UNDERSTANDING THE PUBLIC

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UNDERSTANDING THE PUBLIC
Americans Who Are We And What Do We Stand For?
Region 4 Public Use/Outreach Workshop, June
19-22, 2000
Ken Cordell USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA
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1960 Flower Children, The Beatles VW Camper
Vans, Vietnam, Kennedy, Family Vacations, Chevy
Impala V8
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Demographic Percentages 1960 and 2000
1960 2000
Residence in MSA 60.5 80.2 Over 1
million 26.1 21.4 Under 1 million
34.5 58.8 Not in MSA 39.5 19.8
Race White 89.5 82.9 Non-White 10.5 17.1
Age Male Female Male Female All 47.9
52.1 48.4 51.6 12-17 7.3 7.0
5.3 5.0 18-24 5.3 6.2 5.9
5.7 25-44 16.6 18.1 17.9
18.2 45-64 13.4 14.3 13.0 13.8
65 5.3 6.5 6.3 8.9
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(Continued) Demographic Percentages 1960 and 2000
1960 2000
Family Income (1998) (Note 45.54 million U.S.
families in 1960. 71.55 million families in
1998.) Percentiles 20th 14,093
21,600 40th 24,298 37,692
60th 32,215 56,020 80th
44,547 83,693 95th 68,521
145,199
Educational Attainment, Age 25 and Over 8th
grade or less 37.5 7.4 9-11th
grade 18.5 9.7 High school
graduate 27.1 33.8 Some college
9.1 24.7 College degree or higher 7.7 24.4
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Southern Demographic Percentages 1960 and 2000
1960 2000
Residence in MSA 43.8 73.9 Over 1
million 6.7 12.3 Under 1 million
37.2 61.6 Not in MSA 56.2 26.1
Race White 79.8 79.0 Non-White 20.1 21.0
Age Male Female Male Female All 49.0
51.0 48.1 51.9 12-17 7.8 6.4
5.3 5.0 18-24 6.0 6.9 5.9
5.7 25-44 16.1 18.4 17.6
18.0 45-64 13.7 13.7 13.0 14.1
65 5.4 5.6 6.3 9.0
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Projected Population Age 65 Over, 2000 2020
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Future distribution of Projected Change in
Population Age 65 Over, 2000-2020
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County Population Change by Region, 1980-90
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Top 5 Metropolitan Choices by Ethnicity, 1990-1996
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Projected Retirement Destination Counties within
Top 20 of Counties Increasing in Population over
Age 65
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The Geography of Projected Change in U.S.
Population, 2000-2020
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Rates of Conversion from Rural to Urban and
Built-up Acreage, 1987-1997
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Demographic Factors

• Major factor in population growth and
  lifestyles
• By 2050, 80 million post-1990 immigrants.
• Mostly living in Southern and Pacific Coastal
  Regions.

Immigration

• By 2020, median age up 8.5 percent
• Many more of retirement age with increased
  purchasing power.
• Larger increases in Mid-South, southwest, Great
  Plains, and Great Lake States.

Age

• Whites from 76 percent to just over 50 percent
  by 2050.
• Hispanics up from 9 percent to 21 percent.
• Asians from 4 percent to 11 percent.

Racial Diversity
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Distribution of Projected U.S. Asians and Others
Population, 2020
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Distribution of Projected U.S. African-American
Population, 2020
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Distribution of Projected U.S. Hispanic
Population, 2020
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The Changing American Society

• About 1 million new immigrants per year
• More people 1990 248 mm
• 2000 275 mm
• 2020 325 mm
• 2050 404 mm
• 2075 481 mm
• 2100 571 mm
• Getting older Median age 35?38 (by 2020)
• Changing ethnicities by 2050
• Anglo Americans 76?50
• African Americans 12 ?15
• Hispanic Americans 9 ?21
• Asian Americans 4 ?11

