Sustainable Development Reducing Energy Intensity by 2% Per Year Energy PMP International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies Erice, Italy 19-8-2003 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Sustainable Development Reducing Energy Intensity by 2% Per Year Energy PMP International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies Erice, Italy 19-8-2003

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Title: Sustainable Development Reducing Energy Intensity by 2% Per Year Energy PMP International Seminar on Planetary Emergencies Erice, Italy 19-8-2003


1
Sustainable DevelopmentReducing Energy Intensity
by 2 Per YearEnergy PMP International Seminar
on Planetary EmergenciesErice, Italy 19-8-2003
  • Arthur H. Rosenfeld, Commissioner
  • California Energy Commission
  • (916) 654-4930
  • ARosenfe_at_Energy.State.CA.US
  • www.Energy.CA.gov/commission/commissioners/rosenfe
    ld.html

2
United States Refrigerator Use v. Time Annual
drop from 1974 to 2001 5 per year
2000
25
1800
1600
20
1978 Cal Standard
1400
Refrigerator Size
1980 Cal Standard
(cubic feet)
1200
15
Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year)
1987 Cal Standard
Refrigerator volume (cubic feet)
1000
800
10
1990 Federal
Standard
600
Energy Use per Unit
1993 Federal
400
5
Standard
2001 Federal
200
Standard
0
0
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
3
United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) and
Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time
2000
Estimated Standby
1800
Power (per house)
1600
1400
Refrigerator Use per
1978 Cal Standard
Unit
1200
1987 Cal Standard
Average Energy Use per Unit Sold (kWh per year)
1000
1980 Cal Standard
800
1990 Federal
600
Standard
400
1993 Federal
Standard
2001 Federal
200
Standard
0
1947
1949
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
4
Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million
Refrigerators Freezers in the US
60
50
40
GW
30
capacity saved
capacity needed
20
10
0
at 1974 efficiency
at 2001 efficiency
5
Electricity Use of Refrigerators and Freezers in
the US compared to Generation from Nuclear,
Hydro, Renewables, Three Gorges Dam and ANWR
(Arctic National Wildlife Refuge)
800
Nuclear
700
600
500
Billion kWh per year
400
Conventional
150 M Refrig/Freezers
Hydro
300
at 1974 eff
at 2001 eff
Used
50 Million 2 kW
Existing Renewables
200
PV Systems
Used
3 Gorges Dam
Saved
100
0
6
The Value of Energy Saved and Produced. This is
previous figure re-stated in dollars with
generation worth .03/kWh and savings worth
.085/kWh)
25
Nuclear
Dollars Saved from
150 M Refrig/Freezers
20
at 2001 efficiency
50 Million 2 kW
15
PV Systems
Billion per year
Conventional
10
Hydro
ANWR
Existing
5
3 Gorges Dam
Renewables
0
7
3 Gorges Dam vs. added Appliances in 2010
3 Gorges 18 GW x 3,500 hours/year 63 TWh at
wholesale
Conclusion Optimum appliances could save 35
TWh/year, about one-half of 3 Gorges generation
in 2010. Savings at retail at least twice as
valuable as wholesale, so economically equivalent
to the entire 3 Gorges project.
Source David Fridley - LBNL
8
Impact of Standards on Efficiency of 3 Appliances
110
Effective Dates of

National Standards
100
Effective Dates of

State Standards
90
Gas Furnaces
80
75
70
Index (1972 100)
60
60
Central A/C
50
40
30
Refrigerators
25
20
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
Year
Source S. Nadel, ACEEE, in ECEEE 2003 Summer
Study, www.eceee.org
9
Annual Usage of Air Conditioning in New Homes in
California
Annual drop averages 4 per year
3,000
Initial California Title 24
2,500
Building Standards
100
California Title 20
2,000
Appliance Standards
Estimated Impact of
1976-1982
2006 SEER 12
kWh/YEAR
Standards
1,500
1,000
33
1992 Federal Appliance
500
Standard
0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
Source CEC Demand Analysis Office
10
Estimated Power Saved Due to Air Conditioning
Standards (1974 - 2002) (contd)
  • Peak Power for United States Air Conditioning
    250 GW
  • But standards cover only residential and rooftop
    units 200 GW
  • Avoided GW 67 of 200 GW 135 GW
  • Comparisons
  • California Peak Load 50 GW
  • United States Nuclear Plants net capability 100
    GW
  • Cooler roofs will save another 10 of 200 GW
  • Flat roofs, new or replacement, should be white
  • To be required in 2005 California Building
    Standards
  • Sloped roofs, new or replacement, can be colored
    but cool
  • Each strategy saves 10, so 20 GW total
  • Just switching a-c equipment located outside to
    white should save another 1, or 2 GW

