Estimation of a Weekend Location Choice Model for Calgary

1
Estimation of a Weekend Location Choice Model for
Calgary

• KJ Stefan, City of Calgary
• JDP McMillan, City of Calgary
• CR Blaschuk, City of Calgary
• JD Hunt, University of Calgary

2
Overall model context

• Weekend Household Activity Model (WHAM)
• Personal weekend travel
• Tour-based microsimulation model
• Emphasis on activities
• Partial treatment of household groups
• Same household survey as RTM
• Sampling evenly across all 7 days
• 2342 weekend households

3
Overall model context

• Part of a model system for Calgary
• Weekday regional travel model (RTM)
• Personal travel
• Aggregate model with full nested logit structure
• Weekday commercial vehicle model (CVM)
• Commercial vehicle travel
• Tour-based microsimulation model

4
Model goals

• Part of 24/7 system evaluation
• Benefits to all users
• Emissions
• Analysis of retail and entertainment facilities
• Microsimulation input
• Learning for weekday activity model

5
24/7 Model Coverage
6
Overall model structure
Tour Generation and membership
Tour Purpose
Tour Mode
Trip and stop properties (including location
choice)
7
Two Types of Tours

• Growing
• Stops organically grow, chosen one after
  another
• Hybrid Rubber-banding
• Primary Stop chosen
• Optional Intermediate Stops
• Subsequent stops chosen as with growing tours

8
Growing Tours
Home
Stop
?
Stop
9
Growing Tours
Home
Stop
Stop
10
Growing Tours
Home
Stop
Stop
?
Stop
11
Growing Tours
Home
Stop
Stop
Stop
Stop
12
Hybrid Tours
Home
Primary Stop
13
Hybrid Tours
Home
Intermediate Stop
?
Primary Stop
14
Hybrid Tours
Home
Intermediate Stop
Primary Stop
15
Hybrid Tours
Home
Intermediate Stop
?
Primary Stop
Stop
16
Hybrid Tours
Home
Intermediate Stop
Primary Stop
Stop
17
Hybrid Tours
Home
Intermediate Stop
Stop
Primary Stop
?
Stop
18
Tour Purposes

• Hybrid Treatment
• Out of Town
• Serve Passenger
• Work
• School
• Religious/Civic
• Exercise

• Growing Treatment
• Shopping
• Entertainment / Leisure
• Social
• Eating

19
Trip and stop properties
Stop purpose
Stop location
Trip mode
Stop duration
20
Model estimation

• Two-stage estimation
• Location attractors
• Linear regressions by activity
• Large number of zonal attributes
• Location choice logit model
• Combines attractors with travel and group
  information
• In progress auto complete (most important one at
  65 of trips)

21
Zonal attributes

• Population and demographic
• Age ranges, incomes, car ownership
• Education spaces by level
• Employment by 8 industry types
• Park in hectares
• Special attractors
• Land use typology (calculated)

22
Special attractors

• Institutions
• 3 major post secondary institutions
• 3 major hospitals
• Airport
• Entertainment
• Arts and Culture District
• Stampede, Zoo, Heritage Park
• Big Box retail

23
Land use types

• 5 land use types
• Low-density
• Residential
• Commercial (retail)
• Industrial
• Employment node
• Calculated based on employment and population
  (mix and density)

24
(No Transcript)
25
Low density Residential Commercial Industrial Empl
oyment node
26
Attractors Work
27
Attractors - Work
28
Other attractor functions

• Serve Passenger
• Retail, airport, hospitals, education
• School
• Student spaces especially PSE spaces
• Religious/Civic
• Population (75, income), education, retail
• Exercise
• Park space, employment, population (65, income),
  student spaces

29
Other attractor functions

• Shop
• Retail (esp. commercial zones, big box)
• Entertainment/Leisure
• Attractors, population (15-24, income), retail
• Social
• Population (15-34, 65, income), service, retail
• Eating
• Retail (commercial, residential), population

30
Logit estimation

• Combining regressed attractors with travel costs
  and group properties
• Generalised travel cost (time and distance)
• Presenting one of a set of models
• Auto mode
• Growing portion of tours only
• Represents around 65 of weekend travel

31
Home
Primary Stop
Stop
Stop
Growing tour or hybrid tour after primary stop
Stop
32
Home
Primary Stop
Stop
To cost
Stop
Stop
33
Home
Primary Stop
Stop
To cost Return cost
Stop
Stop
34
Home
Primary Stop
Stop
To cost Return cost Enclosed angle
Stop
Stop
35
Home
Primary Stop
Stop
To cost Return cost Enclosed angle Attractor
Stop
Stop
36
Auto Stop Location Parameters
37
Auto Stop Location Parameters
38
Example groups

• One adult (30)
• One adult, one kid (8)
• Two adults
• Two adults, two children (8 and 12)
• One adult, one senior (82, nondriving)

39
(No Transcript)
40
Example trips

• One adult
• lt25, shop
• 25-29, entertainment
• 30, shop
• 30, eating
• Low income, 30, entertainment

41
(No Transcript)
42
Auto Stop Location Parameters
43
Auto Stop Model

• Sensible results
• Costs lest significant for social trips
• Return to home costs important, but not as
  important as to costs
• Less mobile members of group add to costs of
  location choices

44
Next Steps

• Estimate growing tour location choice models for
  remaining modes (bike and other)
• Estimate models for primary stop and intermediate
  stop location choices

45
QUESTIONS

• Please Use Microphone