To Infinity

1
To Infinity Beyond!
Peter Cochrane ConceptLabs CA Co-Founder
2
Personal Communication
Wireless communication
3
Faster Faster Wealth Generation
USBn
100
PC
Internet
Mobile
90
New Company Value
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Year
4
Distribution
Manufacture
Raw Materials
RETAIL
Ecosystem
Consumer
Trash
Trash
5
Machine
Mobile
B-B
B-B
B-B
Distribution
Manufacture
Raw Materials
RETAIL
Ecosystem
B-C
C-C
C-B
Consumer
Trash
Trash
6
2G - A field of dreams
Build it and they will come
750M did, just for Voice SMS
7
Communicating on the move

• We value mobility above Quality
• We value mobility above Price
• Mobility is Personal
• Text messaging is about Time Shifting
• Data text are more important than voice
• Bandwidth is now the lubricant of our society

8
UK SMS Messages 99
Millions
9
UK SMS Messages
3.5Bn
Year 2
0.3Bn
Year 1
10
UK SMS Messages
12Bn
Year 3
3.5Bn
Year 2 Year 1
11
3G - A field of dreams
Build it and will they comeagain?
Wire line quality Seamless roaming MP3 Sound
Files MPEG Movie Files JPEG Digital Photos On
Line Games IP Telephony IP Video Conference IP
Radio TV GPS TeleCare New Markets
12
Why did WAP fail?
Over-hyped Overdue Under performed -Slow -Limite
d web access -Nothing like a PC Too complex to
engineer Too complex to use
13
Disruptive Technologies
3G gtgt 2G
Sustained technological improvements
Performance
Performance customers can absorb or utilize
New Technology
Time
14
Powerful mobile devices
Machines
0.5 year
M-Media
1year
Java
2 years
Internet
4 years
Messaging
5 years
Voice
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
04 05
More Mobile than fixed Messages
the voice Net purchases than
a PC
15
A small screen is not a BIG SCREEN
16
Will 3G happen in the EU?

• gt 60Bn Licence fees
• gt 60Bn Infrastructure
• gt 60Bn Development
• gt??Bn Marketing Sales
• gt200Bn Total

17
Will 3G happen in the EU?

• 400 per head of population
• gt 10 years to break even
• gt 18 months to first chip sets
• gt 24 months to first sales
• gt 48 months worst case
• Mounting public pressure changing
• government position on masts towers

18
Operator Options?

• Merge companies, networks and
• operations to offset costs
• Load cost onto 2G service
• - More expensive handsets
• - More expensive calls
• - Reduce Quality of Service
• - Reduce customers services

19
Operator Options?

• Merge companies, networks and
• operations to offset costs
• Load cost onto 2G service
• - More expensive handsets
• - More expensive calls
• - Reduce Quality of Service
• - Reduce customers services

20
Government Options?

• Reset the clock
• Give the money back
• A once vibrant sector has been raped
• and may never be the same again
• Banks may begin to foreclose on
• Mounting debts

21
The Only Realistic Option?

• Use 3G to wipe out the last/first mile

22
Network TypesCopper, Fibre, Radio, Optical -
Static - Mobile
Chip to Chip
Board to Board
LANs WANs MANs
Long Haul
Backplanes
Spatial Density
Spectral Density
1mm 10cm 10m 1km 1000km
1cm 1m 100m 10km 10000km
Everything is moving toward IP based operations
23
3G Threats Limitations??

• Technology options frozen too early
• Not IP based
• CDMA is band-limited
• - 2.5G can deliver almost as much
• - 4G coming faster than expected
• - Parasitic networks are far superior

24
Yearly Productivity
100
80
70
Quantity/Unit Time
BW
60
Chip
40
20
SW
0
25
The key constraint?
350 pa
150 pa
Wireless WWW Content / Apps
Devices
Infrastructure
26
Extrapolation from 1950s
Clock
1T 1G 1M 1K 1
HD
RAM
Backbone
Last/First Mile
1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007
27
Network
Office Home
Always On Dial Up
MStream Cable PSTN ADSL
Mobile
100Mbit/s LAN
11Mbit/s WLAN
2Mbit/s 0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s
256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s
28
Office Home
Network
Hard Drives
Clock
LAN 100 Mbit/s
WLAN
MStream Cable PSTN ADSL
Mobile
100,000 MByte
1000 MHz
11Mbit/s
2Mbit/s 0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s 256kbit/s
9.6kbit/s
29
Net Access
Bn
1.6
Mobile phones
1.4
Mobile Phones With web access
1.2
Wired phones
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
PCs
0.2
0.0
96 97 98 99 00 01 02
03 04
30
If Telco's sold cars
31
Will the Telco/Cable Cos Deliver?
They just dont get it! They just dont have
it! They dont want to do it! They dont have to
do it! They cant do it anyway!!
NO
Wrong infrastructure Wrong mindset Mounting debts
32
Have we been here before?
YES
33
Have we been here before?
Community Antenna TV ABC dont do terminals
ABC dont do support ABC dont do
delivery ABC dont do networks
YES
Parasitic Nets - 802.11 et al
34
Who needs a Telco or Cableco?
35
PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
36
PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
37
PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!
38
PARASITIC NETWORKSWith mobile base stations!
39
PARASITIC NETWORKSNew modes!
40
Wireless - the story so far
3000GHz
0.1mm
300GHz
1mm
BroadBand Satellite
Military Satellite
Microwave Antenna
30GHz
1cm
Low-Earth Orbit Satellite
Marine Satellite
Experimental Comm Satellite
3GHz
10 cm
Colour TV
Cellular Phone
300MHz
1m
Black White TV
Walkie- Talkie
30 MHz
10 m
Modern Shortwave
Short wave radio
100m
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
41
Opportunity
42
Wireless Technologies
Optical Unregulated Very secure Short
range Broadband Immature No radiation risk gt
50,000GHz
Radio Regulated Secure Medium-long
range Narrowband Mature Radiation risk? lt 300GHz
Spectrum
43
Diffuse Optical
Optical transceiver
Network
Cell
44
TelCo/CableCo Defence
Mobile
ISP
X
Switch
45
Latency

• Network latency should be dominated by the
  speed-of-light delay
• Managed by tight integration of optical and
  electronic technologies, architectures, operating
  systems and programming

46
Minimising Latency

• provide abundant network bandwidth
• strip out layers and protocols
• minimise network crossings
• - ideal each expedition1 crossing return
• introduce information geography (location and
  distance of information) as the key parameter in
  network architecture, operating systems and
  programming

47
processor
memory
processor
memory
Current architecture
processor
processor
memory
memory
Future-matched architecture
48
Telephone Network
Random Events Hierarchy gt Time Frequency
Aggregation gt Economy gt Blocking/Freeze
Out Control - Total - Prescriptive gt Fixed
Bandwidth gt Low Flexibility gt Extremely
Reliable gt Reasonably Resilient gt Fundamentally
Unsuited to Data
49
Internet
Bursty Events No Hierarchy gt Time Aggregation
gt Economy gt Variable Latency Control -
Little gt Variable Bandwidth gt High
Flexibility gt Flaky gt Infinitely Resilient gt
Fundamentally Unsuited to Speech
50
Parasitic Nets
Bursty Events No Hierarchy gt Time Space
Aggregation gt Economy gt Huge Latency Control
- None gt Variable Bandwidth gt Infinite
Flexibility gt Highly Reliable gt Highly
Resilient gt Fundamentally Unsuited to Real Time
51
Hardware Software Network Applications
Convergence??
Established Wisdom

• I dont think so.

52
Planet wide universal access??
Thank you, cochrane.org.uk conceptlabs.net