The place of religion in the Iranian fertility transition

1
The place of religion in the Iranian fertility
transition

• Peter McDonald Md Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi
• The Australian National University The
  University of Tehran

Presentation given at the international
conferenceCivil Society, Religion Global
Governance Paradigms of Power Persuasion12
September 2005, Canberra Australia
2
The fastest fall in fertility ever recorded

• Confounding all conventional wisdom, the
  fertility rate in the Islamic Republic of Iran
  fell from around 7.0 births per woman in the
  early 1980s to 2.1 births per woman in 2000.
• Our latest estimates indicate that some parts of
  Iran have fertility rates that are very low
  (below 1.5 births per woman), a rate generally
  considered to be too low for long-run
  demographic sustainability.

3
The Total Fertility Rate, Iran, 1972-2001
4
The emergence of the Islamic republic

• Following the 1970s oil boom, by the end of the
  1970s, many Iranians considered that their
  country was wealthy but that they themselves were
  not seeing the fruits of that wealth.
• The outcome was regime change through popular
  revolution, the only example of such change in
  the Middle East in the past 40 years.
• The strong and viable alternative at the time was
  an Islamic Republic.

5
The early years of the revolution

• Reform in the new republic was focussed first and
  foremost on the application of a conservative
  social and religious agenda and upon the
  realignment of foreign relationships.
• Highly visible were reforms related to women
  including the application of their status as
  contingent upon a responsible male, separation of
  the sexes in public, the enforcement of the
  strict dress code and the lowering of the minimum
  age at marriage for girls to nine years.

6
Policy in relation to births

• The family planning program which under the Shah
  regime had enjoyed only modest success at best
  was allowed to fall into disrepair and
  contraception became less readily available.
• Indeed, the new government, plunged almost
  immediately into a long and bloody war with Iraq,
  adopted a number of policies that were
  effectively pronatalist.
• The total rejection of western values and
  isolation from those values along with the
  changes in womens status portrayed Iran to the
  West as being culturally conservative, especially
  in relation to fertility and family planning.

7
Fertility 1980-84

• This expectation was borne out in the first years
  of the revolution through increases in fertility
  rates across the country.
• In some provinces, especially those with
  substantial ethnic minorities (and more
  especially those that were Sunni), the
  cross-sectional fertility rate rose in the first
  half of the 1980s to almost ten children per
  woman.

8
The economy in the early years of the revolution

• Economic reform was very limited in the new
  republic. Stimulated by the war and perhaps by
  the Islamic approach to economic development,
  industry became even more state-centralised and
  isolated from world markets.
• 580 large to medium sized companies were
  nationalized. Protection, inflation and currency
  mismanagement were rampant.
• The hopes of most people that their economic
  circumstances would be greatly improved were not
  realised.

9
Access to services

• The new government invested heavily in
  infrastructure especially electricity and water
  supply.
• More importantly for the story of this paper,
  however, was the creation throughout the country
  of widespread and cheap access to education and
  health services. Infant and child mortality rates
  fell sharply and education and literacy rose
  rapidly.

10
The status of women

• Despite the restrictions placed upon women in
  many areas of their lives, the egalitarian nature
  of the revolution extended full access to
  education and health services to women.
• In this respect, the revolution was highly
  enlightened compared, for example, to what was to
  happen under the Taliban regime in neighbouring
  Afghanistan.
• The following slide shows the rapid advance of
  women in selected provinces.
• Today, women constitute about 60 per cent of new
  enrolments at Iranian universities.

11
Percentage distribution of marriage cohorts by
level of education and province, IFTS 2002
12
1986 the watershed

• The oil price plummeted, greatly reducing the
  revenues of the government
• The war was in its sixth year with no sign of
  resolution
• The first census revealed the massive growth of
  population and the high fertility rates that had
  applied in the first years of the revolution
• The populace had had six years to realise that
  their economic aspirations were not about to be
  met and, with the fall in the oil price, a
  worsening of their circumstances was much more
  likely

13
Fertility 1986-89

• After the census, there was widespread official
  concern about high population growth (4 per
  annum from 1976 to 1986) but official action to
  address the high birth rate was slow.
• Despite this, the fertility rate began to fall
  from the mid 1980s onwards.
• The Total Fertility Rate fell from 6.5 in 1986 to
  5.9 in 1989.

14
Fertility after the national family planning
program 1990

• Since the national family planning program was
  established in 1989, fertility has fallen sharply
  and continues to fall.
• Well over 70 per cent of women of childbearing
  age are using contraception.
• The two-child norm is widespread.
• Simultaneously, women delayed their first births,
  spaced their second births, and stopped having
  children at whatever the number was that they
  already had.

15
Age specific fertility rates for Iran, 1976,
1980, 1986, 1996 and 2000

16
Probability of having another birth, based on the
number a woman already had
17
Contraceptive prevalence rate among currently
married women by age , IFTS 2002
18
Ideal number of children by province and marriage
cohorts, IFTS 2002
19
Ubiquitous decline

• Fertility fell simultaneously in every part of
  the country, rural and urban, every province, all
  ethnicities, Shia and Sunni.

20
Trends in the total fertility rate by province,
Iran, 19722000
                                                So
urce See Table 2.
21
Fertility trend by sect of Islam
22
Fertility trend by language
23
Economic aspects of childbearing, YQS 2001

• Rural woman aged 39 The economic situation is
  not good now, and we cannot have many children.
  Even if the situation became better, its
  impossible to have many children, because we
  cannot rear them properly.
• Urban woman aged 49 with 7 children Having
  children is difficult. We want to rear them
  properly. If we had fewer children, we would not
  have to be thinking about them all the time.

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Religion and Family Planning, YQS 2001

• Urban, 49 If a religious leader says
  tubectomy or vasectomy is forbidden, people would
  not accept it. Because most people are thinking
  that living costs and expenses have increased.
• Rural, 34 If religious leaders say using a
  method is forbidden, I would use it. Because if I
  dont use it I may have another child. Would
  they do anything for me if I become pregnant and
  have another child, then?.

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Economic versus religious considerations

• People prioritise economic considerations over
  religious pronouncements.
• While many religious leaders tend to be
  ambivalent about the legitimacy of various
  methods of contraception and about birth control
  in general, they are also aware of the
  development problems associated with very high
  fertility rates.
• They are also now very aware of the popularity of
  birth control and of the desire of most parents
  to limit the number of their children to no more
  than two.

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Conclusion

• It would be very difficult at this point for any
  Iranian Government to curtail access to
  contraception and sterilization.
• This is especially the case given that, over the
  years, those involved in the running of the
  family planning have been able to obtain fatwa
  from religious scholars that provide approval of
  various forms of contraception, including
  sterilisation.