensed PCS Transition Management

• o Designed Spectrum Coordination Relocation
  Facilitator by the FCC
• o Insure U-PCS Systems Do Not Cause Interference
  to Microwave Licensees
• o Two Deployment Zones

11
Emerging Technologies (ET) Band for PCS

• Unlicensed PCS 1910-1930 MHz
• Asynchronous (mostly data) 1910-1920 MHz
• Isochronous (mostly voice) 1920-1930 MHz

12
Radio Spectrum Allocation
13
Current Wireless Products
Product End-User Price Radio
Frequency Standard Astronet
1,140 Cellular
AMPS Nortel 1,200
Cellular TDMA Panasonic
1,040 Cellular
AMPS Ericsson
1,125 ISM
PWT Lucent Tech. 950
ISM PWT SpectraLink
1,040 ISM
Proprietary Ericsson 1,400
U-PCS PWT Harris
1,000 U-PCS
Proprietary Lucent Tech. 1,400
U-PCS PWT Nortel
1,250 U-PCS
PCI Tadiran
1,650 U-PCS
Proprietary
14
New Product Forecasting MethodsMarket Research
- Survey Data
CUMULATIVE 0.8 1.8
4.0 6.0
9.8 11
15
Willingness to Pay
0 10
20 30
gt30
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New Product Forecasting Analogy

• Facsimile
• Cellular
• Pagers
• Answering Machines
• Cordless

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New Product Forecasting Analogy
Year
18
Estimated Fax Penetration Rate
19
Forecast Assumptions

• Not Everyone Wants Wireless
• Estimate 10 - 5 Penetration over 10 years
• (Range 11 - 30)
• Prices continue to decline 5-15 per annum
• Desktop replacement available 1999-2000

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U.S. Premises Wireless Forecast
21
Annual Growth - Shipments
22
Average Price Forecast
Wired
23
U.S. Premises Wireless Revenue Forecast
24
Wireless Penetration /Wired Stations
25
Premises Wireless Technology Forecast
26
Average Prices by Technology
27
Cross-Elastic Estimate
28
Applications

• Retail
• Home Centers
• Department Stores
• Auto Dealers
• Sales, Service, Maintenance, Security
  Personnel

29
Healthcare

• Improves availability of healthcare
  professionals
• Enables nurses to receive doctors
  instructions in real-time
• Enhances patient care

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Premises Wireless Forecast Summary

• Demand for business communications increases
• Wireless is the new technology
• Standards more widespread
• Dual Network Systems
• Desktop Wireless Telephone
• Growth parallels cellular (slower pace)

31
Wireless Resources

• Wireless Mobility - Monthly For
  subscriptions FAX to
• [phone]. http// www.wirelessmag.com
• Wireless Week - Weekly Price in U.S. 59.
• Contact [phone] http//www.wirelessweek.co
  m
• RCR - Weekly newspaper for wireless industry
• [phone] http//www.rcrnews.com
• Global Wireless, international newspaper for
  wireless
• industry [phone]
• Advanced Cordless Communications - Global guide
  to digital
• cordless solutions [phone] http//
  www.telecoms.com
• newaves in personal communication - The official
  magazine
• of the Personal Communications Industry
  Association
• Send to 820 W. Jackson, Suite 450, Chicago, IL
  60607

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Coexistence and Access Etiquette in the United
States Unlicensed PCS BandDavid G. Steer -
IEEE Personal Communications, Fourth Quarter
94Mobile Radio An Overview Andy C. Ducar -
IEEE Communications Magazine, November
91Wireless Network Access For Personal
Communications Donald C. Cox -IEEE
Communications Magazine, December 92Wireless
Systems and Technologies An Overview - Chang,
Miska, Shober-ATT Technical Journal,
July/August 93TextbooksWireless
Communications - Principles and Practice -
Theodore S. Rapporport - Prentice Hall PTR, Upper
Saddle River, N.J. 07458. http//www.prenhall.com

Articles
33
Wireless Seminars

• Wireless Business Telephone Systems, Alexander
  Resources
• [phone] http//www.alexanderresources.com
  
• Telecommunications Research Associates (800)
  872-4736
• http//www.tra.com