Space Weather Impacts

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Space Weather Impacts

• NOAAs mission relates to space weather
• describe and predict changes in the Earth's
  environment
  
• protect life and property and enhance the
  economy
  

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Society Needs Space Weather Services
Terrestrial Effects
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The Space Weather Team
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SEC Operations Oct.-Nov. 2003

• House Science Subcommittee hearing Oct. 30, 2003

It is clear from today's hearing...the services
that NOAA...provides are unique and vital to our
nation and its citizens every day, much more so
than people realize. Subcommittee Chairman Ver
non J. Ehlers (R-MI)

• Positive customer feedback

Continental Airlines wants you to know how
appreciative we are important component of our
decision making process should be a model for
other agencies when it comes to working together
with industry. Continental Airlines, November
5, 2003

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Space Environment Center transferred to NWS in
January 2005 because

• Science is maturing
• SEC activities are strongly operational
• 24 x 7 staffed operations center
• Note House and Senate marks appear to give SEC
  full funding (Pres Bud request) for FY06

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Space Environment Center Transfer to NWS

• SEC has been placed within National Weather
  Service as one of the National Centers for
  Environmental Prediction
  
• NWS is an established and recognized operational
  agency

NWS is well-managed and results-oriented.
Office of Management and Budget
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National Centers for Environmental Protection
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NOAAs End-to-End Process
Process Data
Acquire Data
Serve Customers (I)
Satellite and Ground Observations
Received at SEC and from NOAA
Data Ingest Data Processing Data Storage and Acc
ess
Archive data
Product Preparation Product Dissemination
Serve Customers (II)
GOES
NASA
POES
NASA
SEC plays a central role in all government e
fforts in Space
Weather
Product verification RD to improve forecasts Te
chnique development Environ. Lit., Outreach, Edu.

Customer Feedback
Plan Future Developments
Secure New Data
Data Requirements Space Weather Sensor Requiremen
ts
Contract sensor development Work with NESDIS for
bus and launch
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NOAAs Satellite Programs

• Mainstay of Weather Space Weather Forecasting
• Pivotal for disaster planning and response
• Forecasts in support of general aviation,
  agriculture, and maritime activities

GOES

• Launch by 2013
• Provide users with 100 times the data
• Does not (yet) have a coronagraph, though it is
  the highest priority requirement not in the
  manifest

GOES-R
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NOAAs Satellite Programs

• Essential for El Niño Climate
• Cover Arctic Antarctic

POES

• Tri-agency Effort
• Improved Long-Range Weather Climate Forecasts
• Increased Timeliness and Accuracy
• Provides Users 285 times the data
• 13 of 55 EDRs are for space wx

NPOESS
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NOAAs Satellite Programsdo NOT (yet) include a
solar wind monitor, but

• In partnership with NASA and the NPOESS
  Tri-agency IPO, NOAA has issued a Broad Area
  Announcement (BAA) requesting expressions of
  interest from potential for-profit providers of
  solar wind data
• The provider would sell data to NOAA (and
  others?) and provide other services on the
  spacecraft (e.g., South Pole comm for NSF)
  
• Possible solar sail mission

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Space Weather Skill

• Grown dramatically, principally due to new
  observations (SOHO, ACE, especially GPS)
  
• Operational models are still primitive the first
  physics-based numerical model is yet to be
  deployed
  
• NASA, NSF, and DOD have invested in numerical
  models which NOAA cant afford to implement
  
• The 7-agency, decade-old National Space Weather
  Program (NSWP) has been wonderfully successful

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Outline

• FCMSSR presentation
• NOAA and space weather
• Thoughts on the future of the NSWP

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Components are still good
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Observations to Advance Space Weather Services
Highlights

• Upstream solar wind monitor delivering data in
  realtime
  
• A coronagraph to see CMEs headed Earthward
• Two-frequency, incl. limb occultation, GPS
  measurements in near realtime from as many
  platforms as possible
  
• Coronal magnetic field measurements
• Timely data from sensors flown for research
  purposes

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Models to Advance Space Weather Services

• Models to provide gridded output vice one global
  index number (need multiple data sources to
  drive) to make regional forecasts possible
  
• Data assimilation into MHD and other models,
  similar to meteorologists data assimilation
  
• A model framework similar to the ESMF now
  coming into existence for the meteorologists
  
• Transitioning models into operations is expensive
  and is inadequately funded at present. The first
  physics-based model is yet to be deployed
  operationally, despite the CCMCs good work

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Research to Advance Space Weather Services
Examples

• Understanding fine structure in coronal mass
  ejections at 1 AU, for credibility of the data
  driving geomagnetic storm models
  
• What can helioseismology tell us about magnetic
  fields? One day before emergence and years in
  advance?
  
• Understanding flare, CME, and energetic particle
  precursors and mechanisms, to increase lead time

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Space Weather Helping Weather and Climate Needs

• How do disturbances propagate downward from
  thermosphere and what is there effect in the
  troposphere?
  
• Solar cycle effects on climate change?

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Need for End to End Planning(perhaps easier with
new Congressional Approp Comms)

• No up front planning to transition sensors from
  NASA to NOAA, if successful (TRMM, ACE,
  coronagraph)
  
• No joint planning of payloads that might be
  joint use (e.g., no coronagraph on SDO)
  
• NOAA rewards excess capability in its operational
  satellite contracts, but the contractors costs
  make it prohibitively expensive to use this
  capability for research or prototype sensors
• Fragmented planning for transition of research
  models into operations
  
• NASA does take into account the usefulness of its
  data when considering termination of one of its
  spacecraft
  
• A Joint Working Group chaired by NASAs Mary
  Cleave and NOAAs ? (was DAA Colleen Hartman) is
  being set up