FISTERA http:fistera.jrc.es

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Foresight as a tool for developing common EU
strategies (in IST)
Experiences from FISTERA Foresight on IST in the
European Research Area FISTERA/IT Star
Meeting Prague, October 22, 2004 C. Pascu, R.
Compañó, JC. Burgelman Institute for Prospective
Tecnological Studies, Sevilla (IPTS) Joint
Research Centre (www.jrc.cec.eu.int)
FISTERA http//fistera.jrc.es/
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Setting the scene

• Whats the point? The Context
• FISTERA Methodology and approach
• Future Looking beyond ICT

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The Context

• EU Lisbon Strategy - The shift to the knowledge
  based society (The Union has today set itself a
  new strategic goal for the next decade to become
  the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based
  economy in the world capable of sustainable
  economic growth with more and better jobs and
  greater social cohesion- European Council
  Lisbon, March 2000) and eEurope Action Plans
• In this context, ICTs have a central role to
  play
• Critical enabler of productivity growth and
  innovation
• Important industry per se
• Systemic technology (affects/enables social and
  institutional changes)

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WHY FISTERA

• Contribute to building of an European Research
  Area in IST research
• Contribute to the open method of coordination by
  finding common grounds (vision, priorities).
• Bring in societal concerns and societal vision
  into a hard core technical area (technological)

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AIMS (1)

• Bring together (systematic and extensive), actors
  and insights in national FS exercises on IST in
  order to provide input to the European Research
  Programme (FP7 IST)
• Develop the common vision and approach to the IS
  in an enlarged Europe in 2010 and beyond.
• Involve as much as possible key IST policy makers
  and players in the EU and at the national level.
• Create a European forum for discussion
• ? Use foresight to get there

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AIMS (2)

• FISTERA Mission Strengthening a network of
  researchers and institutions that fosters
  understanding key factors that will enable Europe
  to become one of the leading players in crucial
  ICT areas
• Whats the point
• What are Europes strengths and weaknesses with
  respect to ICT as compared to global competitors?
• What are the opportunities, threats and
  challenges for Europe?
• What should be done to improve Europes position?

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WHOs WHO?

• A Thematic Network for prospective activities on
  Information Society Technologies under the
  European Research Programme (FP5)
• Started in 2002 - Duration of 3 years
• 17 Members
• Coordinated by IPTS, part of the European
  Commissions DG Joint Research Centre

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FISTERA METHODOLOGY

• Making use of FORESIGHT TOOLBOX
• Traditional (e.g. Foresight studies),
• Adapted (e.g online Delphi )
• New (e.g. Technology Trajectories concept)
  Foresight tools
• For assessing upcoming technological, social,
  economic and political issues

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TODAY
TOMORROW
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Example
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Reviewing national foresight visions and SWOT

• Analyzed FS from 8 EU Member States (Austria,
  Czech Republic, France, Germany, Hungary, Spain,
  Sweden, United Kingdom)
• Aim Understanding commonalities and differences
  in the visions on IST
• Next phase 3 post- bubble and post 9/11 on
  security, convergence and the new economy

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FINDINGS national FS

• Different granularities from technology point of
  view
• National visions in line with Lisbon objectives
• EU not a central dimension (mainly present as
  part of the national SWOT analysis)
• Visions in FS are often need oriented (areas of
  public interest)
• ISTs are tools to reach social, eco etc.
  objectives, not and end in itself

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Important points from national FS

• Forecasted Technologies are mainly extrapolations
  of what exists already.
• Hype of the day as key trend for tomorrow
  (difficult to avoid Zeitgeist problem ,
  i.e.being prisoner of spirit of the times or
  believing that what is hot today will remain
  so in the future)- e.g. -e-commerce (2000),
  security (now)
• National FS do not cover the whole chain from
  technology assessment to societal impact
• Parochial nature of FS (ignore happenings in
  other European countries) - The need for
  Europe-wide SWOT analysis and assessment of the
  relative position of each country and Europes at
  a global scale
• Limited value for an EU approach (Sum of national
  FS a European vision) - The need for a pan
  European permanent monitoring

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Mapping national FS with Technology Trajectories
Indicator for consensus on promising ICT domains
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Applications in the National FS
Individuals
Business
Public
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FISTERA TECHNOLOGY TRAJECTORIES Concept

• Overview of potential technology evolution,
  challenges laying ahead, and potential areas
  where research investment may be more productive,
  given the local situation
• Investigating clusters of technologies for their
  functionalities (i.e. what they offer) and then
  determining applications offered in different
  environments (e.g. at home)
• Top-down analysis and Bottom-up analysis
• Currently comprising 87 technologies
• An "early detection system" - monitoring
  possible technology disruptions, highlighting
  technology areas to keep an eye on
• Online tool 4-layer Model state-of-the-art and
  perspectives for 2010 and 2020
• Http//fistera.telecomitalialab.com

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The FOUR LAYERS MODEL

• What is the social implication?
• What are the concerns?
• Is life quality improving?
• Who is benefiting?

• Whose business is it?
• Where the research investment
• would be more effective?

• What is needed
• Where should research be focused?
• Showing tech. alternatives
• Evolution over time

• Related to Information Society
• Basic vs Aggregate Technology
• Is there value in investing?

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4-LAYER MODEL INTERPLAY OF TECHNOLOGIES
The FOUR LAYERS
Source http//fistera.telecomitalialab.com
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Technologies in the National FS
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FISTERAKey factors
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Spreading the word

• Cross-European debate for building an European
  Research Area
• Face-to-face vs
  Virtual approach

National Roadshow workshops (research community
from FISTERA Membercountries) Targeted
meetings Commissions staff, RD Nat Directors,
Politicians (European Parliaments
EPTA),Industry Thematic meetings Enlargement
countries, Human Resources in IST, Trends,
Challenge and Drivers Others IST Days,
DGINFSO meetings, ISTAG, academic policy
conferences, etc
Email alert 600 people Web 300.000
hits Thematic Online Delphis (e.g. IST
Applications) Technology Trajectories Online !!
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FutureLooking beyond ICT

• Technology trends and Visions towards KS
• Convergence with bio, nano, cogno technologies
• How Europe looks at iself ? Post-bubble,
  post-9/11 Foresights

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FISTERA and network effects

• All public available knowledge http//fistera.jrc.
  es
• Use the site to comment and enrich debate
• Contact
• R. Compañó
• ramon.compano_at_cec.eu.int
• C. Pascu
• corina.pascu_at_cec.eu.int
• J.C. Burgelman
• jean-claude.burgelman_at_ cec.eu.int