WORKSHOP AGIR

1

• WORKSHOP AGIR
• THE HAGUE
• FEBRUARY 14-15 2003
• RESULTS FOR BELGIUM WP1
• J. MESTDAGH M. LAMBRECHT

Federal Planning Bureau Economic Analysis
Forecasts
2
WP1 Results Belgium

• TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Population
• Mortality
• Longevity
• Life courses
• Morbidity health
• HLE - DFLE

3
Evolution of the population

• Belgian population, by gender, 1950-2050 (31/12)
• 1948 4.2 million men and 4.3 million women (8.5)
• 2000 5.0 million men and 5.2 million women
  (10.2)
• 2050 5.4 million men and 5.5 million women (10.9)

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Population structure by age
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Average age of population

• 1948 34.5 for men and 36 for women
• 2000 38 for men and 40 for women
• 2050 43.5 for men and 46 for women
• 2050 0-19 92.5 20-44 101.8 45-59 120
  60 266

6
Number of deaths by age

• ? Shift to the right from 1948 2050 deaths
  take place at older age (increase life
  expectancy)

7
Survivors

• Survival curves for fictive cohorts (MW),
  1950-2000
• Shift upwards and to the right in time more
  people survive at younger ages and people die
  later

8
Survivors (2)

• Survival curve 2000 and 2050 by gender
• Further upward shift to the right
• Higher for women than for men

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Life expectancy at birth
88.9
83.9
81.4
75.1
69,9
65.0
10
Life expectancy at age 65
25.2
21.5
20.0
15.9
14.4
12.7
11
Life expectancy at 80
12.1
9.8
8.8
6.9
6.1
5.4
12
Modal life duration

• Age at which most deaths take place

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Median Life duration
90.9
84.6
86.2
78.3
75.6
70.9
14
Life endurance
99.3
94.6
96.7
88.3
90.6
85.5
15
Record age
112
108
106
105
16
Age at which school ends
21.6
20.9
19.9
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Age at household formation
29.7
27.3
25.6
23.5
23.3
21.6
18
Age parents at childbirth
31.4
29.0
28.9
27.5
27.5
27.5
25.4
23.0
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Age of transition into inactivity among older
workers(OECD Definition)
63.3
62.9
58.3
57.6
56.9
54.1
20
Age at first widowhood
71.2
68.2
68.7
65.0
21
Perceived Health

• of population in good or very good health
• 1997 Men 82, women 75
• 2001 Men 79.5, women 75

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Perceived Health (2)

• of population in (very) good health
• Decrease in with age
• Men mostly better perceived health than women

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Vision impairment

• of population without limitations, 2001, by age
  group
• ? Decreases with age men better vision than
  women

24
Vision impairment

• Vision impairment by age group and gender and
  degree, 2001
• ? Limitations degree increase with age men
  have better vision

25
Deafness

• of population without hearing problems, 2001,
  by age group
• ? Decreases with age women better than men

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Deafness (2)

• of population with hearing problems, 2001, by
  gender and degree
• ? Increase of limitations and degree with age
  men worse than women

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Mental Health

• of population in good mental health, 2001
• Difficult to draw conclusions about age
• Men seem to have better health except in oldest
  age group

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Mobility handicap

• of population without any limitations,
  1997-2001
• decreases with age, more limitations for
  elderly
• lower for women than for men
• Older age groups lower in 2001 than 1997
  (worse!)

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Mobility handicap - 2001 (2)
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Healthy Life Expectancy

• LE and HLE, Men, 2001
• Gap LE HLE decreases with age (13 years at age
  15, 3 years at age 85)

61.1
47.6
5.1
1.8
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Healthy Life Expectancy (2)

• LE and HLE, Women, 2001
• Gap LE HLE decreases with age (18 years at age
  15, 3.6 years at age 85)

67.3
48.8
6.4
2.8
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Healthy Life Expectancy (3)

• Percentage of years in good health in total LE
  (or HLE / LE 100)
• Decrease with age elderly people can expect to
  spend bigger part of remaining years in bad
  health
• Higher for men than for women (except oldest age
  group)

78
73
43
36
age
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HLE compression / expansion
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Disability Free LE

• LE and DFLE, MEN , 2001
• ? DFLE decreases with age, gaps narrows with age

75.3
56.1
3.6
0.3
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Disability Free LE (2)

• LE and DFLE, women, 2001
• Decrease with age, gap narrows with age

81.7
60.8
4.4
1.1
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Disability Free LE (3)

• Percentage of years without disability in LE (or
  DFLE / LE 100)
• Decrease with age
• Similar for men and women, except higher age
  groups (despite higher LE for women)

74
35-37
37
DFLE compression / expansion