Ort, Datum

1
Latin America in Baseline Mitigation Scenarios
to 2100 Truong Truong Claudia KemfertGerman
Institute for Economic Research, Berlin, Germany
Latin America Modeling and Scenarios
WorkshopRio de Janeiro, BrazilSeptember 13-14,
2006 Sponsors U.S. EPA Stanford EMF Hosts
CentroClima/COPPE/UFRJCenter for Integrated
Studies on Climate Change and the Environment,
Institute of Postgraduate Studies of Engineering,
Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
2
GTAP - model A static computable general
equilibrium (CGE) model for modelling
international trade issues established by
theGlobale Trade Analysis Project (Purdue
University, Centre for Global Trade
Analysis). http//gtap.purdue.edu
3
GTAP-EGTAP with Energy-substitution

• Burniaux and Truong (2000).

4
GTAP-ELGTAP-E with Multi-gas (CO2,CH4, N2O) and
Land-Use

• Burniaux (2002), Burniaux and Lee (2002)
• Hyman et al. (2002).

5
GTAPE-LTD GTAP model with (E)nergy
substitution, Multigas, (L)and-use (T)echnology
(D)ecomposition
6
Regional Aggregation
7
Sectoral Aggregation
8
Reference Scenario Assumptions
9
Per capita GDP growth (over 5-year)
10
CCSP Draft Report 2006
11
Land growth rate (over 5-year)
12
Labour growth rate (over 5-year)
13
NATURAL RESOURCES growth rate (over 5-year)
14
CAPITAL growth rate (over 5-year)
15
Reference Scenario Results
16
Radiative Forcing
17
Radiative Forcing
18
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
19
CH4 concentration (ppbv)
20
N2O concentration (ppbv)
21
CO2 emissions
22
CO2 emissions
23
CH4 emissions
24
N2O emissions
25
Level 2 Scenario Results
26
Radiative Forcing
27
(No Transcript)
28
CO2 concentration (ppmv)
29
CO2 emissions
30
CH4 emissions
31
N2O emissions
32
Elasticities of abatement (Base level)
Source Hyman et al. (2002)
33
Elasticities of abatement (High level)
Source Hyman et al. (2002)
34
N2O emissions
35
N2O emissions with HIGH level of elasticity of
abatement
36
CO2 emissions with Base level of elasticities of
abatement for CH4 N2O
37
CO2 emissions with HIGH level of elasticities of
abatement for CH4 N2O
38
CH4 emissions with Base level of elasticities of
abatement for CH4 N2O
39
CH4 emissions with HIGH level of elasticities of
abatement for CH4 N2O
40
(No Transcript)
41
with HIGH elasticities of abatement
42
Radiative Forcing level with HIGH elasticities of
abatement