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Nature Lovers
Well-off, highly-educated, older, mostly white
females in small households with no kids and who
like to
Picnic Visit Nature Centers Walk Sightsee And Watc
h Wildlife and Birds
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Outdoor Avids
Middle-aged, white, more male than female,
college educated, high-incomed 2-person
householders with no kids, and who like to
Participate in family activities Attend
sports Visit historic or nature sites Camp, hunt,
and fish Motorboat and go to the beach Watch
wildlife and birds
They dont play sports or snow activities.
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Fastest Growing One-Half
Recent Trends (Millions of Participants, 16 and
Older)
Percent Number Number Number Change Activity
in 1983 in 1995 in 2000 (83-2000) Bird
Watching 21.2 54.1 77.2 264.2 Backpacking
8.8 15.2 27.9 217.1 Hiking 24.7 47.8
69.8 182.6 Snowmobiling 5.3 7.1
10.7 101.8 Walking 93.6 133.7 172.3
84.1 Downhill Skiing 10.6 16.8 19.3
82.1 Off-Road Driving 19.4 27.9 35.0
80.4 Swimming/river, lake, or ocean 56.5
78.1 94.8 67.8 Cross-country Skiing 5.3
6.5 8.8 66.0 Boating (overall) 49.5
58.1 76.7 54.9 Bicycling 56.5 57.4
86.2 52.6
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The Rest of the Story
Recent Trends (Millions of Participants, 16 and
Older)
Percent Number Number Number Change Activity
in 1983 in 1995 in 2000 (83-2000) Camping
Primitive Area 17.7 28.0 25.8 45.8 Horseback
Riding 15.9 14.3 23.1 45.3 Motorboating 33.
6 47.0 48.2 43.5 Picnicking 84.8 98.3
118.3 39.5 Camping - Developed Area 30.0 41.5
41.3 37.7 Sightseeing 81.3 113.4
108.6 33.6 Fishing 60.1 57.8
67.9 12.9 Sailing 10.6 9.6 10.9
2.8 Water Skiing 15.9 17.9 15.7 -
1.3 Hunting 21.2 18.6 20.9 - 1.4
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Spending on the Environment
Too Much 7
Too Little 49
About Right 28
(Dont Know) (15)
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Percentage of Americans Reporting Regulation of
Natural Resources is Just the Right Amount
or has Not Gone Far Enough.
Source Dujack, 1997.
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WHAT DO AMERICANS THINK ABOUT PUBLIC LANDS?
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Objectives for Managing Public Lands (Percent
saying important to very important)
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Source Haas, 1998.
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AMERICANS VIEWS ON PROTECTION OF PUBLIC
LANDSDO WE NEED/WANT WILDERNESS?
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TOP 5 VALUES

• Protecting air quality
• Protecting water quality
• Protecting wildlife habitat
• Protecting TE species
• Legacy for future generations
• (By Majority Vote)

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Lowest 4 Values

• Providing recreation opportunities
• Providing spiritual inspiration
• Using areas for scientific study
• Stimulate income for tourism industry
• (All Ballots Counted)

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Comparing Importance of Public Land Objectives
between Urbans and Rurals (Percentage saying
Important/Very Important)
Percentages Public Land Objective Rural
Suburban Urban
Conserving/protecting sources of water 90
89 93
Protecting ecosystems/habitats 81 83 89
Developing trail systems for non-motorized
recreation 51 47 61
Designating more Wilderness areas 47 56
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Increasing acres in public land 44 50 58
Expanding commercial recreation 29 31 27
Expanding access for motorized vehicles
20 20 20
Developing paved roads for cars 19 24 18
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COMPARING IMPORTANCE OF PUBLIC LAND OBJECTIVES
BETWEEN ETHNIC GROUPS (Percentage saying
Important/Very Important)
Conserving/ Protecting sources of water
Designating more wilderness areas
Trail systems for non-motorized recreation
Expanding access for motorized vehicles
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Some Regional Differences ( saying
important/very important)

• Expanding access for motorized vehicles
• Rocky Mtn. 31 South 19
• Trail systems for non-motorized recreation
• Pacific Coast 41 Rocky Mtn. 51
• Designate more wilderness areas
• North 60 Great Plains 50
• Expanding commercial recreation
• Rocky Mtn. 21 South 31
• overall, few differences between regions

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U.S. Population Density by 2020
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Counties with Wildlife Habitat
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Future Wildlife Habitat Hotspots (2020) Ambient
Population Pressures on Counties with Wildlife
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Future Forest Hotspots (2020) in the
South Ambient Population Pressures on Counties
with Forests
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Future Forest Hotspots (2020) in the Southern
Appalachians Ambient Population Pressures on
Counties with Forests
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In Conclusion
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Southern Demographic Percentages 1960 and 2000
1960 2000
Residence in MSA 43.8 73.9 Over 1
million 6.7 12.3 Under 1 million
37.2 61.6 Not in MSA 56.2 26.1
Race White 79.8 79.0 Non-White 20.1 21.0
Age Male Female Male Female All 49.0
51.0 48.1 51.9 12-17 7.8 6.4
5.3 5.0 18-24 6.0 6.9 5.9
5.7 25-44 16.1 18.4 17.6
18.0 45-64 13.7 13.7 13.0 14.1
65 5.4 5.6 6.3 9.0
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The Changing American Society

• About 1 million new immigrants per year
• More people 1990 248 mm
• 2000 275 mm
• 2020 325 mm
• 2050 404 mm
• 2075 481 mm
• 2100 571 mm
• Getting older Median age 35?38 (by 2020)
• Changing ethnicities by 2050
• Anglo Americans 76?50
• African Americans 12 ?15
• Hispanic Americans 9 ?21
• Asian Americans 4 ?11

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TOP 5 VALUES

• Protecting air quality
• Protecting water quality
• Protecting wildlife habitat
• Protecting TE species
• Legacy for future generations
• (By Majority Vote)

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UNDERSTANDING THE PUBLIC
Americans Who Are We And What Do We Stand For?
Region 4 Public Use/Outreach Workshop, June
19-22, 2000
Ken Cordell USDA Forest Service, Athens, GA