Evaluating variation in abundance of Arctic cisco in the Colville River using existing scientific in

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Evaluating variation in abundance of Arctic cisco
in the Colville River using existing scientific
information and traditional knowledge        
2006 Marine Science Symposium
Stephen M. Murphy ABR, Inc.Environmental
Research Services Stephen R. Braund Stephen
R. Braund Associates Franz J. Mueter Sigma
Plus, Statistical Consulting Services Lawrence
L. Moulton MJM Research

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BACKGROUND

• Arctic cisco (Qaaktaq) are an important
  subsistence resource for the residents of Nuiqsut
• The subsistence fishery on the Colville delta
  starting experiencing a decline in harvest rates
  in 1998

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BACKGROUND

• Arctic cisco (Qaaktaq) are an important
  subsistence resource for the residents of Nuiqsut
• The subsistence fishery on the Colville delta
  starting experiencing a decline in harvest rates
  in 1998
• Because Arctic cisco potentially could be
  affected by offshore oil and gas development, MMS
  decided to investigate whether offshore
  development was affecting the fishery
• MMS convened a workshop on Arctic cisco in
  Nuiqsut in Nov. 2003 that included local experts
  and scientists. One conclusion of the workshop
  was that much could be gained from a
  multidisciplinary exploration of existing data
• This study was developed as a direct result of
  that workshop

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STUDY APPROACH

• Collection, analysis, and synthesis of long-term
  data sets on Arctic cisco and regional data sets
  on weather, oceanographic conditions, and
  development activities that may be influencing
  key life history events that take place in the
  Beaufort Sea and Colville River
• Engagement of a Panel of Local Experts from
  Nuiqsut to help guide the analytical work and
  interpretation of results

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LOCAL PANEL OF EXPERTS

• Nuiqsut residents nominated and chose a Panel
• Input from the Panel will be important for
  identifying data for use in the analyses and for
  deriving alternate hypotheses
• Traditional knowledge will be used as more than
  just anecdotal information, but rather will form
  the basis for many of the analyses we will
  conduct

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Interrelationships and Flow of Work Among Tasks
Hypothesis Testing
Data Exploration
Panel of Local Experts Validating Interpretations
Sensitivity Analysis
Data Collection
Synthesis, Conclusions, and Recommendations
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At Least Four Meetings of the Scientific Team and
the Panel of Local Experts will be held in
Nuiqsut to

• ensure that the scientists are exposed to and
  understand local and traditional knowledge about
  Arctic cisco
• to infuse the information from the local experts
  into the analytical process and, thereby, guide
  the direction and focus of the analyses and
  interpretations of results
• gain consensus where possible

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Integration of Western Science Traditional
Ecological Knowledge (TEK)

• Requires a conceptual understanding of both
  perspectives
• Requires an operational plan to
• facilitate communication
• exchange ideas at appropriate technical level
• work toward project objectives
• Need to truly integrate the Native communities
  input into scientific process to avoid having
  residents think their knowledge and views were
  insufficiently considered

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Life History and Habitats of the Arctic Cisco

•   Arctic cisco that occur in Alaska originate
  from the Mackenzie River system in Canada
•    Young-of-the-year Arctic cisco are
  transported via ocean currents westward to the
  Colville River
•    Recruitment strength has been correlated with
  easterly winds in the Beaufort Sea region
•    Colville River is the only drainage west of
  the Mackenzie that supports significant
  overwintering populations of subadult Arctic
  cisco

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Beaufort Sea and Qaaqtaq life history
Beaufort
Gyre
Undercurrent
Map
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Number of fish and wind speed
East wind
West wind
2.5
2.0
1.5
Recruitment Index
1.0
0.5
2001
0.0
0
1
2
3
Average wind speed (m/sec)
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Age-5 CPUE vs. recruitment
R2 0.70
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Factors Potentially Impacting Arctic Cisco
Identified by Scientists and/or Inupiat Experts

• Changes in Beaufort Sea circulation patterns
• Causeways
• Construction of Undersea Pipelines
• Ice Bridges and Ice Roads
• Introduction of contaminants from drilling muds
• Changes in river morphology
• Recruitment at the Mackenzie River
• Cumulative effects of oil development
• Harvest by subsistence and commercial fisheries

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Causeway-related concerns

• Do causeways impede migration and affect
  recruitment?
• Physical barrier
• Change in local upwelling / salinity
• Are growth, condition, and/or survival of
  subadults adversely affected by changes in the
  quality or quantity of summer feeding habitat?

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Prudhoe Bay Offshore structuresand fyke net
sampling sites
5 km
West Dock Causeway
Endicott Causeway
From Fechhelm et al. (2004)
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Anomalies in number of fish
1.0
0.5
Recruitment Index (anomaly)
0.0
-0.5
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
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Take Home Messages

• The Native community in Alaska is becoming
  increasing active as stakeholders in resource
  management
• The scientific community needs to figure out how
  to effectively incorporate the knowledge,
  experience, and concerns of the Native community
  into their research
• Establishing trusting relationships and methods
  for effective information transfer are critical