Section I: Just How Bad Is It?

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Section I Just How Bad Is It?
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Four in five voters think the state of
Californiais on the wrong track.
Would you say that things in
are generally headed in the right direction or do
you feel that things are pretty seriously off on
the wrong track? Source FMMA Statewide
Survey, June 2009
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These negative feelings are at a historic high
trumping even the weeks before the recall
election.
Percent that believes California is on the wrong
track
Would you say that things in
are generally headed in the right direction or do
you feel that things are pretty seriously off on
the wrong track? Source FMMA Statewide
Surveys 2002-Present
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Overwhelming majorities of all demographic groups
think Californiais on the wrong track.
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Continued
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Not surprisingly, most voters disapprove of the
job performance of state legislators in both
parties and the Governor
Please tell me whether you approve or disapprove
of the overall job performance of _____________.
Source FMMA Statewide Survey, June 2009
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...and less than one-quarter think Sacramento
can be trusted to do what is right on a regular
basis.
How much of the time do you think you can trust
the government in Sacramento to do what is
right?
Total 23
Source PPIC Survey, May 2009
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These sentiments have even come to affect
voters perception of their own state legislators.
Job Approval for Your State Senator
Would you say you generally approve or disapprove
of the job __________ is doing? Source FMMA
Statewide Voter Survey, May 2009
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Of course, these sentiments must be understood in
a context where voters feel disconnected from
their legislators.
Can you tell me the name of the person who
represents your area in the California State
Senate?
Only 7 of California voters are able to
correctly name their state senator.
Source FMMA Statewide Voter Survey, May 2009
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Voters regard the state budget deficit and the
economy as the top problems facing the state, but
they are also very worried about cuts to vital
local services.
Id like to mention some issues that some people
say may be problems facing Californians. Please
tell me whether you think it is an extremely
serious problem, very serious problem, somewhat
serious problem, or not too serious a problem for
California residents. Split Sample, Source
FMMA Spring 2009 California voter surveys
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Voters feel better abouttheir personal financial
situation than about the state economy or budget
I am going to read you a list of different
aspects of life in California. Please tell me
whether you currently have a generally positive
or generally negative feeling about that item.
Source FMMA Statewide Voter Survey, January 2009
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but few are optimistic about their circumstances
looking forward.
I am going to read you a list of different
aspects of life in California. Please tell me if
you expect that item to be better or worse
twelve months from now.
Source FMMA Statewide Voter Survey, January 2009
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Section II The State Budget Crisis
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Voters believe overspending, partisanship,
special interests and tax loopholes are largely
to blame for the budget crisis.
Please tell me whether you think it is a major
cause, a minor cause, or not a cause at all of
Californias problems in passing a budget.
I am going to mention several factors that some
people say have contributed to the states
inability to balance its budget. Please tell me
whether you think it is a major cause, a minor
cause, or not a cause at all of Californias
problems in passing a budget. Split Sample.
Source FMMA Statewide Voter Survey. May 2009
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According to a recent Field Poll, two-thirds of
voters choose spending cuts over tax increases to
address the state budget deficit
Should the states current budget deficit be
dealt with mostly through spending cuts or mostly
through tax increases? Source The Field Poll,
April 2009
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but voters support a variety of specific
revenue-generating proposals, with taxes on
cigarettes and alcohol the most popular.
I am going to read you some of the proposals they
are considering. Please tell me whether it
sounds like something you would support or oppose
as a strategy for balancing the state budget.
Split Sample. Source FMMA Statewide Voter
Survey, June 2009
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When given an option, half support a combination
of reduced spending and new taxes and fees to
balance the state budget.
We should balance the budget
OR
OR
Im going to read you three statements about the
state budget. Please tell me which statement
comes closest to your opinion. Source FMMA
Statewide Voter Survey, June 2009
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Section III Where Do We Go From Here?
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Voters want major changes to the State budget
process, but are divided on how to go about it.
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Nearly four in five voters are ready for
significant changes to the California budget
process.
Overall, do you think the state budget process
in California, in terms of both revenues and
spending is in need of major changes, minor
changes, or do you think it is fine the way it
is?
Source PPIC Survey, March 2009
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However, only a narrow plurality supports
reducing the two-thirds vote in the State
Legislature needed to pass a budget...
As you may know, the California state
constitution requires that two-thirds of the
state legislature agree to a state budget for it
to pass. Do you think its a good idea or a bad
idea to replace the two-thirds vote requirement
with a 55 majority vote for the state
legislature to pass a budget?
Source PPIC Survey, March 2009
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...and voters are even less supportiveof making
it easier for the State Legislature to raise
taxes.
Favor/Oppose a simple majority vote of the State
Legislature to increase state taxes and fees?
Favor/Oppose 2/3rds requirement to increase
state taxes?
Source The Field Poll, April 2009
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An alternative with great appeal for voters is to
shift control and funding for local services from
the state level to the local level.
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Despite their negative view of the state, voters
express a much different opinion when asked about
their city or town.
Would you say that things in
are generally headed in the right direction or do
you feel that things are pretty seriously off on
the wrong track? Source FMMA Statewide Voter
Surveys, May and June 2009
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Similarly, voters have a higher regardfor local
officials than their own state senator or state
legislators generally.
Your elected city, county, and school district
officials
Would you say you generally approve or disapprove
of the job __________ is doing? Source FMMA
Statewide Voter Survey, May 2009
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Voters also consider local officials more
trustworthy than state officials.
In general, whom do you trust more to make
decisions about funding and management of public
services
In general, whom do you trust more to make
decisions about funding and management of public
services Source FMMA Statewide Voter Survey,
May 2009
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Voters want local government to be more active
because they regard it as more accountable and
relevant to their lives.
I am going to read you a list of statements. Id
like you to tell me whether you generally agree
or disagree. Split SampleSource FMMA
Statewide Voter Survey, May 2009.
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Over the past several election cycles, voters
have supported numerous local ballot measures
to fund vital services provided by cities,
counties, schools and special districts.
Source Data on Local Ballot Measures is compiled
from the website Californiacityfinance.com
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Juxtaposing the success rate of local ballot
measures against job approval ratings for the
Governor and State Legislature shows an
interesting trend.
Job Approval Ratings
Source Job Approval Ratings are from the Field
Poll and data on local ballot measures is
compiled from the website Californiacityfinance.c
om
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Voters find many aspects of proposals to increase
local governments ability to raise revenue
appealing.

