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Foreign Policy Analysis

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Title: Foreign Policy Analysis


1
Foreign Policy Analysis
  • University of Helsinki, Department of Political
    Science, Fall 2003
  • Christer Pursiainen
  • For downloading the Power Point presentation, go
    to
  • www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
  • ? teaching

2
Contents
  • Foreign Policy Analysis and IR
  • First models
  • A rational state
  • or a bureaucratic policy model
  • or an organisational model?
  • The role of cognitive factors
  • Foreign policy change
  • Discourses and storylines

3
1. Foreign Policy Analysis and IR
  • Economics Strategy History
    Philosophy International Law
  • Thucydides Aquinas
  • 16th
  • 17th Machiavelli Grotius
  • 18th Smith
  • 19th Marx Clausewitz
    Rousseau Kant
  • 20th Imperialism theories History
    of Diplomacy
  • Geography Geopolitics
  • WWI The birth of the discipline
  • 1920-30s IDEALISM
  • WWII REALISM Traditionalism
    First Debate
  • 1950s Functionalism
  • Natural sciences SCIENTISM FPA

    Second Debate
  • 1960s Peace research
    Realism revisited Third
    Debate
  • 1970s Dependency (Marxism) NEOREALISM LIBERALISM
  • 1980s Critical theory
    Rationalism
    INSTITUTIONALISM
  • Humanities Feminism Fourth debate
  • 1990s Postmodernism CONSTRUCTIVISM
  • 2000s Postructuralism Developed Game theory
    Fifth Debate?

4
1. Foreign Policy Analysis and IR
  • which actor or agent?
  • which action principle?
  • object of explanation?
  • structure of explanation?

5
2. First models
Snyder et al. 1954
External setting
Internal setting
Decision-making process
Social structure and behavior
Action
6
2. First models
Brecher et al. 1968
Operational environment
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Communications
Decision-making elite
Psychological environment attitudional
prism elite images
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Formulation of foreign policy decisions by issue
areas
Decision implementation
7
3. A rational state?
  • giving preference to a better alternative of
    those available when trying to fulfil desires and
    objectives
  • rational choice theory shows us what to do to
    achieve our goals, but it does not tell what we
    want to achieve

8
3. A rational state?
  • in parametrical choices an actor is under
    external limitations that are mostly given or
    parametrical
  • the task of an actor is to assess these
    restrictions and then decide what to do
  • in strategic choice situations there is a mutual
    dependency of a decision
  • these situations are studied with game theory,
    that is, with a game of two or n-players

9
3. A rational state?
Prisoners dilemma
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
1,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,1
2,2
non-cooperation
10
3. A rational state?
Chicken
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
2,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,2
1,1
non-cooperation
11
3. A rational state?
x chooses (between negotiations or a violent
solution/threat)
y chooses
x chooses
alternative outcomes and their utility
functions for x and y
nego
cap
war
cap
war
12
3. A rational state?
Allisons three models 1971
Black box
13
4. or the bureaucratic policy model?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Black box
14
5. or the organisational model?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Leaders
Black box
15
6. The role of cognitive factors?
  • a human beings ability to process information
  • for some reason a person almost always neglects
    some of the alternatives, or refuses to perceive
    given information
  • the facts do not say or tell anything by
    themselves

16
6. The role of cognitive factors?
  • an actor must choose them, put in order and
    classify them, to give them meaning, and then act
    on the basis of knowledge thus accumulated
  • adopted attitudes or belief systems can make
    decision-makers to close their mind to
    controversial information

17
6. The role of cognitive factors?
  • faced with critical information a person is
    inclined to misunderstand it, to deny it or leave
    it totally unnoticed
  • all information is interpreted whenever possible
    so that it supports existing beliefs
  • when a change is necessary, the first way out is
    chosen
  • post factum rationalisation

18
6. The role of cognitive factors?
  • groupthink
  • an urge to agree is greater than the urge to find
    the best possible solution
  • after the decision, the risk of breaking the
    consensus appears greater than the risk of faulty
    decision
  • strict boundaries to outsiders and opponents

19
6. The role of cognitive factors?
  • crisis decision-making
  • a threat to essential goals
  • time pressure
  • a lot of unpredictable factors

20
6. The role of cognitive factors?
  • number of misjudgements and miscalculations
    increase
  • aggressive inclinations more frequent
  • consideration of relevant facts more selective

21
6. The role of cognitive factors?
  • the ability to abstract from details weakens
  • more difficult to tolerate complexity
  • the difference between irrelevant and essential
    disappears

22
7. Foreign policy change?
  • early studies on foreign policy adaption or
    cybernetics
  • a new interest from the early 1980s onward
  • increased focus after the end of the Cold War

23
7. Foreign policy change?
  • Hermann 1990
  • Degrees of foreign policy change
  • revision of policy (quantitative)
  • programmatic change (qualitative)
  • redefining the problem
  • reorientation of foreign policy
  • sources leader driven bureaucratic advocacy
    domestic restructuring external shock

24
7. Foreign policy change?
Holsti 1992
  • Independent variables
  • external factors
  • domestic factors
  • historical and cultural factors
  • Intervening variables
  • policy-makers perceptions and calculations
  • policy-making process
  • personality factors
  • elite attitudes towards external actors
  • Dependent variables
  • intent to restructure foreign policy

25
7. Foreign policy change?
Goldmann 1988
policy-making system
conditions
composition
policies
ideas, learning
power-balance
residual factors
stabilizers
26
7. Foreign policy change?
  • organisational and inividual learning
  • feedback reactions
  • adaptive reactions (new circumstances)
  • simple vs. complex learning

27
7. Foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure
Conditions
Institutional settings
Agency
foreign policy action
Values
Choice
Perceptions
Preferences
28
7. Foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure II
Structure I
Agency
Agency
action I
action II
29
8. Discourses and storylines
Ó Tuathail
Foreign Policy Process
Story-Line Construction
Cultural storehouse
Deliberative Public Arena
Media representations
30
Foreign Policy Analysis
  • University of Helsinki, Department of Political
    Science, Fall 2003
  • Christer Pursiainen
  • For downloading the Power Point presentation, go
    to
  • www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
  • ? teaching
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