Addressing the Real Skills Crisis What Science tells us about Developing Human Capital for the 21st

1
Addressing the Real Skills Crisis What Science
tells us about Developing Human Capital for the
21st Century
Inter-Ministerial Forum on Early Child
Development
Adelaide, South Australia
By J. Fraser Mustard Founding President, CIAR
Adelaide Thinker in Residence
November 3, 2006
2
06-130
Presentation
Part 1 The Competence of Populations in
the 21st Century Part 2 The Neuroscience
Nature Nurture Study Part 3 Early
Child Development and Health,
Learning and Behaviour
Trajectories Part 4 Effective ECD
Programs Part 5 Policy Cost and Politics
3
03-049
The Evolutionary History of
Homo Sapiens
200, 000 Years
10, 000 Years Agricultural Revolution --
Civilization Experiments
3000 to 4000 Years Written Language
Alphabet
600 Years Books
50 Years Electronic Media
4
05-143
Agricultural Revolution 10,000 years
Transition from hunter-gatherer societies to our
experiments in civilization.
Short History of Progress

Wright 2004
5
01-002
The Growth of the World Population and
6
Some Major Events in the History of Technology
?

Exponential
Knowledge
and
4
Technology
Growth
Population (x 109)

2
Beginning of
Industrial
Revolution
Printing
1st Agricultural
Press

Revolution
9BC


2AD
0
3BC
1BC
5BC
1AD
Year (x 103)
Robert W. Fogel. Economic Growth, Population
Theory, and Physiology, April 1994
6
03-042
The Fourth Awakening (1960) - Fogel
New knowledge and the mystery of life Poor
literacy and ability to understand the written
word
Complexity of civilizations globalization
Belief and ethical challenges Retreat into
fundamental beliefs (religions)
7
05-144
21st Century
Exponential growth in knowledge and
technology Population growth, demographics,
migration and refugees Changes in local,
national, and international governance Climate
change and resource constraints
8
06-107
The Economist
The Search for Talent Why Its Getting Harder to
Find
The Economist, October 7, 2006
9
06-124
Challenge for the Global World
Establish pluralistic, tolerant, prosperous,
equitable, democratic, sustainable
societies. Reduce global inequality. Reduce and
control local, national, and international
conflicts and loss of life.
10
06-125
Globalization and Talent
A world of poachers
11
06-126
Talent Clusters
Technology hubs Idyllic settings Quality
university cities Family supporting
communities
12
06-108
Meritocracy
Give everybody a fair chance. This means
investing in childhood nutrition and preschool
education.
The Economist, October 7, 2006
13
04-152
WHAT DO WE KNOW?
14
03-080
Experience-Based Brain Development in the early
years of life sets neurological and biological
pathways that affect throughout life
Health
Learning
Behaviour
15
03-131
NEUROSCIENCE
16
03-013
The Hostage Brain
, Bruce S. McEwen and Harold M. Schmeck, Jr.,
1994.
17
04-039
Two Neurons
RECIPIENT NEURON
Axon
Synapse
SIGNAL-SENDING NEURON
Dendrite
18
04-212
Sound Vision Smell
Touch Proprioception Taste
Neal Halfon
19
03-078
Experience and Brain Development
Stimuli in early life switch on genetic pathways
that differentiate neuron function for the
sensory neurons (vision, sound, etc) critical
and sensitive periods.
Stimuli affect the formation of the connections
(synapses) among the billions of neurons
(sensitive periods).
The brain pathways that affect literacy,
behaviour, and health form early.
From studies in humans, monkeys and rats
20
04-042
SENSING PATHWAYS
21
03-079
Vision and Hearing Critical Period
Eye cataracts at birth prevent normal
development of vision neurons
in the occipital cortex (Hubel and Wiesel)
Cochlear defects at birth impair hearing
development (Rauschecker and ODonoghue)
22
03-012
Synaptic Density
At Birth
6 Years Old
14 Years Old
Rethinking the Brain, Families and Work
Institute, Rima Shore, 1997.
23
05-069
How Genes Know When to Strengthen a Synapse
Sci. Am. Feb. 2005.
24
01-003
Human Brain Development Language and Cognition
Language
Sensing
Pathways
Higher
(vision, hearing)
Cognitive Function
9
0
1
4
8
12
16
3
6
-3
-6
Months
Years
Conception
AGE
C. Nelson, in From Neurons to Neighborhoods, 2000.
25
06-021
Stress (Emotion)
Limbic HPA Pathway
26
02-066
The Fear Response
Visual Thalamus
Visual Cortex
Amygdala
Scientific American
The Hidden Mind, 2002, Volume 12, Number 1
27
03-002
Sensory Stimulus
Thalamus
Cortex
Amygdala
Hippocampus
-
-


