Joint Data Support Data Process

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State of the Analysis Community Jim
Bexfield OSD/PAE Director, Study Analytic
Support Division 9 May 2007
v4-2
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Agenda

• About the Community
• Business Plan, Challenges and some Initiatives
• How we can work together

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What We Do

• We perform analysis to support
• senior level defense decisions (e.g., planning,
  programming, and acquisition)
• the operational commander (e.g., assess plans)

Joint Focus
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What We Do
Force Planning Construct (source 2006 QDR)
Much of what we do involves assessing DoDs
ability to implement the Defense Strategy
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Examples of Decisions We Inform

• What capabilities do we need to find and
  neutralize WMD? (Catastrophic Study)
• What capabilities do we need to execute our war
  on terror strategy? (GWOT X-Game)
• What is the best mix of tactical air forces?
  (Joint Air Dominance Study)
• What is the best composition (number, mix, and
  characteristics) of the future tanker fleet?
  (Tanker Analysis of Alternatives)
• What capabilities does DoD need to support civil
  authorities when responding to a domestic
  disaster? (Homeland Defense Study)
• Are our projected future forces sufficient to
  meet the defense strategy? (Operational
  Availability Studies)

Shape Leadership Decisions and actions Help
DoD invest and use its scarce resources wisely.
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Who We Are
Navy (N81)
Air Force (A9)
Marines (MCCDC)
Army (CAA, G3, G8)
Analysis Community
Joint Staff (J4, J5, J7, J8)
OSD (PAE, Policy, PR, ATL, NII, Intel)
Defense Agency (DIA, NSA, DISA, DTRA)
COCOM
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How we manage our Community The Analytic Agenda

• DoD-wide agreement to make joint analysis efforts
  more effective, efficient, and relevant
• Based in Current Year (COCOM operational
  planning of current forces)
• Based in Future Years (Services, JS, and OSD
  capability assessments of future forces)

• Improved Tools
• Coordinate development
• Focus on hard to model areas
• Promote good MS practices
• Encourage reuse

• Improved Data
• Common starting point for analysis
• Better transparency and consistency
• Faster analysis using analysis-ready data sets

• Improved Transparency
• Increase awareness of completed and ongoing
  analysis
• Reduce redundancy, increase synergism

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Analytic Agenda Governance
Deputys Advisory Working Group (DAWG)
Policy, PAE, JS
Joint Analytic Data Management Steering Committee
(JADM SC)
Policy, PAE, JS
Analysis Community Stakeholders (OSD, Joint
Staff, COCOMs, Services)
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Analytic Agenda Productshttps//jds.pae.osd.mil
Managed by Joint Data Support (JDS) on behalf of
the analytic community
Data
Tools
Studies
Components are expected to use Analytic Agenda
products when conducting analyses supporting
their planning, programming, and acquisition
activities
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Analysis MS Tool Registry

• Collection of tools, documentation, data, and
  model POCs
• Focus on tools in use or in development
  (government sponsored)
• Includes information on user groups and recent
  uses with study POCs
• Benefits
• Promotes collaboration among model users
• Encourages reuse
• Provides senior leadership visibility of
  investments DoD wide
• Access via
• JDS Classified Website (SIPR) https//jds.pae.osd
  .smil.mil
• If you do not have SIPR access Contact JDS at
  jdsWebmaster_at_osd.mil

Provides Visibility, Accessibility and
Traceability of Analysis Communitys MS Tools
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Collaboration and Outreach

• Wiki and Forum sites on
• Scenario Development
• Insurgency and Counterinsurgency (COIN) Analysis
• Irregular Warfare Analysis
• Access via classified website at
• forum url https//jdsforums.pae.osd.smil.mil
• wiki url https//jdstest.pae.osd.smil.mil/jdswiki
  

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Keeping the Community Informed (Examples)

• A professional society, The Military Operations
  Research Society (MORS) includes DoD, Industry,
  and Academia
• Annual Symposium in June
• 4-5 workshops each year (recent examples)
• Analysis of Non-Traditional Security Challenges
  Methods Tools
• Agent-Based Models Analytical Tools in support
  of Stability Ops
• Publications Newsletter (PHALANX), Journal, and
  professional books
• Joint Collaboration Analysis Conference (JCAC)
• Semi-annual (spring, fall) led by Joint Staff
• Focused on combatant commander analysis needs and
  capabilities

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Agenda

• About the Community
• Business Plan, Challenges and some Initiatives
• How we can work together

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Analysis Community Business Plan

• Background
• Scope (e.g., Who is in the community?)
• Vision (e.g., Where do you want to be in 2026
  with respect to methods, tools, data,
  intellectual capability, and research?)
• Current capabilities (e.g., Where are you now for
  the same elements?)
• Management
• Governance (membership, organizations, decision
  making process, resources)
• Sharing of information, intra- and
  inter-community
• Needs and Initiatives
• Key gaps (e.g., significant shortfalls in
  methods, tools, data, intellectual capital,
  research)
• Key on-going and proposed activities
• Goals, products, schedule
• Characterize funding/ Level of Effort (if
  possible)
• A prioritized list of projects to pursue

