Access for Low SES Students

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Access for Low SES Students

• Presented to Advisory Committee on Student
  Financial Assistance
• By
• John Lee, JBL Associates

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What is the Problem?

• Low-income students do not have enough money to
  attend college
• Tuition has increased faster than income
• Grant assistance has not kept up
• The increase in the college age population and
  inflation over the next decade will require
  significant increases in support of low-income
  students

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Who Qualifies for College

• First estimate is for high school students who
  took at least algebra 2 and received a diploma
  (no GED or certificates of completion)
• Taking college level math is a good predictor of
  success in college
• This defined qualifying high school graduates

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What Does This Mean?

• 45 of the qualified students from the lowest SES
  quartile enrolled in college
• 84 of the qualified students from the highest
  quartile enrolled in college
• Enrollment in 4-year colleges accounts for most
  of the difference
• 140,606 qualified low SES students did not go to
  college and 193,038 did not go to a 4-year college

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Tougher Academic Criteria

• Represents characteristics of 4-year college
  students
• Rank in high school 54
• Academic GPA 2.7
• Combined SAT/ACT 820/19
• NELS math and reading 56

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What Does This Mean?

• 161,195 low SES students qualify using these
  criteria and 81,150 attended college, this is
  half of those eligible
• 87 of the highest SES students enrolled in
  college
• Compared with the less rigorous criteria, a
  greater percentage enrolled in a 4-year college

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Projections to 2010

• 2.82 million students finished high school in
  2000
• 3.115 are expected to finish in 2010
• Increase of 295,000 new graduates or 10 over the
  decade
• Peak comes in 2008 and starts to decline
• NCES projects 20 increase in college enrollment
  by 2010

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Projection of Pell Grants to 2010 (4-Year)
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Projection of Pell Grants to 2010 (2-Year)
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Projected Pell Shortfall by 2010(4 and 2-year
only)
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The Value of the Maximum Pell Grant as a
Percentage of College Costs has Shrunk

• From a 1975 high of 78 percent of the cost of a
  four-year public institution to 39 percent in
  1999
• From 39 percent of the cost of a four-year
  private institution to 15 percent in 1999

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Increasing Income Inequality
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Payoff to College is Increasing

• In 1972 a college graduate made 1.43 times as
  much as a high school graduate
• By 1992 the difference was 1.82

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Conclusions

• Enrollment in 4-year colleges accounts for most
  of the difference between SES groups
• 2/3rds of the highest SES group enrolled in a
  4-year college compared with one-quarter of the
  lowest SES students
• These inequalities will not change without a
  significant commitment of public funds

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Conclusions

• If a state increases tuition, a share should be
  set aside for aid to low-income students
• Federal grant aid for low-income students must
  keep up with inflation and increases in
  enrollment
• Student aid for low-income students must increase
  from present levels