• Nearly four in five support provisions that would
  allow local education and public safety officials
  more control over how funding is used locally.
• 71 support prohibitions on funds from local
  ballot measures being taken by state government.
• 64 are more inclined to back a measure that
  requires higher accountability standards for
  local governments that raise taxes at a lower
  threshold.

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Section IV Final Thoughts
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Final Thoughts

• Voters are following the budget crisis closely,
  and are concerned about how cuts to vital
  services will impact them at the local level.
• When a local ballot measures can be shown to
  maintain or improve local services public
  safety, education, parks, hospitals, etc.
  voters often remain willing to support an
  incremental tax increase.
• Ineffective statewide leadership has led voters
  to look increasingly to local government, and has
  created an opportunity to dramatically change the
  relationship between Sacramento and local
  governments.

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Final Thoughts, continued

• Voters respond strongly to the theme of
  empowering local voters and local service
  providers to maintain vital services and protect
  the quality of life in a community.
• The electorate seems poised to accept reforms to
  state law that will enhance the power of local
  government, however, emphasizing greater voter
  authority to determine priorities at the local
  level is essential.
• In principle, most voters support reducing the
  two-thirds vote threshold for local taxes, but it
  is unclear what voters ultimate level of support
  will be amidst other reform proposals that may be
  presented to them.

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For more information, contact
DAVID METZ
1999 Harrison St., Suite 1290Oakland, CA
94612Phone [phone] Fax [phone]
dave_at_fmma.com