Currently in-review by the community
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Paradigm Shift
New Paradigm Broad Range of Operations
Old Paradigm MCO Focus
War 2
Peak MCO
demand
Short Duration Surge
War 1
Demand
Demand
Long Surge
Steady State
MCO
Stability Ops
Routine Ops WOT
Lesser Contingencies
Time
Time
Homeland Defense
Homeland Defense
DoD built to support two nearly simultaneous
major theater wars
Transformed DoD must address traditional,
irregular, catastrophic, and disruptive challenges
New Focus Develop the tools needed to analyze a
broader range of global challenges
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Some Gaps Identified in the Plan

• Traditional (Conventional Warfare)
• Ability to analyze a balanced view of traditional
  warfare
• Ability to capture the value of enabling
  capabilities (e.g., C4ISR, Logistics)
• Irregular/Catastrophic/Disruptive (ICD)
  Challenges
• Understanding Human Behavior as it applies to
  military operations associated with the War on
  Terror
• Credible tools and data to analyze the war on
  terror and other irregular warfare challenges
• Credible tools and data to analyze Stability,
  Security, Transition and Reconstruction operations

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Some Initiatives that Address Gaps

• Storm /Storm Plus new Air Force campaign model
  with enhanced naval functionality for better
  balance (Air Force Navy)
• Lebanon-Hezbollah Conflict Study inform
  analysis approaches for land combat (Army)
• Unclassified Defense Planning Scenarios support
  work with allies (Joint Staff)
• Human Behavior Research for MS Better
  understanding of social/cultural, psychological,
  political, economic, information operation
  domains (PAE)
• Military-Focused Irregular Warfare Model (Navy)
• VVA of Agent Based Models (Marine Corps)
• GWOT X-Game Study Used wargame technology in
  analysis (PAE)

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Interlinking Initiatives to Address a Gap
GAP Credible tools and data to analyze the war
on terror and other irregular warfare challenges
Initiatives
GWOT X-Game
GWOT Analysis
VVA of Agent Based Models
Military- focused Irregular Warfare Model
PMESII/DIMEFIL Models Tools
Underlying Social Science Knowledge
Human Behavior Research for MS
PMESII-Political, Military, Economic, Social,
Infrastructure, and Information DIMEFIL
Diplomacy, Intelligence, Military, Economics,
Finance, Information, and Law Enforcement
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Agenda

• About the Community
• Business Plan, Challenges and some Initiatives
• How we can work together

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What we are trying to do

• Increase the collaboration among analytical
  organizations developing and using tools
• Facilitate understanding of emerging challenge
  areas
• Reduce unnecessary redundancy in MS research,
  development and use
• Provide the best available data, subject to
  security caveats, to the analyst using the model
• Promote the appropriate use of MS
• Ensure a strong cadre of analysts are properly
  trained in the use of MS

Help the Department conduct better analysis
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How we can work together

• Take advantage of our products
• Data
• MS tool registry
• Collaboration forums
• Help us improve analysis MS
• Share your ideas on how to solve our challenges -
  GWOT, Countering WMD . . .
• Send your experts to participate in our workshops
  (e.g., MORS www.mors.org)
• Tell us about your capabilities

• For more information contact
• Terence Peterson, Modeling Simulation
  Coordination Office (MS CO), (terence.peterson.ct
  r_at_osd.mil)
• Bill Sentlinger, Joint Data Support (JDS),
  (billy.sentlinger.ctr_at_osd.mil)

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Backup
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A Few Examples

• Traditional campaign modeling
• Ability to assess the impact of Command and
  Control at the campaign level
• Improved linkage of logistics to warfight results
• Non Traditional Warfare (NTW)
• Understand phenomenology
• Develop measures of merit that include risk
• Develop a robust set of NTW scenarios for
  analysis
• Develop analytical approaches to assess the
  national planning scenarios
• Explore new ways to model adaptive adversary
  behavior (cultural modeling)

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A Few Examples (cont.)

• Visibility, use, and access to services/data
• Develop ability to translate operational data
  into MS
• Develop automated methods to link models from
  feeder models into campaign model inputs
• Identify and implement improved data validity
  schema
• Identify an appropriate migration path to future
  computing environments (e.g., Global Information
  Grid)
• Identify ways technology can enhance our ability
  to perform analysis verify, understand,
  manipulate data
• Better methods for capabilities analysis (e.g.
  top-down portfolios tools with multiple levels of
  zoom)

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Research Initiative (Continued) Understanding
Human Behavior
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DoDs Evolving Analytical Challenge
Increasing complexity of the new strategic
environment
New Focus Addresses a broader range of global
challenges