Examination of Spatial Patterns in Fire Data for the western Great Basin

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Examination of Spatial Patterns in Fire Data for
the western Great Basin

• John Nangle
• Applied Mathematics

Picture http//www.turbosquid.com/FullPreview/Ind
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Outline

• Introduction
• Data and Data Sources
• Analysis Methods
• Results and Discussion
• Conclusions and Future Work

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Introduction

• Preliminary at ISPE
• Gregg Garfin
• Don Falk
• Study potential interaction of climate and fire
  activity
• Better prediction capabilities
• Better able to focus resources
• Long-term analysis

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Data

• Two sets of fire data
• Acres burned and number of fires started
• 1º x 1º resolution over -124.5-101.5 and
  31.548.5
• Compiled by Westerling .et .al
• Collected from 1980 to 2004
• Bureau of Land Management
• U.S. Forest Service
• National Park Service
• Bureau of Indian Affairs
• Season determined to be April October in
  Westerling et. al.

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Data, cont.

• Climate Data
• 500mb heights
• NOAA Interactive Plotting and Analysis
• http//www.cdc.noaa.gov
• Download data in NetCDF format
• ENSO Index Values
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center
• http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

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Analysis Methods

• Formatting of fire data
• Format into data cube (lat,lon,mon)
• Multiply by cos(lat)
• Normalize grid cells along time series
• Format into hypercube (lat,lon,yr,mon)
• Create composite maps
• High/Low area burned
• High/Low number of starts

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Analysis Methods

• Create ENSO maps for fire data composites
• Fire data maps created for ENSO composite years
• Create anomaly maps
• Season mean - long-term mean
• Raw and normalized data
• PCA Analysis using SVD
• Eyeball metric

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Results and Discussion

• Raw data displays gross structure
• Normalized data contains more fine structure

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Results and Discussion

• Composite Difference Maps

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Results and Discussion

• PC plot and EOF maps

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Results and Discussion

• Plot burn years with ENSO
• Possible lag correlation
• Pattern
• LN, EL, LN High burn year
• Physical interpretation

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Conclusion and Future Work

• Examining climate and fire interactivity
• Possible connection with ENSO
• Lag relationship with ENSO
• Correct for burnable area/grid cell
• Examine fire start data in more detail

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References

• A.L. Westerling, A. Gershunov, T.J. Brown, D.R.
  Cayan, M.D. Dettinger. Climate and wildfire in
  the western united states. Journal of the
  American Meteorological Society, 84(5)595-604,
  2005
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association. PSD
  interactive plotting and analysis page. Accessed
  Nov. 30, 2007. lthttp//www.cdc.noaa.gov/cig-bin/P
  ublicData/getpage.plgt
• National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association.
  Climate prediction center monitoring and data.
  Accessed Nov. 30, 2007. http//www.cpc.ncep.noaa.
  gov
• USDA. Office of Inspector General. Audit Report
  Forest Service Large Fire Suppression Costs.
  (rept. 08601-44-SF). Washington Government.
  Printing Office. 2006.

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Questions