Workforce Housing Background Briefing

1
Workforce HousingBackground Briefing
Governors Workforce Housing Taskforce
March 2, 2005
Maryland Department of Planning
2
Workforce Housing Background Briefing

• Maryland Housing Sales
• Housing Affordability Index
• Affordability for Select Occupations
• Issues Possible Affect on Migration
• Maryland and rest of U.S.

3
Number of Units Sold in Maryland,1995 - 2005
Source Maryland Association of Realtors from
Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.
(MRIS)
4
Mortgage Interest Rates, 1995 2005
Average annual interest rates from Fannie Maes
monthly interest rate survey- composite rate for
conventional loans. Data is for Maryland through
2004, national for 2005
5
Median Home Sales Price in Maryland,1995 - 2005
142 increase 102 since 2000
Source Maryland Association of Realtors from
Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.
(MRIS)
6
Annual Change in Median Sales Price in Maryland,
1995/1996 2004/2005
Source Maryland Association of Realtors from
Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.
(MRIS)
7
Annual Percent Change in Median Sales Price in
Maryland, 1995/1996 2004/2005
Source Maryland Association of Realtors from
Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.
(MRIS)
8
Share of Single-Family Homes by Sales Price in
Maryland, 2002-2005
2005 data through June 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, from MD
Property View Sales File
9
Residential Single Family Sales Above 300,000
(Median) 2002
By Census Tract
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
10
Residential Single Family Sales Above 300,000
(Median) 2005
By Census Tract
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
11
Median Sales Price for Marylands Jurisdictions,
2005
Source Maryland Association of Realtors from
Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.
(MRIS)
12
Change in Median Sales Price for Maryland,
2000-2005
Source Maryland Association of Realtors from
Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc.
(MRIS)
13
Change in Median Household Income for Maryland,
2000-2005
2005 is preliminary
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
14
Ratio of Change in Median Sales Price to Change
in Median Household Income for Maryland, 2000-2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
15
Workforce Housing Background Briefing

• Maryland Housing Sales
• Housing Affordability Index
• Affordability for Select Occupations
• Issues Possible Affect on Migration
• Maryland and rest of U.S.

16
Housing Affordability Index

• Ratio of median household income to the
  qualifying income necessary to buy a median price
  home
• Qualifying income is the necessary income to make
  monthly payments for a median priced home based
  on current mortgage interest rates

17
Housing Affordability Index

• Qualifying income is based on Federal National
  Mortgage Association qualifying ratio of 25.
• This means annual PI cannot exceed 25 percent of
  median household income

18
Housing Affordability Index

• Average annual mortgage interest rates are from
  Fannie Maes monthly interest rate survey using
  their composite rate for conventional loans.
• Annual data specifically compiled for Maryland is
  the effective interest rates (contract rate plus
  all fees and points)

19
Housing Affordability Index

• HAI for repeat home buyers assumes
• 20 percent down
• HAI for first-time home buyers assumes
• HH income is 57 of median income
• Home price is 85 of median sales price
• 5 percent down therefore mortgage rate increased
  .50 for PMI

20
Housing Affordability Index

• HAI 100 when the median income household has a
  sufficient income to purchase a median price home
• HAI 100 more than enough income
• HAI

21
Housing Affordability Index - Caveats

• Are using medians to represent the market but
  there is much variability
• Interest rates can vary depending on credit of
  buyer, also ignoring unconventional mortgages and
  VA and FHA loans
• Some buyers are willing/capable to put down more
  than standard down payments or pay a higher
  portion of their income
• these results are a good gage of what is
  happening over time across jurisdictions using
  standard and consistent factors

22
Housing Affordability Index for Repeat Home
Buyers for Maryland
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
23
HAI Repeat Buyers - 2000
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
24
HAI Repeat Buyers - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
25
(No Transcript)
26
(No Transcript)
27
Pct. Change in HAI, Repeat Buyers, 2000-2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
28
(No Transcript)
29
HAI for Repeat and First-Time Home Buyers for
Maryland
Repeat
First-Time
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
30
HAI First-Time Buyers - 2000
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
31
HAI First-Time Buyers - 2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
32
(No Transcript)
33
(No Transcript)
34
Pct. Change in HAI, FT Buyers, 2000-2005
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
35
(No Transcript)
36
Workforce Housing Background Briefing

• Maryland Housing Sales
• Housing Affordability Index
• Affordability for Select Occupations
• Issues Possible Affect on Migration
• Maryland and rest of U.S.

