Peak Oil The Forward End of the Curve

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Peak Oil The Forward End of the Curve

• Presentation to the
• City of Madison
• April 10, 2006
• By
• Mark Daugherty
• Focus On Energy
• Renewable Energy Business Development

This presentation is funded in part by Focus on
Energy.
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Oil and Gas Supply
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Global oil discoveries are following a typical
bell shaped curve.
2003 first year since 1920s no single discovery gt
500 million barrels. (No single field found large
enough to meet demand for 1 week.)
Note Global data shown here is reported by
ExxonMobil, it is consistent with many others.
See Harry J. Longwell, executive VP of
Exxon-Mobil corporation, http//www.energybulletin
.net/primer.php, http//www.feasta.org/documents/w
ells/contents.html?one/longwell.html and
C.J.Campbell, ASPO http//www.peakoil.net/,
http//www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsle
tter35_200311.pdf IHS Consultants at
http//www.ihsenergy.com/
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Global conventional oil production peak estimated
in 2006 to 2008 timeframe.
Data
Forecast
From the Association for the Study of Peak Oil
(ASPO) 2004 See also Global Oil and Gas
Depletion an Overview, R.W. Bently, Energy
Policy 30 (2002) 189-205. Congressman Rosco
Bartlett (R-6-MD), Congressional Record, March
14, 2005, Pages H1409-H1414. http//www.bartlett.h
ouse.gov/SupportingFiles/documents/PeakOil.pdf
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Current demand is beginning to hit physical
supply constraints
Gap
V1
V2
V1 V2
From the Association for the Study of Peak Oil
(ASPO) 2002. Excellent Summary on Peak Oil
Congressman Rosco Bartlett (R-6-MD),
Congressional Record, March 14, 2005, Pages
H1409-H1414. http//www.bartlett.house.gov/Support
ingFiles/documents/PeakOil.pdf
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Natural Gas US, Canada Mexico Discoveries
and Production
Discovery curve shifted 23 years.
V1
V2
V1 V2
See http//www.peakoil.net/JL/JeanL.html
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(No Transcript)
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In 2002 Oil and Gas made up 62 of global primary
energy supply.
Source International Energy Agency (IEA)
http//www.iea.org/statist/index.htm
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What about non - conventional fossil fuel
supplies?

• Technologies include tar sands, oil shale,
  heavy oil, gas to liquids technology
• Like trying to drink through a smaller and
  smaller straw.
• Lower energy return, Extensive environmental
  damage.
• Strip mining heating or steam injection.
• 1.5-2 tons material processed per barrel of oil.
• Bottom line higher cost, smaller volume

10 times current global coal mining required to
meet present oil needs with tar sands or oil
shale.
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Historical Primary Energy Substitution
http//www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/snowmass5Fna
kicenovic2Epdf
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Possible Global Energy Supply (2005-2100)
Coal
Gas
Oil
Renewable
Nuclear
For background data see http//www.eia.doe.gov/
, http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.ht
ml, http//www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalres
erves.htm, http//www.iea.org/,
http//www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/ura
nium-reserves.htm, http//www.peakoil.net/
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Possible Cumulative Global Energy Supply
(2005-2100)
For background data see http//www.eia.doe.gov/
, http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.ht
ml, http//www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalres
erves.htm, http//www.iea.org/,
http//www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/ura
nium-reserves.htm, http//www.peakoil.net/
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Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas
emissions driving climate change.
Minimum Artic Ice 1979
Minimum Artic Ice 2005
Ice 43 thinner in 1996 than in 1976
Inage MSNBC, Associated Press, Sept. 29,
2005 http//www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9527485/ Thinning
Professor Peter Wadhams, Scott Polar Research
Institute, Cambridge, UK, BBC news, Wednesday,
27 March, 2002 http//news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/
nature/1894740.stm
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Antartica - Collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf
31 January, 2002
5 March, 2002

• 3,250 km2 of shelf area disintegrated.
• Glacier speeds increased 250 after collapse.

