The Role of Theory in Criminology

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The Role of Theory in Criminology
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What is a Theory?
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Why Have Theory?

• Answers the question, why?
• Make sense of the facts we observe
• Predict what may happen in the future
• Shape and direct scientific research
• Shape and direct policies to reduce crime

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Examples of Theories

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Crime Theoryand Common Sense

• Its all in the genes
• Hes from the wrong side of the tracks
• She got in with the wrong crowd
• What he needs is a good stiff kick
• Its the parents fault
• Weve got to stop coddling criminals
• Its the music she listens to
• How else could he hope to get rich?
• His teachers expected him to fail, so he did

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What is Criminological Theory?

• Articulated propositions
• Specify the relationships between variables
• Unarticulated propositions
• Assumptions about human beings
• Cognitive (empirical) validity
• Does the theory fit with research results?

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Specifying the Relationships Between Variables

• Direct (causal) effect
• A affects C directly
• Indirect (mediated) effect
• A affects C by affecting B
• B is the mediating variable

A
C
A
B
C
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Specifying the Relationship Between Variables

• Interaction effect
• The relationship between A and C differs
  depending on B

A
C
B
- B conditions the relationship A and C - B
moderates the relationship A and C
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Specifying the Relationship Between Variables

• Correlation, not causation
• A and C are correlated but not causally related

A
C
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Specifying the Relationship Between Variables

• Exogenous variables
• Not explained by the causal diagram or model
• Endogenous variables
• Explained by the causal diagram or model

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Causal Diagram
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A Basic Issue

• Is criminal behavior caused or is it the product
  of free will?
• If caused, are criminals biologically different
  than non-criminals, or is it their social
  experiences that matter most?