OPENING ADDRESS Olivier Appert President of IFP

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OPENING ADDRESSOlivier AppertPresident of IFP

• ASPO Seminar
• Paris 26 May 2003

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The announcement of the imminent depletion of
oil reserves a recurrent theme
 La Technique moderne  1919

•  Nearly 4.2 billion barrels of oil had been
  produced in the United-States since 1859...
• No more than 7 billion additional barrels
  could be produced. 

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Forecast date of oil conventionnal peak since 1970
Forecast date of conventionnal peak
US EIA
IEA WEO 2000
Edwards
IEA WEO 1998
Bartlett
Smith
Ivanhoe
Campbell
Petroconsultant
 Nemesis 
USGS
Deffeyes
UK Dept of Energy
United Nations
World Bank
ESSO
Shell
Hubbert
BP
Source Energy exploration exploitation
Date of forecast
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Main arguments of optimists

• a growing playing field
• the role of technology
• demand lower than anticipated

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Opening of a New Playing Field
Countries still closed
Countries open since 1993
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Offshore Oil Exploration and Production Records
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World Oil Production
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UK North Sea oil production forecasts during the
80 s
Mb/d
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Oil demand Forecasts (WPC 1980)
Mb/d
Real level
Source Shell Oil company
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IFP RD Program
A contribution to a sustainable supply of energy
resources

• Risk assessment in exploration
• Increasing the success rate in exploration
  (notably in complex zones)
• EOR
• Increasing the sweep efficiency by improving the
  reservoir characterization, acting on fluid
  properties and fluid-rock interactions and
  developing new drilling and well technology
  applied to complex reservoirs or offshore, etc.
• Unconventional oil resources
• Optimizing tar sands and extra-heavy oil
  exploitation (from reservoir to syncrude
  production)
• Energy saving
• Developing engines with new combustion systems

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Evolution of oil reserves discovered in giant
fields
Volumes of oil discovered in giant fields per
decade
Gbbl
Gb
Oil initial reserves greater than 500 Mbbl
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Impact of Decline Rate on Investment
Decline rate assumption 5 demand growth 2 ?
around 60 mb/d of additional production capacity
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