Patterns of Violent Crime in Russia

1
Patterns of Violent Crime in Russia

• Natalia S. Gavrilova
• Leonid A. Gavrilov
• Victoria G. Semyonova
• Galina N. Evdokushkina
• Alla E. Ivanova
• Center on Aging, NORC/University of Chicago
• Central Research Public Health Institute, Moscow,
  Russia

2
List of Violent Crimes

• Intentional Murder
• Assault (simple and aggravated)
• Intentional Bodily Harm (light, medium,
  serious) in Russian Criminal Code
• Rape/Sexual assault
• Robbery (simple and aggravated)
• Grabezh and Razboy in Russian Criminal
  Code

3
Data Resources on Violent Crime

• Statistics of violent crimes registered by police
  (collected by the Russian Ministry of Interiors).
  Also submitted to the UN World Crime Surveys.
• Statistics of arrestees collected by police.
• Statistics of homicide mortality collected by
  Goskomstat. Submitted to the WHO.
• Surveys of prison inmates.
• Victimization surveys. International Crime
  Victimization Surveys (conducted in Moscow).

4
Trends of Intentional Murders in Russia and the
United States Data from the UN World Crime
Surveys
5
Trends of Reported Rapes in Russia and the
United States Data from the UN World Crime
Surveys
6
Trends of Reported Robberies in Russia and the
United States Data from the UN World Crime
Surveys
7
Crime Reporting () in Russia and the United
StatesData from the International Crime
Victimization Survey
8
Annual Victimization Rates () in Five Countries
in 1996
9
Annual Victimization Rates () for Non-Fatal
Crimes in Moscow.
10
Mean Age of Offenders in PrisonsData from the
1999 Survey of Penal Population
11
Trends in Homicide Rates for Young and
Middle-Aged AdultsData from Russian Vital
Statistics
Males
Females
12
Trends in Homicide Male-Female Ratio for Young
and Middle-Aged Adults in Russia
13
Age Profile of Male Homicide Mortality in Russia
14
Age Profile of Female Homicide Mortality in Russia
15
Number of Serious Crimes in 1995 per 10,000
PopulationData from the WebAtlas Project
(http//sci.aha.ru/ATL)
16
Proportion of Sexual Crimes in All Serious
Crimes in 1995 Data from the WebAtlas Project
(http//sci.aha.ru/ATL)
17
Top Five Causes of Male External Mortality in
2001
Russia Moscow
Suicide Accidental Falls (!?)
Undetermined Injury Undetermined Injury
Homicide All Other Accidental Causes
Accidental Poisoning by Alcohol Homicide
All Other Accidental Causes Suicide
18
Age Profiles of Mortality from Accidental
Poisoning by AlcoholData from Russian Vital
Statistics
Males
Females
19
We Need a Multivariate Analysis of Violent Crime

• Pridemore W.A. (2000). Social Structure and
  Homicide in Post-Soviet Russia. A Dissertation.
  School of Criminal Justice, SUNY, Albany, NY.
• Andrienko Y. (2001). Understanding the crime
  growth in Russia during the transition period A
  criminometric approach. HSE Economic Journal,
  5(2) 194-220.
• Fajnzylber P., Lederman D., Loayza N. (2002).
  What causes violent crime? European Economic
  Review, 46 1323-1357.

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Factors Related to Homicide Dynamics in
RussiaAccording to the Study by Andrienko, 2001

• Positively Related Factors
• Criminal experience (one-year lag of homicide
  rate)
• Percentage of Youth
• Alcohol Consumption
• Income inequality (Gini coefficient),
• Consumption of Illicit Drugs
• Geographical Lattitude and Longitude
• Negatively Related Factors
• Education
• Police Efficiency (Police Clearance Rate)
• Unemployment (!?), Real Income, Net Nuptiality

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Conclusions (I)

• The rates of violent crimes increased during the
  transition period in Russia (perhaps with the
  exception of rapes). Homicide has became the top
  cause of external mortality for women in Russia.
  
• Patterns of violent crime in Russia are strongly
  affected by age and sex. Homicide risk is the
  highest at middle ages 30-55 years. The use of
  aggregated indices, which ignore age and sex
  structure could be misleading.
• Both homicide victims and offenders are on
  average older in Russia than in the United
  States.

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Conclusions (II)

• Regional pattern of homicide mortality shows
  West-East and South-North (European part of
  Russia) gradient of homicide mortality.
• Alcohol is still an important factor of violent
  crime and homicide in particular. However, the
  role of alcohol as a factor of violent crime is
  declining.
• Economic and structural changes during the
  transition period (increase in poverty and income
  inequality, decline in GDP) appears to be
  important factors of violent crime and will
  largely determine the future direction of violent
  crime in Russia. However these trends may be
  partially alleviated by population aging.