11
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12
GWH Impacts from Programs Begun Prior to 2001
40,000
14 of Annual Use in California in 2001
35,000
30,000
25,000
GWH
20,000
Utility Programs
15,000
10,000
Building Standards
5,000
Appliance Standards
0
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
Source Mike Messenger, CEC Staff, April 2003
13
Electricity Efficiency and Renewables in
CaliforniaGoals of California Energy Action Plan
2003
  • California kWh per capita is already flat
    compared to U.S. climbing 2/yr.
  • New California goal is to reduce kWh per capita
    by 1 per year
  • Renewable Portfolio Standard add 1 of
    renewables per year
  • Additional peak reduction of 1 per year by
    Demand Response when power is expensive or
    reliability is a problem
  • In total, goals aim to reduce electricity growth,
    increase renewables, and grow demand response

14
The Transition to a Sustainable Future
  • Past investments in efficiency have reduced
    growth and saved money
  • In addition, future investments could
    significantly reduce world energy demand and
    carbon emissions
  • We now turn from a discussion of electricity to
    primary energy

15
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16
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17
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18
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the
United States
International Energy Agency (IEA) and EIA
(Energy Information Agency)
2
- 2.7
- 3.4
Average - 0.7
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
IEA data
EIA data
-5
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-6
19
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/Gross State
Product for California
(Sources EIA and California Department of
Finance)
1.0
Average -1.0
-4.5
-3.9
0.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-4.0
-5.0
-6.0
-7.0
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
20
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for Europe
IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) for
European Union and
Western Europe EIA (Energy/Market Exchange Rate)
2
- 1.2
Average - 1.3
- 1.4
1
0
-1
-2
IEA data
EIA data
-3
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-4
21
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for China
IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA
(Energy/Market Exchange Rate)
2
Average - 5.0
- 4.8
- 5.3
0
-2
-4
-6
IEA data
EIA data
-8
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-10
22
Annual Rate of Change in Energy/GDP for the World
IEA (Energy/Purchasing Power Parity) and EIA
(Energy/Market Exchange Rate)
2
- 1.3
- 1.3
Average - 0.7
1
0
-1
-2
-3
IEA data
EIA data
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
-4
note Russia not included until 1992 in IEA data
and 1993 in EIA data
23
The Conservation Bomb (World Primary Power or
Energy)
Quads/yr
TWa
50
1500
10 billion people _at_ 5 kW 50 TW
? 0/yr
GWP 250 Trillion
1200
40
? Annual growth in Energy/GDP
900
30
? -1/yr
600
20
? -2/yr
6 billion people _at_ 2 kW 12 TW
300
10
? -3/yr
GWP 25 Trillion
0
0
2000
2100
Year
24
Gross World Product, from IPCC IS 92a 9 fold
growth in 100 years 2 year
300
240
250
200
Trillion US 1990
150
100
50
27
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
2070
2080
2090
2100
25
Improved efficiency case IS 92a with E/GDP at
-2/yr
EIA International Energy Outlook 2003
Like Improved Case starting with World at current
EU E/GDP
- 0.8 until 2020
Average TW
then - 1.0
- 2.0 from 2000 until 2100
1990 to 2000
Actuals from EIA
26
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27
Annual Rates of Change 2000 to 2100 -- Energy
Intensity vs. GWP
Source IPCC Special Report on Emissons Scenarios
2001, Appendix VII
0.0
-0.5
IS 92a
-1.0
Annualized Growth of E/GWP
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Conservation Bomb
-3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Annualized Growth of GWP
28
Change over Century (2000 to 2100) of Primary
Energy vs. GWP
8
7
6
5
IS 92 a
4
Primary Energy 2100 / Prmary Energy 2000
3
2
1
Conservation Bomb
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
GWP 2100 / GWP 2100
29
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30
(No Transcript)
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