Hypothalamus PVN
Cortisol
Cortisol
CRF
PIT
ACTH
Adrenal Cortex
LeDoux, Synaptic Self
28
05-212
Limbic HPA Pathway - Stress
Cortisol Over Production Behaviour,
depression, type II diabetes, malnutrition,
cardiovascular disease, memory, immune system,
drug and alcohol addiction Cortisol Under
Production Chronic fatigue syndrome,
fibromyalgia, immune system (autoimmune
disorders) rheumatoid arthritis, allergies,
asthma
29
05-213
Sensory Pathways and the Limbic HPA Pathway
Touch and Other Sensory Pathways in the Early
Period are Critical Pathways Rats Mothers
licking pups Monkeys Peer vs mother
rearing Humans Attachment --
Prematurity
30
06-134
The Myth of the Bell Curve Genetics
Nature versus nurture Genotype - Genetics
Phenotype - Epigenetics
31
04-144
Epigenetics and Brain Plasticity
Experience and regulation of gene
function Imprints environmental experiences on
the fixed genome Processes involve methylation
or acetylation Maternal behaviour affects DNA
expression Can be transmitted to offspring
32
06-105
Epigenetics
According to Dr. Szyf, epigenetic modifications
in response to maternal care occur early after
birth critical period. The effects are stable
and persist into adulthood.
The Economist, p. 89, Sept 23, 2006
33
03-089
Serotonin Transporter Gene Experience in Early
Life - Depression Age 26
Depression Risk
.70
SS
S Short Allele L Long Allele
.50
SL
LL
.30
No Abuse
Moderate Abuse
Severe Abuse
Early Childhood
A. Caspi, Science, 18 July 2003, Vol 301.
34
07-001
Early Experience and Brain Architecture
Affects gene expression and neural
pathways Shapes emotion, regulates temperament
and social development Shapes perceptual and
cognitive ability Shapes physical and mental
health and behaviour in adult life Shapes
physical activity (e.g. skiing, swimming,
etc.) Shapes language and literacy
capability
35
06-127
Summary of Brain Development
Environment gene interaction is
important. Critical and sensitive periods for
brain development in utero, infancy, and young
children.
36
03-063
HEALTH
37
00-063
Industrial Revolution and Population
Health in the West
Tom McKeown
- 25 public health
- 75 better nutrition
Robert Fogel
- Major factor better nutrition of children
- Early childhood sets risks for chronic
diseases of adults
- Better quality of population improved economic
growth
38
01-024
Economic Development and Health
Holland 1850 - 1910
170
1.8
168
Income/Capita
1.4
Height
166
Height (cm)
Income/Capita
Deaths/1,000 Population
Relative Index 18501
1
164
Deaths/1,000
0.6
162
Population
160
0.2
1850
1870
1890
1910
Year
39
00-019
Health Status Winnipeg 1986 and 1996
Education Level
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5
Mortality (Deaths/1,000)
1986
8.73
7.93
7.45
7.17
7.00
8.83
7.53
7.26
6.88
5.99
1996
Premature Deaths/1,000
5.39
4.69
4.10
4.07
3.85
1986
1996
5.35
4.13
3.95
3.65
2.92
40
97-092
Comparison of Socioeconomic and Health
Indices, Manitoba Regions
6
4
2
Health Status Index
0
-2
3
4
-1
1
2
5
0
Socioeconomic Risk Index
Norman Frohlich and Cam Mustard A Regional
Comparison
of Socioeconomic and Health Indices in a Canadian
Province
Soc. Sci. Med. Vol 42, Number 9, pp. 1273-1281,
1996
41
91-068
U.K. CIVIL SERVICE
Mortality - All Causes
16
Other
Clerical
12
Professional/
8
Executive
Cumulative Mortality
4
Administrative
0
0
2
4
6
8
10
Year of Follow-up
42
04-006
Swedish Longitudinal Study Early Child
Development (ECD) and Adult Health
Number of Adverse ECD Circumstances
1
2
4
0
3
Adult Health
Odds - Ratios
General Physical
1
1.39
1.54
2.08
2.66
1
1.56
1.53
2.91
7.76
Circulatory
Mental
1
1.78
2.05
3.76
10.27
Economic, family size, broken family and family
dissention
Lundberg, Soc. Sci. Med, Vol. 36, No. 8, 1993
43
00-069
Health Problems Related
to Early Life
Coronary Heart Disease Non-insulin Dependent
Diabetes Obesity Blood Pressure Aging and
Memory Loss Mental Health (depression)
44
01-010
"Follow up through life of successive
samples of birth has pointed to the
crucial influence of early life on
subsequent mental and physical health
and development."
Acheson, Donald -
Independent Inquiry into
,1998
Inequalities in Health
45
03-065
BEHAVIOUR
46
06-085
Early Development and Behaviour
Antisocial Attention-Deficit Hyperactivity
Disorder (ADHD) Autism Depression
47
01-008
"Longitudinal studies show most seriously
antisocial adolescents and adults who had
behavior problems during childhood showed as
antisocial behavior when they enter the school
systems."
Tremblay, R
. - Developmental Health and the
Wealth of Nations, 1999
48
04-127
High School Diploma
80
75.8
62.5
60