National Snow and Ice Data Center http//nsidc.org
/iceshelves/larsenb2002/ http//nsidc.org/news/pre
ss/20031219_speed_up.html
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Extent of ice melt in Greenland, 1992 and 2002
John P. Holdren, Harvard University, Co-Chair
National Commission on Energy Policy, 2005
Institutional Investor Summit on Climate
Risk,United Nations New York 10 May 2005,
citing Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004
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Impact of Melting Ice
GIS Greenland Ice Sheet WAIS West Antarctic
Ice Sheet EAIS East Antarctic Ice
Sheet (Estimated time scale is several centuries.)
7 m
12 m
70 m
From a presentation by Richard B. Alley, U. of
Pennsylvania, Cited by John P. Holdren, Harvard
University, Co-Chair National Commission on
Energy Policy, 2005 Institutional Investor Summit
on Climate Risk,United Nations New York 10
May 2005, citing Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
2004
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Greenhouse Gas emissions for advanced generation
(2010-2020) technologies.
Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Electricity
Generation Chains, Joseph Spadaro, Lucille
Langlois and Bruce Hamilton, IEA Bulliten
42/2/2000
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Three options to meet demand for carbon-neutral
energy

• Fossil fuel with carbon sequestration
• 25 billion metric tons of CO2 produced annually
• Equal to the volume of Lake Superior
• 1 leak rate would nullify sequestration in a
  century
• Nuclear power
• 10 TW of nuclear power a new 1-GWe plant every
  2 days for the next 50 years.
• Then terrestrial uranium exhausted in 10 years.
• Renewable energy
• Exploitable hydroelectric lt 0.5 TW
• Tides and ocean currents lt 2 TW
• Geothermal energy ltlt 12 TW
• Wind potential 2-4 TW
• Solar 120,000 TW strikes the Earth
• 10 efficient solar energy farm covering 1.6
  of the U.S. land area would meet the countrys
  entire domestic energy needs (2005 Global
  Consumption 14 TW)
• Comparable with the land area covered by the
  nations federally numbered highways.

Source US DOE BASIC RESEARCH NEEDS FOR SOLAR
ENERGY UTILIZATION Report on the Basic Energy
Sciences Workshop on Solar Energy Utilization,
April 18-21, 2005
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Possible Cumulative Global Supply with Coal
Restriction
For background data see http//www.eia.doe.gov/
, http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.ht
ml, http//www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalres
erves.htm, http//www.iea.org/,
http//www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/ura
nium-reserves.htm, http//www.peakoil.net/
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It will be difficult to meet current energy
demand growth indefinitely.
Demand at 1.8/yr growth
Total energy supply from previous slide.
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Effort is required on 2 fronts

• Reduce energy consumption growth
• Use efficiency and conservation
• Economic growth still possible
• Develop non-fossil fuel supplies
• Solar electric, wind, solar thermal, biomass
• Grid, storage, forecasting and control optimized
  for non-fossil fuel supply utilization.

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Front 1Increasing efficiency and conservation
by 1.8 per yr
Stabilize demand growth. Allow economic growth.
Demand at 1.8/yr growth
Efficiency and conservation
Stable demand
Supply
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Front 2Increase renewable energy supply
Renewable energy supply
Conventional Supply
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Current renewable energy growth rates exceed
those required to transition to a fully renewable
energy supply.

• 2004 investment in renewables US 30 billion
• Investment in entire power generation sector
  150 billion
• Renewable energy capacity to 160 GW 4 of
  global power. 

http//www.ren21.net/globalstatusreport/RE2005_Glo
bal_Status_Report.pdf http//www.earthscan.co.uk/n
ews/article/mps/uan/508/v/3/sp/ IEA
http//www.oja-services.nl/iea-pvps/ AWEA
http//www.awea.org/pubs/documents/globalmarket200
3.pdf
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How should we invest the remaining fossil energy?
Electrical Generation
Liquid Fuel Production
Output
Input
Energy Input
Energy Output
Coal
Ethanol
Nat. Gas
Bio Diesel
Solar (PV)
(30 to 80 depending on site and technology)
Wind
Note Coal and Natural Gas energy output limited
to combustion efficiency at a maximum. Fuel
supply, plant construction and decommissioning,
and OM energy uses reduce output below
combustion efficiency. Solar, wind and bio can
have terrestrial energy output greater than one
since they are accessing solar energy entering
the terrestrial system from the sun. See
http//www.awea.org/faq/bal.html,
http//www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/knapp/PVEPBTPaper.
pdf
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What might a Wisconsin Renewable energy supply
look like?
Notes This is a rough estimate, only intended
to show magnitudes. Wisconsin current electrical
generation capacity 12,000 MW. Wind is not
necessarily all located in Wisconsin. Wind at 27
capacity factor. Solar at 1250 kWh/yr per rated
kW output.