Health Care and The 2008 Elections


1
Health Care and The 2008 Elections

• Celinda Lake

2
Key Points

• The 2008 election delivered a substantial mandate
  for real change. Barack Obamas central argument
  in the closing days of the campaign was that it
  was time to turn to the page on the last 8 years
  and try something new. The margin of victory
  underscores that the voters are ready for
  change.
• The results of the presidential and congressional
  elections completes the wave that started in
  2006. Four years ago voters wanted change but
  felt cross-pressured by the 9/11 dynamic. In
  2006 terrorism was not enough to offset weak job
  approval rating for President Bush and the
  Congress. And in 2007 voters completed their
  repudiation of conservative Republican ideas.
• Health care reform is a key element of the change
  that voters demand. Consistently over the past
  year and a half voters have expressed concern
  over rising costs and limited access and
  expressed an appetite for a larger government
  role.
• The economy dominated this election as a voting
  issue. All other issues took a back seat to the
  economic crisis. The health care issue was the
  top personal economic issue.
• The weak state of the economy presents a
  challenge to health care reform but also an
  opportunity. While many politicians will
  instinctively seek to pull back on spending
  health care is one of the key components of
  voters economic anxiety. Advocates need to
  drive this point home to policy makers.

3
The vast majority of voters are insured.
However some key constituencies viewed health
care as a voting issue.

• 90 of voters in 2008 had some members of their
  household covered 79 had everyone covered. Of
  those 79 were swing voters. Currently 91 of
  voters report having some sort of insurance
  coverage and 66 had coverage for every member
  of their families in the last 3 years.
• Core health care voters supporting progressive
  reforms include Democrats Democratic women and
  African-Americans.
  
• Older women and seniors are the most attentive
  voters on this issue. They need to be reassured
  that reforms will not adversely affect the
  quality of their health care.

SEIU/AHC polling by Lake Research Partners
November 2006.
LRP Poll for The Partnership to Fight Chronic
Disease. October 4-9 2008. 1500 Likely Voters
(795 Women).
4
The economy dominated this election. Obama won
by being the most trusted voice on the economy.
He also appealed to voters specifically concerned
about health care.
Source CNN 2008 Exit Polls. 17836 Interviews
5
Even after the collapse of Bear Stearns Lehman
Brothers and AIG health care was the top
personal economic concern in voters everyday
lives for both men and women.
Now Im going to read you some problems you and
your family may face. Please listen carefully
then tell me which ONE of these you personally
worry the most about Now from the same list
please tell me which ONE of these you personally
worry about second most
LRP Poll for The Partnership to Fight Chronic
Disease. October 4-9 2008. 1500 Likely Voters
(795 Women).
6
Leading up to the election eighty-two percent of
voters viewed health care as extremely or very
important to their vote for president.
(How important will each of the following issues
be to your vote for president (in
2008)...Extremely important very important
somewhat important not at all important)...Health
care
Source Fox News Poll. 10/20-21/2008. 1100
Registered Voters.
7
For the past year leading up to the election we
saw no lessening in the public appetite for
progressive reformeven if it meant raising taxes.

Do you favor or oppose providing access to
affordable quality health care for all Americans
even if it mean raising your taxes Do you feel
strongly or not strongly about that choice
Favor
Oppose
69
28
September 2007
64
February 2008
27
October 2008
31
64
Asked of half of sample.
8
Similarly voters have consistently been more
than willing to accept a strong federal
government role in making sure all Americans have
access to affordable quality health care.
Do you favor or oppose providing access to
affordable quality health care for all Americans
even if it mean a major role for the federal
government Do you feel strongly or not strongly
about that choice
Favor
Oppose
September 2007
66
28
February 2008
69
23
October 2008
30
64
9
The week before the election Obama had
established clear advantages on health care
jobs and the economy.
GWU Battleground Tracking. October 2326-29
2008.
10
Both Obama and McCain voters believe that
reducing the cost of health care is the top
priority for reform. However Obama voters are
much more likely to be concerned about access as
well.
Source Kaiser Family Foundation Poll. N1622
Registered Voters. 9/2008.
11
The fundamental disagreement between the two
camps comes in who is most responsible for making
sure that Americans have access to quality
affordable health care.
Who should have the most responsibility for
making sure Americans receive health insurance
coverage
Source Kaiser Family Foundation Poll. N1622
Registered Voters. 9/2008.
12
Two thirds of all voters were worried about
health care costs and these voters broke hard
for Obama.
Worried About Health Care (66)
Not Worried about Health Care (33)
Source CNN 2008 Exit Polls. 17836 Interviews
13
Health Care and The 2008 Elections

• Celinda Lake