40
27.5
20
3.3
0
Never
Low
High
Chronic
Level of Aggression
Tremblay
49
02-008
Maltreatment at an early age can
have enduring negative effects on
a child's brain development and
function.
Martin Teicher
Scientific American, 2002
50
02-011
Behaviour
The aftermath of poor early child
development can appear as depression, anxiety,
suicidal thoughts or post- traumatic stress or
as aggression, impulsiveness, delinquency,
hyper- activity or substance abuse.
Martin Teicher
Scientific American, 2002
51
02-041
Substance Abuse and Childhood Abuse
Odds Ratios for Drug
and Alcohol Use
Exposure to
Drugs
Alcohol
Child Abuse

0 1.0 1.0
1 2.7 2.0
2 2.9 4.0
3 3.6 4.9
4 4.7 7.4
Scale 0 none


4 intense
52
01-012
Early Brain Development and Criminal Behaviour
Significant correlation with registered
criminality (teenage) appeared for language
development at 6, 18, and 24 months
Journal of Abnormal
Stattin, H. et al -
102 369, 1993
Psychology
53
06-137
Language Literacy
54
04-200
Early Child Development and Language
Brain development starts early first 8-12
months Sets capability for mastering multiple
languages Sets literacy and language
trajectory
55
02-001
Literacy Early Vocabulary Growth
1200
High SES
Middle SES
Cumulative Vocabulary
600
Low SES
0
12
16
20
24
28
32
36
Age - Months
B. Hart T. Risley, Meaningful Differences in
Everyday Experiences of Young American Children,
1995
56
06-106
OECD Levels of Literacy Competence - Level 3
Level 3 considered minimum for coping with the
demands of every day life and work in a complex
advanced society.
OECD, 2000
57
02-061
Document Literacy
1994 1998, Ages 16 to 65
Level 1 and 2 Level 4 and 5

Sweden
23
34.0
Canada
42
23.0
Australia
43
17.0
United States
48
18.0
Chile
85
3.0
Mexico
84
1.7
OECD
58
06-114
Socioeconomic Gradients for Document Literacy
Scores
Mean Scores
350
Sweden
U.S.
310
Finland
Internl Mean
U.S.
270
Canada
Canada
Australia
Australia
230
Sweden
Finland
190
0
3
9
5
7
15
13
11
19
17
Parents Education (years)
OECD, 2000
59
00-042
360
Sociocultural
Gradients for
Cuba
Language
320
Scores
By Country
Argentina
Chile
280
Brazil
Language Score
Colombia
Mexico
240
200
1
4
8
12
16
Parents' Education (Years)
60
05-066
Grade 3 Language Scores
Argentina _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Brazil _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Chile _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Cuba _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Mexico _ _ _ _ _ _ _
100
250
300
350
400
150
200
UNESCO, 1998
61
05-178
Literacy Levels for the Total Population USA
Prose
Document
Quantitative
Percent
Level
NALS, p. 17, 2002
62
05-173
Literacy Levels by Physical, Mental or Other
Health Conditions USA (Quantitative)
Health Problems
Mental or Emotional Problems
Long-term Illness
Percent
Level
NALS, p. 44, 2002
63
05-170
Percentages of Adults in Poverty, by Literacy
Level USA (Prose)
Level
Percent
NALS, p. 61, 2002
64
99-007
Socioeconomic Gradients for Low Receptive
Vocabulary, Children Aged 4 and 5
National Longitudinal Study of Children and
Youth, 1994
34
32
30
28
26
24
with
Ontario
22
low
20
receptive
18
vocabulary
16
14
Rest of
12
10
Canada
8
6
4
-2
-1
0
1
2
Socioeconomic Status
65
05-112
Human Data
Observational studies Cross-sectional
studies Longitudinal studies Interventions

