Economic Outlook for the U.S. and New England

1
Expansion Returns First to South and West
Already achieved
First half 2003
Second half 2003
After 2003
Date when employment reaches new peak
2
Currently ExpandingEnergy dependent, small
retirement, regional tourism, college towns

Bangor
Portland
Madison
Ann Arbor
Chico
Providence
Reno

New London
Lafayette
Las Vegas

Bakersfield
Springfield
Santa Fe
Nashville
Riverside
Oklahoma City
Fayetteville
Myrtle Beach
Charleston
Jackson
Tyler
Baton Rouge
Anchorage
McAllen
Metro areas having already achieved a new
employment peak
3

First Half 2003Mid-size defense, tech
producers, latin capital flight, retirement

Olympia
Richland
Syracuse
Albany
Sioux Falls
Newburgh
Nassau
Des Moines
Yolo
Lancaster

Monmouth
Fresno
Middlesex

Norfolk
Santa Barbara
Asheville
Raleigh
Albuquerque
Wilmington
San Diego
Charlotte
Savannah
Jacksonville
Houston
San Antonio
Ocala
Fort Pierce
Sarasota
West Palm Beach
Fort Myers
Miami
Naples
Brownsville
Metro areas achieving a new employment peak in
the first half of 2003
4

Second Half 2003Federal spending, larger
defense, some state capitals, durable goods

Tacoma
Eugene
Dutchess County
Springfield
Grand Rapids
Lansing
Kalamazoo
Harrisburg
Sacramento
Jersey City
Vallejo
Canton

Atlantic City
Columbus
Oakland
Springfield
Wilmington

Baltimore
Lexington
Ventura
Washington DC
Knoxville
Los Angeles
Chattanooga
Tulsa
Richmond
Orange County
Lubbock
Phoenix
Greenville
Tuscon
Fort Worth
Birmingham
Macon
Odessa
Killeen
Austin
Orlando
Tampa
Beaumont
Lakeland
Corpus Christi
Fort Lauderdale
Metro areas achieving a new employment peak in
the second half of 2003
5

First Half 2004Larger manufacturing / service /
air hubs, major tourism / transport, smaller
manufacturing
Minneapolis
Boise City
Appleton
Boston
Milwaukee
Pittsburgh
Omaha
Santa Rosa
Davenport
Newark

Lincoln
Stockton
Indianapolis
Philadelphia
Cincinnati

Louisville
Johnson City
Memphis
Huntsville
Shreveport
Dallas
Montgomery
Pensacola
El Paso
Tallahassee
Lafayette
Daytona Beach
Melbourne
New Orleans
Metro areas achieving a new employment peak in
the first half of 2004
6

Second Half 2004Large telecom / transport /
manufacturing, small manufacturing / auto, small
tech
Duluth
Yakima
Portland
Scranton
Buffalo
New Haven
Cleveland
Chicago
Bergen-Passaic
Salt Lake City
Toledo
Provo

Akron
Trenton
Peoria
Dayton
Kansas City
Allentown

Huntington
Colorado Springs
Columbia
Reading
Greensboro
Charlottesville
Fayetteville
Little Rock
Atlanta
Augusta
Mobile
Galveston
Metro areas achieving a new employment peak in
the second half of 2004
7

Post 2004Hardest hit metro areas
Seattle
Spokane
Binghamton
Utica
Rochester
Saginaw
Flint
Rockford
Detroit
Hartford
Cedar Rapids
Youngstown
New York City
San Francisco
Gary

Boulder
Fort Wayne
San Jose
York
Denver
Charleston

Wichita
Evansville
St. Louis
Hickory
Columbia
Honolulu