TREND ANALYSIS ASSIGNMENT

1
TREND ANALYSISASSIGNMENT

• EngC 1011H
• COREY/SPOHN

2
For most people, the terms "trend" and "fad are
used interchangeably.

• When the media tell us "what's hot" they label
  them as trends.
• Someone who wears the latest fashions or has
  obscure new music on their iPod is called
  "trendy."

3
This could be just a discussion of semantics, but
perhaps there is a difference.For that, we need
look no further than sociologist Dr. Dre on
"Encore," the title song from an Eminem album
4
I'm a trend I set one every time I'm in/ I go
out and just come back full circle again/You a
fad. That means you something that we already
had/ But once you're gone, you don't come back/
Too bad--you're off the map now radar can't even
find you.
5
In other words, fads are short-term fanaticisms
a blip in culture time whereby it seems the whole
world is joined in the same craze. Exciting and
electric as they are, they burn out fast.
6
A fad is a fast and furious practice, product, or
interest, fueled by tremendous hype and followed
by a deep decline. Usually isolated to a few
market segments, or particular demographic
groups, fads are self-contained, short-lived
phenomena.
7
Witness the short-lived era of the Trucker Hat
(2001-2003, depending on whom you ask). Or
Rubik's Cubes, virtual reality, grunge, day
traders, and countless others.
8
As Dre points out, fads are generally not missed
once they are gone. We want fad amnesia, to
forget them and bury them away. . . at least
until the next generation revives them as retro
goofs. That's because they stand for a certain
point in time that we have moved past.
9
Trends, though, may represent long-term changes
or movements that are substantial to society.
They become part of our DNA, even though they may
begin with just a few people, the trendsetters.
10
A trend is a slower, steadier development. Trends
are characterized by new ways of doing business,
new lifestyle practices, the changing needs of
customers and new products or services that
render older ones obsolete.
11
While trends dont usually generate as much
enthusiasm as fads and take longer to develop,
they are longer lasting and far more widespread.
Instead of plummeting to their demise, many
trends evolve into permanent shifts in the ways
we live, work, and interact with others.
12
Many types of trends exist, including industry,
economic, societal, cultural, demographic, and
technological.
13
What youre looking for . . .

• Some service, product, behavior, or value that
  extends in one direction, follows a course that
  is traceable over time.
• A line of movement that shows a prevailing
  inclination, a statistically detectable change.
• A shift or veer in a new direction that is more
  than a current style or preference.

14
Fads span several categories as well, most
notably, entertainment, fashion and lifestyle.
15
Both trends and fads begin on the fringe and move
toward the center (the mainstream), but fads fall
away, while trends continue to penetrate larger
groups with lasting effects.
16
Uncovering the epiphany - Fads create a frenzy
and fade trends spur a transformation in our
culture. More fascinating still, many fads are
the byproducts of larger, looming trends.
17
Take the portable music trend spurred by the
eighties boom box, which then evolved into the
nineties walkman and matriculated into the
millennium with the iPod.
18
While the hardware has been replaced with devices
that are more popular and portable, this trend
has rocked steady for decades (and may already be
classified as a permanent shift).
19
Trendsetters get the ball rolling, like the first
geeks who began file sharing on the Internet in
the mid-nineties. They led to the digitalization
of music, which has built new industries and
changed the way most of us consume music.
20
Or JFK, a trendsetter in many ways, who was
credited with influencing men in the early
sixties to go hatless. Since then, practically no
one outside of a costume party, swing band or
mafia film wears a Fedora.
21
Trends have staying power. No matter how long
since their initial popularity, they still matter.
22
Take hip-hop music

• It could have been labeled an early eighties fad
  given its centrality on the streets of NYC.
• Now it's at the foundation of our popular
  culture.
• From Billboard and Total Request Live to ad
  jingles, with the look and fashion adorned by
  most every mallrat in Iowa.
• Hip-hop and urbanization of culture was a trend
  that took hold over the last twenty years.

23
Real trends have depth. Something causes their
popularity and acceptance. In the example above,
hip-hop must have fused itself to our culture for
a reason.
24
Understanding that is the job of sociologists,
trendwatchers, market researchers and other
professionals who are sought to analyze society
and forecast the trends that will change the game.
25
Their trend reports need to be more than lists of
what's in at the moment. That is only spotting
trends or fads
26
Real trendwatchers . . .

• Use analysis to understand what is behind the
  fad.
• Examine why the trend is here.
• Prognosticate what its prospects are for
  trend-hood.
• Are wary of the latest hype and media spin, which
  often portray minor movements as national
  sensations.