66
05-208
Romanian Orphan Adoption U.K.
U.K. non-deprived adopted by 6 months compared
with Romanian children adopted after 6 mths up to
42 mths in deprived institutional
environments. Romanian children showed
substantial deficits in cognitive and social
functioning at 6 yrs of age. For some Romanian
children there was either biological programming
or neural damage.
Rutter et al, 2004
67
05-115
Romanian Adoption Project B.C. Scores at 10.5
Years
CB EA
LA IQ 108 99 85 Language
Score 106 99 88 Behaviour 13 9 43 CB
- Canadian Born EA - Early Adopted (within 4
months) LA - Late Adopted (8 months or
later)
L. Le Mare
68
05-209
U.S. Infant Health and Development Program (IHDP)
High quality centre based program in early child
development showed excellent results in early
child development.
Brooks-Gunn
69
03-005
WISC Verbal Scores Age 8 Low Birth Weight
Children in ECD Centres (Ages 1 to 3)
Low Birth Weight
16
All
14
Very Low
12
Low
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
Intention to
350 Days or
400 Days or
Treat
Less in Centre
More in Centre
Hill, Brooks-Gunn, Waldfogel. Dev. Psychol. 2003
July.
70
04-153
Abecedarian Study Reading
Effect Size
Primary Grades
Preschool
Preschool Primary Grades
1.2
0.8
0.4
0
Age 8
Age 12
Age 15
Age 21
Age at Testing
71
05-231
High Scope Age 40
Program No
Program
Arrested 5 times
36 53 Graduated High
School 63 45 Earnings gt
20K at age 40 60 40
Schweinhart, 2005
72
06-001
Success by Ten Early Child Development
Intervene early Intervene often Intervene
effectively
Ludwig and Sawhill, Brookings Institution 2006
73
05-029
Early Child Development and Parenting Centres
Offer from conception to school entry Provide
support for parents Learn parenting by
doing Provide non-parental care Link to and
integrate with primary schools Detect
development problems early
74
99-004
ECD and Experience-Based Brain Development
parent-oriented
child-oriented
1
2
3
4
5
6
- 0
age
Components of Early Childhood Development and
Parenting Centres
Universal available, accessible, affordable and
optional
Parental and non-parental care
Parent- and child-oriented
Quality early child development environments
Responsive relationships and parent
involvement Detect development problems early
75
06-034
NO DATA
NO PROBLEM
NO ACTION
A. Solari, 2006
76
03-116
OUTCOME MEASURES
77
03-085
Early Development Instrument (EDI)
Physical health and well-being
Social knowledge and competence

Emotional health/maturity
Language and cognitive development
Communication skills and general
knowledge
78
06-030
EDI Results Vancouver Districts
District Income EDI Results
scoring in bottom 10
1 12,000-24,000 34.5
2 24,000-37,000 27.5
3 37,000-49,000 21.5
4 49,000-62,000 15.0
5 62,000-74,000 8.5
79
05-113
Vancouver Grade 4 and Grade 7 Tests
Proportion of children failing to meet Grade 4
and Grade 7 test standards correlates strongly
with proportion of children vulnerable on the EDI
index at time of school entry.
80
06-148
Vancouver EDI Numeracy Grade 4
of Failing
Not Passing
Vulnerabilities Grade 4 Test
Grade 4 0 7.5 12.3 1
11.8 22.2 2-3 18.7
33.8 4-5 27.5 55.6
Hertzman, HELP, 2006
81
06-149
Vancouver EDI Reading
of Failing
Not Passing
Vulnerabilities Grade 4 Test
Grade 4 0 13.6 17.8 1
26.7 33.9 2-3 29.5
43.1 4-5 48.4 68.3
Hertzman, HELP, 2006
82
06-060
Proportion of Vulnerable Children AEDI - Perth
Suburb SES Vulnerability 1
2 Canningvale 5 17.6 7.8 Thornlie
4 17.8 10.9 Huntingdale
4 20.0 8.4 Gosnells 3 27.6
10.0 Langford 2 39.3 19.6 Maddington
1 46.9 29.7
Adapted from Brinkman, 2006
83
06-116
AEDI - SA
District Vulnerable on One or More
Domains Cooper Pedy 29.4 Leigh
Creek 42.1 Port Augusta 43.1 Roxby
Downs 15.6 Whyalla 27.4
AEDI S.Australia
84
06-062
The Stress Response and Quality ECD
In high quality ECD centres, childrens stress
levels (cortisol) at the end of the day should be
lower than in low quality centres. What aspects
of quality ECD programs have the most impact on
childrens cortisol levels? Are some aspects of
quality worth paying more attention to than
others in times of increasing economic pressure
on centres, what are the most important things
they need to be doing?
Sims, Parry, Guilfoyle, 2005
85
00-125
Changes in Salivary Sterol
Mid Afternoon - Mid Morning
Lower Negative Temperament
0.2
Higher Negative Temperament
0.15
0.1
Sterol Change
0.05
0
-0.05
-0.1
Lower Quality
Higher Quality
Childcare
Childcare
86
05-063
Daycare Quality Cortisol Levels (Individual
Measures)
0.6
Unsatisfactory
0.5
Averaged Cortisol (log10)
High Quality
Satisfactory
0.4
AM
PM
Time of Sampling
Sims et al. 2005.
87
06-123
POLICY
88
06-128
QUAD
Quality Universal Accessible Developmental