37
HAI for First-Time Homebuyers bySelected
Occupation- 2005
Registered Nurse (66,800)
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
38
HAI for First-Time Homebuyers bySelected
Occupation- 2005
Police/Sheriff (45,150)
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
39
HAI for First-Time Homebuyers bySelected
Occupation- 2005
Middle School Teacher (44,725)
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
40
HAI for First-Time Homebuyers bySelected
Occupation- 2005
Carpenter (36,075)
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
41
HAI for First-Time Homebuyers bySelected
Occupation- 2005
Nursing Aid (25,150)
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services
42
Workforce Housing Background Briefing

• Maryland Housing Sales
• Housing Affordability Index
• Affordability for Select Occupations
• Issues Possible Affect on Migration
• Maryland and rest of U.S.

43
Net Migration Between Baltimore County and
Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2004
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
44
Net Migration Between Carroll County and
Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2004
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
45
Net Migration Between Frederick County and
Pennsylvania, 2000 - 2004
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
46
Net Migration Between Frederick County and
Washington County, 2000 - 2004
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
47
Net Migration Between Montgomery County and
Frederick County, 2000 - 2004
Source Maryland Department of Planning, Planning
Data Services, from IRS County-to-County
Migration data
48
Workforce Housing Background Briefing

• Maryland Housing Sales
• Housing Affordability Index
• Affordability for Select Occupations
• Issues Possible Affect on Migration
• Maryland and rest of U.S.

49
Median Housing Value 2004
Maryland ranked 10th
Source U.S. Census Bureau, American Community
Survey
50
Median Housing Value 2004 (cont.)
Source U.S. Census Bureau, American Community
Survey
51
Median Household Income - 2004
Maryland ranked 3rd
Source U.S. Census Bureau, American Community
Survey
52
Median Household Income 2004 (cont)
Source American Community Survey
53
Pct of Owners Paying More Than 30 of Income for
Housing Costs - 2004
Source U.S. Census Bureau, American Community
Survey
54
Pct of Owners Paying More Than 30 of Income for
Housing Costs 2004 (cont.)
Maryland ranked 33rd
55
Median Price of Single-Family Homes by
State-2004 (thousands of dollars)
Maryland ranked 6th
Source FannieMae
56
Median Price of Single-Family Homesby
State-2004, cont. (thousands of dollars)
Source Fannie Mae
57
Change in Median Price of Single-Family Homes by
State 2000-2004 (thousands of dollars)
Maryland ranked 12th
Source FannieMae
58
Change in Median Price of Single-Family Homes by
State 2000-2004 (thousands of dollars)
Source FannieMae
59
Pct Change in Median Price of Single Family Homes
by State 2000-2004
Maryland ranked 17th
Source FannieMae
60
Pct Change in Median Price of Single Family Homes
by State 2000-2004 (cont)
Source FannieMae
61
Average Square Feet of Floor Area in New
One-Family House, Northeast U.S., 1973-2004
Change 948 sq ft (59.4)
Source U.S. Census Bureau
62
Average Household Size in the U.S. 1970-2003
Change 3.11 to 2.59
Source U.S. Census Bureau
63
Some Summary Points

• Affordability has declined throughout this decade
  in Maryland and does vary significantly by
  location within the State
• Affordability is much more of an issue for
  first-time home buyers
• Affordability issues are most likely influencing
  migration patterns

64
Some Summary Points

• Maryland is a high income and high home-value
  state
• Its increase in median sales values this decade
  is in line with the rest of the Northeast
• Indications are that the proportion of income
  spent on housing in Maryland is not out of line
  with much of the rest of the U.S.