27
Some tips to help YOU be a trend-watcher . . .
28
First, prove the trend exists.
29
Second, determine what's driving the trends
development.
30
Trends are fueled by myriad strategic factorsa
confluence of eventsthat culminate and fortify
one another to produce fertile ground for the
trends to take hold.
31
Such drivers include technological innovations
government regulations and deregulations
economic developments demographic shifts
lifestyle changes and new values, attitudes, and
preferences.
32
Assess its overall appeal, the trends
abilityand mobilityto achieve mainstream
status. Gauge if it's easily adopted by various
demographic groups and widespread market
segments.
33
It took producing a mid-market SUV before this
automotive category was declared a trend. The
same goes for the home computer in the seventies
computers were far too clunky, and much too
costly, to achieve mainstream adoption.
34
Equally important is availability is the
product readily available to the mainstream?
35
Make a convincing case for a particular cause (s)
36
Identify the trends level of influence Is it
an incident isolated to one or two market
segments or is it broadly based? How readily
does it replicate across market segments and
societies?
37
Remember, fads fade and tend not to replicate,
but trends transcend such barriers and manifest
themselves through an array of related tendencies
and cultures. Chart the trend's connections to
other categories, cultures, and consumer
segments.
38
Track the trends progression. Is it
progressing or regressing? Trends steadily
progress and build momentum over time.
39
Take hip-hop, a two-prong trend encompassing
entertainment and lifestyle preferences. While in
its hey-day for the mainstream, rap actually made
its way onto the music scene in the eighties. Had
hip-hop been a fad, it would have come and gone
(and come and gone again) during the last two
decades.
40
Instead, hip-hop has proven itself as a highly
profitable business of music, movies, apparel and
accessories (bling!). And rap music has
established itself as a respectable genre in its
own right (arguably a permanent shift for the
music industry).
41
In order to effectively analyze a trend, as
opposed to simply reporting on a trend, you must
consider the effects of the trend on the culture.
42
If applicable, suggest possible solutions for the
trend.
43
An area that doesn't receive nearly the coverage
it should is the countertrend.
44
Simply put, each trend is matched by a prevailing
countertrend.
45
Look at the growing obsession with organic foods
and the rising levels of obesity. Sure, people
are trying to trim down with healthier diets, but
processed food revenues are growing at equally
compelling rates.
46
Music and fashion thrive on counter-trending
(though it could also be called
counter-fadding).
47
Look at Avril Lavigne poised as the anti-Britney,
or Ashlee Simpson, primed as the antithesis of
her songstress sister Jessica.
48
For most trends, an opposite countertrend
exists.If you feel as though you have no unique
insights to offer on a trend, hunt for a
counter-trend!
49
Trend-spotting isn't just for entrepreneurs
looking to start new companies or for marketing
cutting-edge products.
50
Consider the growing cultural emphasis on
well-being. Take apart that trend, says Mary
Meehan of Iconoculture, and you'll see several
minitrends

• the yearning for mental and physical health
• a desire for greater balance in one's life
• a revitalized interest in hearth and home
• a new focus on spirituality

51
The response

• Grocery stores are stocking natural and organic
  foods, medicinal herbs, and nontoxic cleaning
  supplies.
• Some insurance companies have expanded to cover
  alternative medicine.
• Hardware stores are carrying air and water
  purifiers, nontoxic paints, and test kits for
  detecting contaminants such as lead.

52
How do you start?

• Valuable information is everywhere you look.
• Read magazines, newspapers, and web articles and
  watch TV news shows to spot recurring themes.
• Scan Web sites, forums, and chat rooms. File away
  information for future reference.
• Examine whether the fads around you add up to the
  deeper, wider trends.
• Recognize that the obvious often isn't so
  obvious. You may see something in front of you,
  but when you analyze it, you see it's really
  something else. How many people go out and jog
  for an hour, then go home and eat a pint of ice
  cream? That's fitness and fatness in the same
  person.

53
Big deal or big dud?
54
(No Transcript)
55
(No Transcript)
56
Some times its tough to tell a fad from a trend

• TONGUE-SPLITTING
• Hard to find qualified practitioner
• Involves surgery
• Long-term recovery
• Tough to reverse
• Difficult for employment
• Scary looking!

• BODY PIERCING
• Done at many malls
• Quick and relatively painless
• Recovery involves cotton balls and peroxide
• Holes close if not used
• Mainstream appeal

57
Research and analyze a current cultural trend

• A.  Prove the trend exists
• B.  Analyze causes of the trend
• C.  Make a convincing case for a particular
• cause(s)
• D.  Refute counter causal arguments
• E.  Consider the effects of the trend on the
• culture
• F. Consider solutions (if appropriate)

58
Research

• A.  Confirms your own hunches about the
• trend
• B.  Suggests other causes for the trend
• C. Provides evidence in support of your
• proposed causes
• D. Suggests effects of the trend
• E. Suggests problems/solutions for the trend

59
Basic Features of Trend Analysis

• Presentation of Trend
• A Convincing Causal Argument
• An On-going Questioning

60
Presentation of Trend

• Introduce engagingly
• Prove existence of trend through
• anecdotes, statistics
• Provide details, background, current status
• Thesis identify both the trend and the
• main reason or reasons for the existence of
  the
• trend

61
A Convincing Causal Argument

• Include the presentation of the causes
• in an effective order
• Provide evidence in support of each
• cause
• Anticipate counter arguments
• Refute counter arguments

62
CAUSAL CHAINRemote causes Foreign
CompetitionImmediate causes Sales, profit
dropSituation Clothing factory
closesImmediate effects Jobs vanishRemote
effects Town flounders
63
Questions to Ask Yourself While Drafting

• Have I mentioned only one or two causes when I
  should be accounting for several?
• Have I mistakenly assumed that something that
  occurred prior to the beginning of the trend was
  therefore a cause?

64

• How can I be sure not to confuse causes with
  effects? Sometimes effects can be sustaining the
  causes of a trend, but if that is so, I should
  acknowledge it as such.
• Are any of my causes also results?
• How can I show readers that I have accepted the
  burden of proof? I must offer proof for all my
  assertions and not assume the reader will
  understand or make connections.
• How can I refute counter arguments without
  ridiculing their proponents?