Government of Canada, 2002
89
06-033
Heckman

• Adverse family environments promote adult
  failure.
• Major economic and social problems can be traced
  to low levels of skill and ability in the
  population.

90
06-078
Heckman - Education

• Schools contribute little to closing test score
  gaps among children.
• Later schooling has little effect in reducing the
  gaps that appear early.
• Criminal rehabilitation and adult literacy
  programs have limited effect.

91
06-079
Heckman - Education

• Skill begets skill and early skill makes later
  skill acquisition easier.
• Remedial programs in adolescents and young adults
  are economically inefficient.

92
02-056
Policies to Foster Quality Human Capital
"We cannot afford to postpone investing in
children until they become adults nor can we
wait until they reach school - a time when it
may be too late to intervene."
Heckman, J., 2001
(Nobel Prize Economics, 2000)
93
06-110
Perry Preschool
Costs per individual 15,000 Benefits at age
40 Less grade failure 7,000 Higher
earnings 17,000 Less crime
171,000 Total benefits
195,000 (individual and society)
94
06-111
Two other programs
Abecedarian Chicago Child-
Parent Center Costs per individual
37,000 8,000 Benefits Less grade
failure 9,000 5,500 Higher
earnings 38,000 32,000 Less
crime 0 15,000 Total Benefits
140,000 54,000 (individual and society)
95
06-063
Public expenditures for children 0-17 years of
age, Sweden 1995, by age of child
96
05-134
GDP Grade 3 Language Scores
Language Score 351 247 242 240 236
Country Chile Mexico Colombia Brazil Cuba
GDP 9.930 6.769 6.347 5.928 3.100
UNESCO 1998
97
06-129
Cost Benefits and Politics
Democratic governments face elections every four
to five years. Full benefits of ECD programs in
adult life will take 25 years. Can you use
intermediate measures annually like EDI that
reflect future trajectories to show you are
making progress? In democracies, how do you get
the electorate to understand?
98
03-074
Rates of Return to Human Development Investment
Across all Ages
8
6
Pre-school Programs
Return Per Invested
School
4
R
Job Training
2
Pre- School
School
Post School
0
6
18
Age
Carneiro, Heckman, Human Capital Policy, 2003
99
01-050
The principle of free education for
school-age children is already entrenched
throughout the rich world there would be
nothing incongruous about extending it
further down the age range.
The Economist, pg 16, July 18, 1998
100
05-114
EXPERIMENTS IN CIVILIZATION ECONOMIC
GROWTH SOCIAL STABILITY AND ECD
101
05-216
ECD, Human Evolution and the Continuing
Evolution of Civilizations
Improve health and well-being of
populations. Improve ability, competence and
equity of populations. This could lead to equity
in literacy and income (reduce poverty). Help
establish stable, democratic, sustainable,
prosperous, tolerant, pluralistic, societies.
102
00-068
Integrated ECD Programs
Equality
Learning
Health
Behavior
Social Economic
Development
103
01-039
www.founders.net
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104
References
References

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105
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Experience-based Brain Development Scientific
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108
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